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Science & Technology
Experts Puzzle Over Halt of Bird Flu
2006-12-11
Earlier this year, bird flu panic was in full swing: The French feared for their foie gras, the Swiss locked their chickens indoors, and Americans enlisted prison inmates in Alaska to help spot infected wild birds.

The H5N1 virus - previously confined to Southeast Asia - was striking birds in places as diverse as Germany, Egypt, and Nigeria, and a flu pandemic seemed inevitable.

Then the virus went quiet. Except for a steady stream of human cases in Indonesia, the current flu epicenter, the past year's worries about a catastrophic global outbreak largely disappeared.

What happened?

Part of the explanation may be seasonal. Bird flu tends to be most active in the colder months, as the virus survives longer at low temperatures. 'Many of us are holding our breath to see what happens in the winter,' said Dr. Malik Peiris, a microbiology professor at Hong Kong University. 'H5N1 spread very rapidly last year,' Peiris said. 'So the question is, was that a one-off incident?'
Posted by:.com

#13  stop with the evolutionary genetics already i'm just feeling a touch benign.
Posted by: god   2006-12-11 14:29  

#12  On the plus side, there are several things that can be done to prevent the disease. First and foremost is when you are out in public during an outbreak, to use hand sanitizer about six times a day. This is because it was recently proven that most colds and flus are spread by hand contamination.

Vitamin D3 (Cholecalciferol) (NOT vitamin D2), has recently been found to cause the body to secrete a chemical that erodes the casings of some viruses, which destroys them. Most people are vitamin D deficient.

Ordinary cranberry juice, taken in considerable quantity, has been proven to strongly limit virus adhesion to human cells, for certain viruses and bacteria. Unknown for the flu.

Zinc gluconate lozenges (Cold-eeze brand only), have been proven to strongly inhibit reproduction of viruses in the sinuses. Ordinary zinc supplements do not produce this effect, because their form of zinc is not readily uptaken by the mucous membranes.

Other ionic metals such as colloidal silver also have a reproductive-inhibition effect, but it has not been determined how they could be used for this purpose.

Weird one: The British recently did a study of how temperature relates to colds and flus, and discovered that only the feet seem to matter. That is, if a person's feet are cold, they have a significantly greater chance of catching colds and flus. No other body part even comes close.

However, the "cytokine storm" effect has been confirmed with the avian flu, so under NO circumstances should you take immune system enhancing chemicals. The storm effect happens when your immune system overreacts in fighting a virus and kills you.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2006-12-11 13:46  

#11  Mutations are random, yes, but sexual selection - an aspect of natural selection - is not. It is for this reason that hypothetical wheeled charismatic megafauna make a poor analogy for variation in viral strains.
Posted by: Excalibur   2006-12-11 13:43  

#10  I'm not really sure it has even halted at all. As this pic shows, the deadly bird flu has now reached Florida.

Posted by: anonymous5089   2006-12-11 13:33  

#9  no mo uro and Bobby: The cyclic waves of flu are typical for influenza. They are purely a product of both spread of the disease and incubation period.

For example, when the major epidemic hits, which it almost has to, eventually, because of the vast number of animals that are acting like small computers to generate the best strain; the progression will go like this:

1) Some small Asian village will almost be wiped out by the disease. However, unlike in the past, there will be a huge government response.

2) The disease will appear to be contained, and two weeks will pass without any new appearance of the disease in the area.

3) A few, sporadic cases will appear in outlying areas, and they will be quickly quarantined. Two more weeks pass.

4) Some larger outbreaks happen in the region, but it appears unlikely they have any relationship with "village zero".

5) A major city in the region gets a massive outbreak. Huge numbers of casualties, with national quarantine and international panic.

The trick of influenza is that it is working two stages ahead of where it *appears* to be working. So any response is already too late.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2006-12-11 13:31  

#8  Useful links for avian flu.

Bird Flu Breaking News:

http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/

New Scientist RSS feed for avian flu:

http://www.pheedo.com/f/newscientist_bird-flu

H5N1 blog:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/

Flu news blog:

http://www.fluhelp.org/news/

FluStar:

http://flustar.com/

FluWiki:

http://www.fluwikie.com/

CurEvents Avian flu:

http://www.curevents.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?f=40

WHO Avian flu:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/

Posted by: Anonymoose   2006-12-11 13:21  

#7  A'moose - you better bookmark this page so you can say, "I told you so".

I hope you're wrong, but it sure does sound credible!
Posted by: Bobby   2006-12-11 12:30  

#6  That's "deadly"...........

I WILL use preview..........................
Posted by: no mo uro   2006-12-11 12:30  

#5  "And only with the third or fourth wave will it suddenly explode."

Perhaps, and perhaps not.

Look, I'm not trying to say that avian flu cannot mutate to become widespread and dealy in humans, because that is certainly a possible outcome. I'm saying that it isn't a sure thing. Just because a hypothetical mutation would grant great competitive advantage to an organism is no guarantee that it will happen.
Posted by: no mo uro   2006-12-11 12:29  

#4  no mo uro: mutation may be near random, but natural selection isn't. Various strains of avian flu virus compete among themselves for the best characteristics to insure their spread.

Typically, this means lower mortality, longer incubation periods while evading immune response, upper respiratory tract virus density, and a bunch of other things.

To accomplish this, even viruses rely on lots of tricks. Mutation is just one. RNA piracy from related viruses and host cells is another. Different effects with different species is another.

This can be terribly complex. For example, they have just learned that African HIV virus uses the protozoan disease malaria to indirectly spread itself. With malaria infection, HIV blood density skyrockets for a time, making it much easier to spread.

Now whether this is intentional, or just good luck on the part of HIV, the effect is the same, the virus is propagated.

Avian flu is cyclic. Right now, in its "dormant" winter phase, new strains are being generated at an astounding clip throughout Asia. And even when it finally breaks out in a human epidemic, it will begin with a vicious outbreak followed by a pause in which they think they have stopped it somehow.

Then a second wave will hit. And another pause. And only with the third or fourth wave will it suddenly explode.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2006-12-11 09:25  

#3  Earlier this year, bird flu panic was in full swing

Earlier this year, the Main Stream Media induced faux bird flu panic was in full swing.

See, fixed it. No blood, no guts, no panic, no fear means no sales. Fake but True.
Deimos and Phobos the patron saints gods of yellow journalism.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2006-12-11 09:12  

#2  The assumption that evolution will always produce the most advantageous end result is a commonly held but incorrect understanding of the process.

Biologists sometimes describe this as the wheel problem. Plains animals would be best served (in terms of mobility) by having wheels instead of hooves. It would give them a huge advantage. But that doesn't mean that that is what WILL happen, because mutations are random.

It would certainly advantage the avian flu virus to infect humans more easily and therefore increase its own population, but evolution is random, and that means it may or may not happen.
Posted by: no mo uro   2006-12-11 07:26  

#1  ODDBALL > See what happens, Moriarty, when people stop eating long-dead bird carrion = road-kill.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2006-12-11 00:45  

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