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| Africa Horn |
| Counterterrorism Blog : The Islamic Courts Union Readies a Final Push Into Baidoa |
| 2006-10-25 |
| By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross My most recent article for The Weekly Standard (co-authored with Bill Roggio of The Fourth Rail) details the alarming rise of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in Somalia. On June 5, the ICU won control of Mogadishu, and it has steadily made strategic gains throughout the country since then. The transitional federal government (TFG) is now hunkered down in the south-central Somali city of Baidoa. The situation in Baidoa has been precarious for some time, as the ICU has demonstrated its capacity to take the city. There are now signs that the ICU may be beginning its final push into Baidoa to crush the transitional government. Members of the ICU have indicated that this final push is coming. Today the number two leader of the ICU, Hassan Turki, announced the group's intention to chase the transitional government from Baidoa. SomaliNet News reports that Turki promised to bring all of Somalia under the ICU's rule, and that he declared war on the semiautonomous regions of Somaliland and Puntland, which have been resistant to the ICU's rule. Adnkronos International reports that unnamed members of the ICU leadership told the pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat that an attack on Baidoa is now planned. Although the presence of Ethiopian troops protecting Baidoa may have previously deterred the ICU's advance, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys (the head of the ICU's shura council) has now declared war on them: "We have been asking the Ethiopians to leave our country for a long time. This is the end of that request. We are now telling them that from now on, their graves will be littered everywhere in Somalia. . . . We will now start fighting. I am calling on all Somalis wherever they are to start jihad against the invaders and those who support them." My sources in military intelligence also believe that the ICU's final drive toward Baidoa is coming. This is an important situation to follow. If the ICU is set on taking Baidoa, they will in all likelihood not be stopped. There are, however, two critical questions when their final push comes. The first is whether the ICU ends up triggering a war with Ethiopia in the process: there are reportedly around thirty Ethiopian armored vehicles in the vicinity Baidoa, as well as Ethiopian roadblocks designed to protect the city. The second question is whether critical TFG leaders are captured or killed by the ICU, or whether they are able to escape to Ethiopia or another friendly country. It is clearly preferable that TFG leaders escape alive to serve as a thorn in the ICU's side. In fact, the Ethiopian armored vehicles may be stationed around Baidoa not to serve a defensive purpose, but rather to whisk away the TFG leadership when the attack comes. |
| Posted by:anonymous5089 |