Somali and Ethiopian troops drove Islamic fighters out of the last major town before Mogadishu on Wednesday, and the government predicted the capital and stronghold of the radical Islamists would fall without a fight. Government spokesman Abdirahman Dinari said no assault was planned on Mogadishu because the forces of the Council of Islamic Courts were crumbling so fast. “Islamic courts militias are already on the run and we hope that Mogadishu will fall to our hands without firing a shot,” he said.The Islamic Courts movement had grown steadily in power for six months, until the dramatic entry into the war by Ethiopian troops last week.
That was after the Islamic courts, in a move of sheer brilliance, declared jihad on Aethiopia.
Since then, fortunes have changed dramatically with the Islamists in full retreat.
"Whuddya mean, 'they took us seriously'?"
On Wednesday, thousands of Ethiopian and Somali government troops were seen in tanks heading toward Balad, only about 30 kilometres away from Mogadishu, said Nadifo Ali Tifow, a resident in Qalimow village, along the same road. Former warlord Mohammed Dheere, who controlled the town of Jowhar before it was captured by the Council of Islamic Courts in June, led the Somali government troops back in, said resident Abshir Ali Gabre.
It's probably be a good idea for a series of unfortunate accidents to befall the "warlords," who've been revealed as being much better at being lords than at making war.
“We will attack Mogadishu tomorrow from two directions,” Mr. Dheere told the crowd, before the government denied that would happen.
Doesn't sound like he's on the planning committee. If Somalia's lucky, there's already a toaster sitting on the shelf over his bath tub.
Fighting could be heard at a military camp south of Jowhar and in the village of Lego. An Islamic official said his troops were simply entering a new phase in their battle. “Our snakes of defence were let loose, now they are ready to bite the enemy everywhere in Somalia,” said Sheik Mohamoud Ibrahim Suley. He did not elaborate, but some Islamic leaders have threatened a guerrilla war including suicide bombings in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital.
They do that sort of thing much better than they fight battles or govern.
Hundreds of people had fled Jowhar, anticipating major fighting, but others seemed resigned to it after suffering from drought and flooding over the last two years. “We do not know where to escape, we are already suffering from floods, hunger and disease,” Abdale Haji Ali said from Jowhar. “We are awaiting death.”
In Geneva, the UN refugee agency said it was preparing for the possible arrival of thousands of Somalis fleeing the fighting in neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia. Staff, trucks and emergency relief items for up to 50,000 people are being readied, UNHCR said.
Ethiopia sent fighter jets streaking deep into militia-held areas Sunday to help Somalia's U.N.-recognized government push back the Islamic militias. Ethiopia bombed the country's two main airports and helped government forces capture several villages.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said Tuesday that Ethiopian forces may soon wrap up their offensive against the Islamic militias that until recent days controlled most of the southern part of the country. Mr. Zenawi said he aims to severely damage the courts' military capabilities and allow both sides to return to peace talks on an even footing. He has said he would not send his troops into Mogadishu, which the Islamic movement has held since June.
A State Department spokesman in Washington signalled support Tuesday for Ethiopian military operations against Somalia, noting that Ethiopia has had “genuine security concerns” stemming from the rise of Islamist forces in its eastern neighbour.
Meanwhile, the chairman of the African Union Commission has called a meeting Wednesday in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, of the 53-nation AU, the Arab League, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, a seven-nation East African group, to try to end the fighting and resume dialogue between Somalia's warring parties.
The UN Security Council on Tuesday took no immediate action on a draft presidential statement circulated by Qatar calling for a cease-fire and withdrawal of foreign forces, specifying Ethiopian troops. The United States and several other nations objected to singling out Ethiopia and the call for a truce, saying talks and a political agreement are needed for stability before foreign forces can leave. The council agreed to continue discussions Wednesday.
Somalia was largely under the control of warlords until this past summer, when the Islamic militia movement pushed them aside. One critical issue is whether the central government can win the support of Somalis. Many resent Ethiopia's intervention because the countries have fought two wars over their disputed border in the past 45 years.
They keep saying that. The Somalis don't seem any more enamored of the Islamists than they were of the warlords. Either way, their lot in life seems to involve a lot of natural disasters followed by starvation.
Experts fear the conflict in Somalia could engulf the region.
That would depend on the region taking the conflict seriously, which it doesn't appear to do.
Islamic courts leaders have repeatedly said they want to incorporate ethnic Somalis living in eastern Ethiopia, northeastern Kenya and Djibouti into a Greater Somalia.
That way they can all live lives defined by natural disasters and starvation. And the Islamic courts can rule - not govern - even more poor souls whose lives were previously relatively stable and even free.
Any effort by the Somali government or Ethiopia to take the capital risks a disaster similar to the U.S. intervention in Somalia in 1992. That UN-sponsored mission ended in 1993, after Somali militiamen shot down a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter. Eighteen American servicemen were killed in the crash and vicious street fighting that preceded and followed, made famous in the book and movie Black Hawk Down.