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| Israel-Palestine-Jordan |
| Debka: Syria and Iran Plan Pre-emptive Attack On Israel To Prevent US Strike |
| 2006-10-08 |
| Our military and Washington sources read as preparatory justification the Syrian ruler Bashar Asad’s statement Saturday, Oct. 7, that he expects an Israeli attack. He was speaking in an interview to Kuwaiti paper al-Anba. Asad’s Iranian-backed war plan would serve the purpose of forcing the Americans to divide their military assets between a strike against Iran and the defense of their allies in the Persia Gulf, Israel and US forces in Iraq. Both are seriously looking at a Syrian attack on the Golan which would escalate into a full-blown Syrian-Israeli war and a second Hizballah assault from Lebanon. Asad’s remark that during the Lebanon hostilities, he was under pressure from the Syrian population to go to war against Israel and liberate the Golan is the most direct threat of belligerency of all his four Golan statements in the last month. He is implying that he stood up to the pressure once but may not do so again. And for the benefit of the Americans, the Europeans, the Saudis and the Egyptians - all of whom are pretty fed up with him – Asad is posing as the picture of self-restraint; anyone else in his place, he implies, would have taken advantage of the Lebanon war and made a grab for the Golan. Therefore, he is saying, he deserves to be treated with the respect due to a strategic asset by Western and moderate Arab powers instead of being targeted for an ouster. The Syrian ruler would not threaten war without guarantees from Iran. According to DEBKAfile’s sources, Asad and Iran’s supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are prompted by the following motives: 1. Tehran is not prepared to wait passively for the Americans to build up their assault force in the Gulf and strike its nuclear facilities. A pre-emptive attack would suit them better. 2. Tehran and Damascus have not missed the debilitating crisis in which Israel’s political and military leadership are sunk since the Lebanon war. They do not propose to wait until the IDF pulls itself together enough to handle fresh aggression. 3. Both accept Israel’s deputy prime minister Shimon Peres’ assessment that Israel’s cities are not prepared for missile attack. Iran and Syria take it for granted that Israeli leaders understand they cannot afford to launch missiles against either one of them for fear of reprisal in kind. 4. Syria believes that if Hizballah could stand up to the Israeli army in Lebanon, its commandoes can capture sections of the Golan and walk off with an easy victory. 5. Tehran figures that the Bush administration is coming to the end of its patience in Iraq and preparing for a major review of its position there. The influential U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman, John Warner, said Friday that Iraq's government had 60 to 90 days to control the violence that threatens civil war or the United States would have to reconsider its options. This gives the Maliki government in Baghdad up to December or January to de-escalate if not halt the sectarian war engulfing the country. Iran, Syria and Hizballah would not be averse to disrupting the American Iraq timeline by attacking Israel and putting the Bush administration on the spot, forced to address three warfronts simultaneously. Golly. |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #19 Heh, Pappy - and when asked for an explanation for vague or silly assertions, none are ever given. That's not the RB way, that's the troll way. |
| Posted by: .com 2006-10-08 21:37 |
| #18 Sunnis are all but begging the US to neutralize the Shiite threat. You've been beating this pro-Sunni drum for weeks. Give it a rest. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2006-10-08 21:11 |
| #17 Thank you, Shieldwolf. That's very helpful information. May God keep his hand over Israel, and may they never never need it. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2006-10-08 20:14 |
| #16 Why did they bring a company of Muslim Chechneyans into Lebanon ? Strictly pro-Muslim PR. They could well lead the Hezb attack, no ? I'm confident that The French ? Probably frog legs for dinner. In their military capacity, the French are more properly referred to as escargot. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-10-08 19:27 |
| #15 Does anyone think any move by Asshat or the Mullahs is not well known in advance by the Russians ? Why did they bring a company of Muslim Chechneyans into Lebanon ? They could well lead the Hezb attack, no ? The French ? Probably frog legs for dinner. |
| Posted by: SpecOp35 2006-10-08 19:22 |
| #14 Excellent post, Shieldwolf. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-10-08 17:25 |
