If it gets under $50 a barrel on election day both Tom Delay and Mark Foley will get re-elected. | (AP) Oil prices sank to their lowest level in nearly eight months Tuesday as doubts mounted that OPEC is on the verge of slashing its output by almost 4 percent.
Analysts said the 1 million barrel a day cut sought by some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries does not appear to have the support of Saudi Arabia, the cartel's largest producer, and is therefore unlikely to be implemented. "This has been a complete disaster" for OPEC, said Michael Guido, director of commodity strategy at Societe Generale in New York.
Guido said the market is extremely skeptical that OPEC members are willing to voluntarily sell less oil right now, given that prices are twice as high as they were three years ago _ even after a recent 25 percent decline. Even if there is a formally announced output cut of 1 million barrels a day, it might not have much impact, Guido said, because "the market is completely suspect of who's going to comply."
We, of course, should do everything we can under the table to ensure that the OPEC members cheat like mad. | Prices could conceivably fall to $50 a barrel, Guido said, if economic growth slows and if the Northern Hemisphere winter is not particularly cold.
On Tuesday, light sweet crude for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange declined by $1.44 to settle at $58.52 -- the lowest close since Feb. 16. November Brent crude at London's ICE Futures fell 75 cents to $59.79 a barrel.
Also on Tuesday, the U.S. government said winter heating bills are expected to be slightly lower for most families across the nation, with the highest reductions for those who use natural gas. Families using natural gas should expect to pay an average of $119 less during the upcoming winter compared with last year, a decrease of 13 percent, the Energy Department said. Those heating their homes with fuel oil will pay $91 more, an increase of 6 percent, it said.
OPEC is not scheduled to meet until December, though there is talk of a possible emergency meeting before then. The last time OPEC trimmed its output _ by 1 million barrels a day _ was December 2004 when oil traded slightly above $40 a barrel. Still, the uncertainty has helped to discourage aggressive selling near-term.bic feet. |