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| Jim Geraghty: more from "Obi-Wan" |
| 2006-11-07 |
| Obi Wan Kenobi and I haven't heard much. Obi Wan was intrigued that in the RNC conference call, Ken Mehlman mentioned Montana, Michigan, and House seats in Georgia and Hawaii (!). The first two were in response to a question from Hugh Hewitt, but if any early data looked bad, Mehlman could have been more equivocal or tried to downplay those races. As it was, he seemed a bit enthused. (And if once-left-for-dead Michigan and Montana are looking good, how do places like Tennessee, Missouri, Rhode Island, Maryland or New Jersey look?) At noon, it's not clear what the party folks know, but they will know how the morning turnout, GOTV operations, etc. are going compared to the morning two years ago, or four years ago. I have yet to encounter any signal of low turnout in red-leaning areas. In fact, as the Hilton Head, S.C. downpour report from Dad indicated, Republicans seem to be turning out a lot, even if there's nothing particularly close or exciting on the ballot. A Kerry effect, maybe? Another report from Burke - turnout is comparable to last year's governor's race (at a polling place that seemed to have a lot of federal employees supporting Jim Webb, judging from bumper stickers in the parking lot). George Allen had better be getting good turnout in southern Virginia. By now, Obi notes, the folks in the "quarantine room" where the exit poll data is being collected have some idea of how the night is going. Something will slip out, sooner or later. Of course, both sides know this, and it's almost certain that there are those who will try to spread rumors, to affect the moods, and potential turnout, of those of us attached to the Internet and hungry for any data we can get. UPDATE: One last point - there's been nothing to indicate the Republican wave crested or slowed within the past day or two. Wish we had comprehensive data for one more day, but the big, deep, broad shift to the GOP may have hit at just the right time for this election. |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #1 They've already given up at The Corner. Then again, they're the ones who freaked out when the exit polls looked bad for W in 2004, so I'm not panicking (yet). |
| Posted by: Jonathan 2006-11-07 20:32 |