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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Walid Phares : Hezbollah's Offensive In Lebanon Has Begun |
| 2006-11-15 |
| According to sources and contacts – as well as statements made in Lebanon over the past few weeks – all analysis indicates that Hezbollah is on the verge of an all out offensive in Lebanon to crumble the "March 14" Seniora Government and to seize strategic control in the country. Following are few points deserving attention: 1. As predicted since July 12, (and posted on the Counterterrorism Blog), the aim of Hezbollah's summer war with Israel, was to provoke a "strike-back" at the Lebanese Government and reshape the balance of power in Lebanon to the advantage of the Teheran-Damascus axis. Nasrallah and his allies across the sectarian divide aimed at shifting the issue of disarming Hezbollah and militias (according to UNSCR 1559) to crumbling the government, which is supposed to implement this disarming process. 2. By mid-October, Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies had begun a political counter offensive aiming at "enlarging" the Seniora cabinet, as a way to paralyzing it further from the inside. The political discussions took longer than anticipated by Hezbollah. Hence, a decision was made in Tehran (and subsequently in Damascus ) to move forward. 3. The perceived results of the midterm elections in the US were read as positive by Tehran and its allies, in the sense that it froze vigorous reactions by the US against any Iranian-Syrian move in Lebanon via Hezbollah. The feelings in Tehran and Damascus, have been that if in the next weeks and months a "thrust" takes place in Lebanon to the advantage of the pro-Syrian camp, Washington will be in no position to react or counter. Ahmedinijad and Assad believe (or have been advised to believe) that "lobbies" are moving in Washington and Brussels to restrain any strong deterrence by the US against the "axis." The theory is that the Bush Administration is too busy "negotiating" with the new leadership in Congress to "dare" a mass move in the Middle East. The analysis also predicts that strong lobbies within the Democratic Party are now positioned to block any serious response to a change in geopolitics in Lebanon. It is believed that the window of opportunity won't be too long before the Administration and the upcoming Congress "understands" the Tehran-Damascus maneuver and create a unified response. Thus, the expectation is that Hezbollah and its allies were told to achieve their goals before the end of the year, and before the new Congress begin business on the Hill. 4. Hezbollah has mobilized its forces from all over the country to position them in the capital and eventually use them in moves in Beirut, the central and southern part of Mount Lebanon, where most government institutions are located. Nasrallah can also bring into "battle" the supporters of General Michel Aoun, the Syrian National-Socialists, the Baathists, and the pro-Syrian Sunni militias, the Islamic Fundamentalists paid by Syria, the Palestinian radicals and the security agencies still under the influence of Syria. This "huge" army can – technically – defeat the thin internal security forces of the government. The Lebanese Army is an unknown factor, with Hezbollah supporters in control of the military regions in the south, the Bekaa, southern suburbs and other positions. In short, the "axis army" is ready to engage in battle in Lebanon. The issue is when, how, and with what outcome. 5. The projected scenario is as follows: Hezbollah and Amal movement ministers will resign from the Government calling for the resignation of the Government. Check. The next move is to have Hezbollah, Amal, and their allies in the Parliament also resign, thus creating "conditions" for what they will coin as new elections and a collapse of the cabinet. Most of these moves have already been accomplished or are on the eve of being implemented. The pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud will declare the Government and the Parliament as "illegitimate," and call for early legislative elections. The latter, if they take place will be under the smashing influence of Hezbollah's weapons (a show of force was performed in the summer) and of the cohorts of militias and security agencies. Result: a pro-Syrian-Iranian majority in parliament, followed by the formation of an "axis" government in Lebanon. The rest is easy to predict: A terrorism victory. The question today is, how to stop this from happening? While it is very late in the process, the United States must respond in a strong bipartisan way, the Security Council should move immediately to chapter 7, and the Cedars Revolution to take the streets again. Short of these developments, the worse is to be feared on the eastern shores of the Mediterranean soon. This commentary first appeared in the World Defense Review on November 13, 2006. Dr. Walid Phares is Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and author of Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies Against America (Palgrave/St. Martin, 2005). He is also a Professor of Middle East Studies at Florida Atlantic University. |
| Posted by:anonymous5089 |
| #8 They're still there, SS3550? I thought that was just a little coincidence when the shift changed. |
| Posted by: Bobby 2006-11-15 14:39 |
| #7 In the war, Israel flattened the three major Hezbollah centers, including South Beirut. Hezbollah claims to have passed out $300 million in repair funds. The terrorists have also resupplied missiles to the front lines. This happens as the UN monitors cross border surveillance by the IAF. Israel has no alternative but to attack terror at its source: Iran. And they won't be alone. Carrier task forces are sitting in the Indian Ocean, waiting for orders. |
| Posted by: Sneaze Shaiting3550 2006-11-15 13:55 |
| #6 what was it that made the country choose Carter after Democrats forced the abandonment of Vietnam? what does it take to prevent something similar from happening again? |
| Posted by: Kalle (kafir forever) 2006-11-15 12:06 |
| #5 and since the War won't be over by 2008 -- what kind of President will rise to the occasion and lead the country? I see a lot of potential candidates focusing on anything but that issue. That would my most immediate solution -- finding and encouraging the right candidates -- no matter what GWB achieves with the Democrats, or what he doesn't. |
| Posted by: Kalle (kafir forever) 2006-11-15 12:03 |
| #4 Not doom and gloom. Just trying to be a realist and ready for future events. I see this as one campaign in a long war. It does mean that the next time Israel is attacked from Lebanon, the toll will be heavier and the outcome won't be clear-cut. Especially if Iran is allowed to continue is WMD programs. Which is the case. I don't have a realistic SOLUTION. I don't see NOW how we can continue to wage war on State Sponsors of terrorism. What I do see is a lack of Western political will to wage or win that war, while Moslems feel they have the wind in the sail. We have the military might but not the political will, in large part because our social and intellectual foundations have been thoroughly undermined for the past 50 years. 9/11 woke America -- but in what respect? Is it doom and gloom to opine that as of late 2006 we --the Western world-- have not strengthened the will and initiative to wage this war? and to wonder what it will take? I'll believe we didn't hit the snooze button if Iran gets hit (by the USA, not Israel) in the next 6-12 months. And even that wouldn't be enough. Are we going to drill our own oil and build up nuclear power plants, or keep sending money to Moslem tyrants? |
| Posted by: Kalle (kafir forever) 2006-11-15 11:57 |
| #3 so what's your realistic solution, Kalle? |
| Posted by: anon 2006-11-15 11:42 |
| #2 Or not. Sorry, Kalle, but I'm tired of this. I've been countering it all morning for what it is - nothing. Same old shit, day in, day out. Lots of fears projected and direness declared. Personal agendas and schedules unmet declared as failure. Yet we're still here. Israel's still there. Go figure, huh? My hands are wrung, my ankles bitten, my patience exhausted. Say Doom! You Doom & Gloom guys carry on. What will happen will happen. I'm worn out. Fugg it. |
| Posted by: .com 2006-11-15 11:40 |
| #1 The Lebanon campaign of 2006 will be remembered as a failure. A failure on Israel's part to crush Hizballah. A failure on our part to widen the battle to Syria and Iran. A failure on the part of the UN to enforce its resolutions. And finally a failure on the part of Middle East Moslems to clean up their act and support a fledgling democratic movement against tyrants. The consequences of these failures are developing. The ultimate consequence will be more violent death of innocents. Millions if not tens of millions of us. |
| Posted by: Kalle (kafir forever) 2006-11-15 11:29 |