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India-Pakistan
Pakistan ruler in poll deal with exile
2007-01-09
PAKISTAN military ruler Pervez Musharraf and exiled former prime minister Benazir Bhutto are on the verge of a remarkable political deal that will pave the way for presidential and parliamentary elections in the country in the next few months. Central to the arrangement will be Ms Bhutto's agreeing to General Musharraf's election to another five-year term as president - even though, ever since he seized power in a coup in 1999, she has been implacably opposed to his regime.

Reports yesterday said Ms Bhutto would also retreat from demands that General Musharraf step down from his job as army chief of staff and get out of military uniform before running for a further term as president. The quid pro quo for Ms Bhutto, who lives in exile in London and Dubai, would be an agreement from the military regime to allow her to return to Pakistan and lead her Pakistan People's Party in elections for a new National Assembly and provincial assemblies that will follow the presidential election expected in June.

Reports yesterday said that after months of intensive negotiations between emissaries from General Musharraf and representatives of Ms Bhutto, the President's side had agreed that she would not be arrested when she returned home and that corruption cases against her in Pakistan would be mothballed. After the elections, the power-sharing between different political forces would see the position of prime minister go to Ms Bhutto's PPP, reports said. But whether Ms Bhutto would become prime minister remained uncertain, as General Musharraf has repeatedly insisted he would not permit her return to power or her running for public office.

It seems there may be a difference between allowing her to return home and participating in the election process - despite the corruption charges hanging over her head and that of her husband, Asif Zardari - and actually being a candidate for office in the election. Attempts to contact Ms Bhutto last night proved fruitless, but it is believed her view is that if the PPP wins the assembly elections, the political momentum generated would sweep her back into office as prime minister. Trucking with General Musharraf is, however, a very high-risk strategy for Ms Bhutto, who has spent a lifetime promoting civilian rule and whose father was hanged by a previous military ruler, General Mohammad Zia ul-Haq.

Certainly, many who have supported her in the past, despite the reality that her periods in office as prime minister were badly tainted by allegations of corruption, will have misgivings about doing any deal with General Musharraf. But it appears she now recognises that General Musharraf is probably immovable by any means other than another military coup, and that she has no alternative but to accept a deal with him, even though aspects of it may be regarded as humiliating.

Given the extremely difficult political challenges confronting General Musharraf - mainly due to the rapidly increasing power of Islamic fundamentalist groups who support al-Qa'ida and the Taliban and want to see a hardline Muslim regime running Pakistan - most analysts believe he needs all the political help he can get, and having Ms Bhutto and the PPP on side would be an important addition.

Last night's reports speak of emissaries from General Musharraf and Ms Bhutto "nearing a final settlement" after months of protracted negotiation, though PPP officials appear skittish about just what stage the negotiations have reached.

There is also confusion about a possible role for the country's other former prime minister living in exile, Nawaz Sharif, who bases himself in London and is another former sworn enemy of Ms Bhutto with whom she now finds common cause. Like Ms Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif has been saying publicly that nothing in the world will stop him from returning home and contesting the elections.
Posted by:Fred

#2  this would presumably remove the MMA from power. Good if it happens. But I'll believe it when I see it.
Posted by: liberalhawk   2007-01-09 13:47  

#1  She mus like monkeys in uniforms
Posted by: Captain America   2007-01-09 08:12  

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