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Iraq
Report: Insurgency is financially self-sustaining
2006-11-26
NEW YORK - The Iraq insurgency has become financially self-sustaining, raising tens of millions of dollars a year from oil smuggling, kidnapping, counterfeiting, corrupt charities and other crimes, The New York Times reported in Sunday editions.

According to a classified United States government report, a copy of which was obtained by the newspaper, groups responsible for many of the insurgent and terrorist attacks are raising an estimated $70 million to $200 million a year from illegal activities.

Some $25 million to $100 million of the total comes from oil smuggling and other criminal activity involving the state-owned oil industry aided by “corrupt and complicit” Iraqi officials, the Times said, citing the report.

As much as $36 million a year comes from ransoms paid over hundreds of kidnappings. Unnamed foreign governments -- identified in the past by senior U.S. officials as including France and Italy -- paid kidnappers $30 million in ransom last year alone, the report said.

The Times also quoted the report as saying: “If recent revenue and expense estimates are correct terrorist and insurgent groups in Iraq may have surplus funds with which to support other terrorist organizations outside of Iraq.”

The report, completed in June, was provided to the newspaper by U.S. officials in Iraq who told the Times they had done so in hopes that the findings could improve U.S. understanding of the challenges faced in Iraq.

According to the Times, the report holds out little hope that much can be done any time soon to stem the flow of funds to insurgents, acknowledging how little U.S. authorities in Iraq know about crucial aspects of insurgent operations.

And it paints a bleak picture of the Iraqi governmentÂ’s ability, or willingness, to take the necessary measures to contain the insurgencyÂ’s financing, the Times said.

Some terrorism experts outside the government who were given an outline of the report by the Times criticized it for a lack of precision and a reliance on speculation, the newspaper noted.

The report was compiled by an interagency working group that is investigating the financing of militant groups in Iraq. A Bush administration official confirmed the groupÂ’s existence and said it is studying how money was moved into and around the country, the Times said.

The official said the group, led by the National Security Council, drew its members from the CIA, the FBI, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the State Department, the Treasury Department, and the United States ArmyÂ’s Central Command, which oversees the war in Iraq. The group is led by Juan Zarate, deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism.

The report also concluded that the Iraqi insurgency no longer depends on the sums, in excess of $1 billion, that Saddam Hussein and his associates seized as his government collapsed.

The possibility that Iraq-based terrorist groups could finance attacks outside Iraq appeared to echo Bush administration assertions that prevailing in the war is essential to preventing Iraq from becoming a terrorist haven as Afghanistan became under the Taliban, the Times said, adding that that suggestion was one of many aspects of the report that drew criticism from Western terrorism and counterinsurgency experts working outside the government.

According to the Times, the report also said that U.S. efforts to follow the insurgency financing trails have been hampered by a weak Iraqi government and its new intelligence agencies; a lack of communication between U.S. agencies and between the Americans and the Iraqis; and the nature of the insurgent economy itself, chiefly driven by manual money transfers rather than more easily traceable means.

Posted by:GolfBravoUSMC

#4  A few months back the hostage working group at the embassy estimated that the kidnapping business alone (some unknown portion of which put cash in so-called insurgent hands) generated close to a billion dollars a year. Again, another guess.

Sorry, but's off by a scale of 20-30, IMHO
Posted by: Frank G   2006-11-26 17:17  

#3  A lot of the inputs may not be determinable. But, it seems to me the input of $30 million from our "allies" Italy and France can be determined fairly easily. We need to make it real clear that if they want to pay ransoms, we will not assist in searching or recovering victims. They're on their own.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-11-26 15:59  

#2  No mention of the funds coming from Saudi Iran and Syria!!!!
Posted by: Jererong Elmoger4617   2006-11-26 12:57  

#1  Hmmm. I'd join those who doubt this analysis, based on the inherent difficulty of knowing most of the inputs with any precision. My limited experience in these things is that this is just guess-work - but even less educated than most intel analysis is. No fault of those doing the analysis - this is simply a very difficult thing to assess.

A few months back the hostage working group at the embassy estimated that the kidnapping business alone (some unknown portion of which put cash in so-called insurgent hands) generated close to a billion dollars a year. Again, another guess.

Then you have the belief (I assume, based on reliable info) that major cash flows exist from supporters (both exile Iraqi and other) from nearby Sunnia Arab communities in Syria, Jordan, Egyp, and the Gulf. There seems little doubt that this is going on - and none of this comes from inside Iraq.

The way this thing is being pushed by the MSM seems odd, unless one steps back and sees that it's one more "oh no, we're doomed, the bad guys are SELF-SUSTAINING!" negative hit. Otherwise,it's too thin and complicated to merit front page headlines.

One small thing: another reminder that total energy price decontrol should have been the first thing done by CPA. Wimping out on "shock therapy" back then led directly to the creation of large criminal organizations based on smuggling. This not only continues to put money in terrorist hands, it has helped create or sustain large criminal networks that otherwise might not be there - but which are there now, and have been getting into new lines of business as there has been some progress on brining Iraqi fuel prices in line with the regional markets ....
Posted by: Verlaine   2006-11-26 12:38  

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