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| Terror Networks |
| Al Qaeda: The Next Generation |
| 2006-11-08 |
| EFL A madrassa in Chingai, Pakistan -- a small village near the northwestern border with Afghanistan -- was destroyed and at least 80 people were reportedly killed by a powerful airstrike Oct. 31. There have been reports that Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's No. 2 man, was the intended target. Most of those killed are thought to have been teachers and students from the madrassa; however, the results of forensic tests to identify many of the victims are still pending, and al Qaeda militants eventually could be identified as among the dead. The madrassa that was struck was located a little more than a mile from the village of Damadola, the site of an airstrike in January that was also intended to kill al-Zawahiri. (He was not present at the time of the January attack but four other senior al Qaeda operatives reportedly were killed.) If al-Zawahiri indeed was the target of the Oct. 31 strike, it is clear that intelligence has led the U.S. and Pakistani governments to believe he is moving about in a very specific area of northwestern Pakistan. If al-Zawahiri survived this latest strike -- and if, as in the past, he wants to offer continued "proof of life" to his supporters and needle the United States -- he will be producing a video or audiotape quite soon. In fact, in the past there has been a discernible and consistent lag of about two to three weeks between the events that trigger al-Zawahiri's videos (which he mentions in his messages) and the release of As-Sahab productions. For instance, in the Damadola case, the strike occurred Jan. 13 and a video of al-Zawahiri -- taunting the United States for having missed him -- was released Jan. 30. Similarly, the tape eulogizing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was released June 23; the militant leader in Iraq was killed June 6. Using this pattern as a guide, we would expect As-Sahab productions to send out a banner ad, announcing a forthcoming video, to jihadist Web sites and message boards late this week or early next week, with the video airing a day or two later. In the interim, however, there is a question to be pondered: What if "proof of life" does not emerge? There long have been rumors that Osama bin Laden is dead or dying, and it is significant that al-Zawahiri -- who, some personal acquaintances have said, prefers the No. 2 position to the role of top leadership (believing it to be more powerful) -- has been the public face of al Qaeda for quite some time. So far this year, he has appeared in a dozen As-Sahab productions (compared to only five for bin Laden, whose spate of voice recordings in the first half of the year constituted an uncharacteristic media blitz). Supposing that al-Zawahiri could have been killed by the recent airstrike -- or will killed be by a future airstrike in the same region -- who might emerge to fill the power void? continued at the link |
| Posted by:ryuge |
| #2 Interesting post, Ryuge. One imminently anticipates the old man deigning to leave the Penthouse suite at the Quetta Hilton to film another spittle-flecked tirade against the West and the Joooos. |
| Posted by: Howard UK 2006-11-08 04:04 |
| #1 Sorry, didn't realize this was a premium membership article. I got in through a Google news link. |
| Posted by: ryuge 2006-11-08 02:44 |