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Science & Technology
How Publicity Warps Reality: US Air Force, Hey Remember Us!
2006-11-03
AoS note: no yellow highlight in titles. Thanx.
November 3, 2006: For all the publicity they get, the U.S. Air Force MQ-1 Predator UAV doesn't get a lot of action. Only about 30 Predators are deployed overseas. Each Predator averages about 110 hours in the air each month. Each aircraft flies 6-7 sorties a month, each one lasting 17-18 hours on average. While the air force is working to create fifteen Predator squadrons, there are only four on active duty (one is for training and another belongs to SOCOM). Each Predator squadron has at least twelve UAVs, and sometimes as many as 24. Squadrons have 400-500 personnel. Only about two thirds of those troops go overseas with the UAVs. The rest stay behind in the United States, and fly the Predators via a satellite link.

However, most of the UAV work is done by over a thousand smaller (under ten pound) micro-UAVs like the Raven. The soldiers and marines work these little UAVs to death, because these tiny aircraft have become a matter of life-or-death. The troops control these micro-aircraft, and use them in combat operations daily. But the air force, and the manufacturers, have been successful at keeping the Predator in the news, even though Predator is not the major player in the UAV world.

The air force has bought about 250 Predators so far, and a quarter of those are not yet delivered. Most of the ones in use are Predator A's, which cost $4.5 and can stay in the air for up to 40 hours. Most of those still on order are $9 million MQ-9A Reaper (formerly called "Predator B"), which can carry two, or more, Hellfire missiles (or 500 pound smart bombs). The Reapers will serve in separate "attack squadrons." The Predators are in reconnaissance squadrons.

The initial buy of Reapers is for 36 aircraft, and nine sets of control equipment. Thus the Reaper will operate in sections of four aircraft, one of which can be in the air at a time. As with the Predator, Reaper flight crews (usually a pilot and one sensor operator) are based back in the United States, with only maintenance personnel going overseas.



Posted by:GolfBravoUSMC

#11  FWIW, I had the insane good luck to work with (support) both the raven UAV (Think toy plane with camera, controlled by company/BN) and the shadow-A UAV ( Predator's baby sibling, controlled by Bde/Div HQs)

Flying them into the ground pretty well summarizes what happend during OIF III. We could have used twice as many airframes of both systems. we were out of usable airframes before our tour ended. Very frustrating. lots of other quibbles and complaints, edited here for OPSEC reasons. Very useful, I hope we see lots more such systems in the future.

Air force may have done good at the theater/national level, and they were extremely useful logisticly, but down at our BCT they were irrelevant tacticly.

The only reason we had any AF personell at all in our AO was that the AF was tasked with EOD (!!) in our AO. Go figure.
Posted by: N guard   2006-11-03 21:20  

#10  OS, agreeed that that helps direct tactical ops. OTOH, there is great value as well in battalion level recon and surveillance -- wider AO awareness, much longer time on station etc.

A mix is probably called for. Heard the same stories re: Afghanistan, tho. I think part of the deal is that this is a new kind of asset and, apart from the political maneuvering to own mission, people are just beginning to realize how UAVs can/should change tactics and doctrine.
Posted by: lotp   2006-11-03 19:16  

#9  Let teh Af grab headlines as long as they dont try to take over the in-theater and battalion controlled assets from the peopel actually doing the fighting.

The whole "remote control" bullshit where teh AF was runnign everythign from Qatar is what screwed specops badly in the begining of Afghanistan's talib hunt. USAF wants to still silo too much stuff, and maintain the flyboy poopy-suit club.

Give us the little RPV's and we'll use em.
Posted by: OldSpook   2006-11-03 17:57  

#8  'Moose,
Fairchild destroyed the jigs and tooling for the A-10 some years ago. They were getting ready to build a bird called the T-46, which was supposed to replace the old Cessna T-37 as the USAF's basic jet trainer. Trouble is, Fairchild had limited plant space no money to store the old A-10 tooling - so out it went...

Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski   2006-11-03 16:47  

#7  I good question would be who would make UAV A-10 Thunderbolts? Fairchild Aviation was bought out by M7 Aerospace, who probably still has their design patents.

In truth, the 35-year-old design of the A-10 could be seriously upgraded. It would gain half a ton of payload: weapons, ammunition and fuel. It would need a ceramic plate armored underbelly, since instant pilot reaction is critical to flying a damaged aircraft, so it would be something to be avoided.

Heaven knows how its engines would differ. Much of the plane would be modular for ease of repair.

A different configuration for reconnaisance might be similar to the intelligence gathering capabilities of the (bastard child) OV-1 Mohawk, which was even less respected than the Warthog for its extraordinary abilities. It was a prop aircraft!

If you can imagine a prop version of a Warthog, able to fly at a sluggish 70mph, or as fast as 450mph, depending on circumstances. At the slow speed, it might double the flight time of the Warthog.

Again, with modern designs, this would be an extraordinary hunter-killer team.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2006-11-03 16:25  

#6  What's even more galling to the "old hat" Air Force command structure is that the majority of the UAV operators are young ENLISTED troops...

I can't wait until the Air Force can reconfigure the A-10 as a UAV, and build them by the thousands. Cutting the extra weight of that titanium "bathtub" and other "survivability features" for the PILOT would greatly enhance the capability of that aircraft. I'd even be willing to give them to the Army... Flying TANKS!
Posted by: Old Patriot   2006-11-03 14:46  

#5  So if my math is right the entire fleet of UAVs costs about what one B-2 costs?
Posted by: Glenmore   2006-11-03 14:19  

#4  This is the future of the Air Force, they better get used to it.
Posted by: 49 Pan   2006-11-03 13:49  

#3  The Air Force is really reliant on one thing only: mastery. But this is something most UAVs are currently lacking, they are too simple for mystique.

In the next few generations, this will change. AI and swarm AI will restore the sense of mastery to the Air Force.

In the individual case, a plane AI will "talk" to its ground "operator". For example, the plane will say to the ground operator, "I think I see something down there. I will check it out." And then it will show a picture of what it sees to its operator, while getting a closer look. That is, it will behave like a pilot talking to their co-pilot.

In turn, their co-pilot can watch other sensors to spot what hasn't been noticed by the AI. It sounds ridiculously complex, and it is, but it is not unrealistic.

With a swarm AI, the ground operator acts like the lead bee telling the swarm to attack a bear. He directs the swarm, but the individual UAVs determine their own part in it, and avoid getting in each others way.

The ground operator can be any one of the swarm, attacking and pulling back to see where to attack next, switching between UAVs for different perspectives.

But, in either of these cases, mastery is the key to operating effectively.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2006-11-03 13:47  

#2  ...I'd give anything to know what names the crews are giving these beasts.:)
The last time I was at Red Flag in 1998, the first Predator units had just stood up and I had a chance to work with one of them for a day. The troops were set aside from the rest of the base, and there was a definite attitude problem on the part of the fighter drivers at Nellis, but a Lieutenant told me then that it wouldn't be long before somebody was on their knees calling for a Predator.

Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski   2006-11-03 13:20  

#1  Most of those still on order are $9 million MQ-9A Reaper (formerly called "Predator B"), which can carry two, or more, Hellfire missiles (or 500 pound smart bombs).

Don't Fear the Reaper
Posted by: Mike   2006-11-03 12:37  

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