| #13 I will remind people of the article within the past 3 weeks that commented on the fact that the Israelis were using expensive air transport to bring all the JDAMs and other precision munitions straight into Israel from the depots in the US. The Israelis got permission because of the Hib'allah war to buy a LOT more of those weapons, and the US sold those to them from on-hand stores. They also got permission to get a whole lot more of the nasty ole cluster bombs for aircraft, and the cluster rockets for the MLRS units. The pros in the Israeli military and intelligence have been working around Olmert to defend their homeland from what is being seen as an inevitable mass Arab assault utilizing troops from Syria, Hizb'allah, and Hamas in a three prong/three front war : the Golan Heights, Southern Lebanon, and the Gaza/West Bank zones. The Iranians need the West to blink or pullback so they can get their "A-Bomb for Allah" completed, and they seem to be spending the money, the time, the equipment, and the political capital to set up this war as a diversion or even a Tet-style propoganda victory. |
| Posted by: Shieldwolf 2006-10-08 17:13 |
| #12 There is no scenario in which an attack on Israel by Iran and Syria, would be met with conventional weapons. Bullshit. We do not need to deploy nuclear weapons against Iran and their use against Syria would be hunting rabbits with a Howitzer. Israel most certainly will not make any first use of nuclear weapons. Sunnis are all but begging the US to neutralize the Shiite threat. Crushing the Baathist and Ayatollah tyrannies is not worth the loss of a single US or Israeli soldier. And your point is? For the umpteenth time, we don't need to occupy these two-bit Muslim shitholes with troops. We can dismantle them from the air with JDAMs or use a wave of cruise missiles to completely devastate either foe. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-10-08 15:42 |
| #11 Gesundheit! |
| Posted by: Bobby 2006-10-08 15:10 |
| #10 There is no scenario in which an attack on Israel by Iran and Syria, would be met with conventional weapons. Sheesh, Snease. |
| Posted by: .com 2006-10-08 15:04 |
| #9 There is no scenario in which an attack on Israel by Iran and Syria, would be met with conventional weapons. Sunnis are all but begging the US to neutralize the Shiite threat. Crushing the Baathist and Ayatollah tyrannies is not worth the loss of a single US or Israeli soldier. We cheapen our own lives by valuing the lives of terrorists. |
| Posted by: Snease Shaiting3550 2006-10-08 14:49 |
| #8 The situation near the Israelian, Lebanese border has become very difficult now. As "Kofi da Comedian" has deployed his mulinational force in that area. The peace loving hizbollah protecting UN forces will be caught right in the middle. Maybe Syia's commando's will have to wear blue helmets during their operations. |
| Posted by: Unereck Creatle7408 2006-10-08 13:48 |
| #7 it's a post as well.... |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-10-08 13:35 |
| #6 Here's the link: Hezbollah, Big Miscalculations Militia Leaders Caught Off Guard By Scope of Israel's Response in War |
| Posted by: Lancasters Over Dresden 2006-10-08 13:24 |
| #5 Zenster: Today's WaPo has an interesting piece on how the Hezbo leadership misjudged Israel's reaction to the unprovoked murder and kidnapping incident that sparked the recent war. Very clear that not only the Hezbos miscalculated, but so too did the Israelis, who failed to push quickly to secure border towns that were inadequately defended by Hezbo fighters in the first week of hostilities. Hopefully, if Syria and Iran actually attempt to carry out such madness, Israel (and the US) will go for broke and leave these two miscreant nations in shattered ruins. "In speeches and iconography, Hezbollah has cast the war as a "divine victory." But a reconstruction of the period before and soon after the seizure of the soldiers reveals a series of miscalculations on the part of the 24-year-old movement that defies its carefully cultivated reputation for planning and caution. Hezbollah's leadership sometimes waited days to evacuate the poor, densely populated neighborhood in southern Beirut that is its stronghold. Only as Israeli warplanes began reducing the headquarters to rubble did they realize the scope of what the Israeli military intended. Hezbollah fighters were still planning to train in Iran the very month that the soldiers were seized; Hezbollah leaders in Beirut had assured Lebanese officials of a relatively uneventful summer. In addition, Lebanese analysts say Israeli hesitation in the early part of the war allowed Hezbollah, caught off guard, time to prepare its defenses. By the time Israeli troops entered in force, more than a week later, Hezbollah's men were in place in villages like Aita al-Shaab. "--Inside Hezbollah, Big Miscalculations Militia Leaders Caught Off Guard By Scope of Israel's Response in War By Anthony Shadid Washington Post Foreign Service Sunday, October 8, 2006; Page A01 |
| Posted by: Lancasters Over Dresden 2006-10-08 13:22 |
| #4 Both are seriously looking at a Syrian attack on the Golan which would escalate into a full-blown Syrian-Israeli war and a second Hizballah assault from Lebanon. Someone had better tell the UNFIL soldiers and those Russian platoons that things might get a little hot in no time at all. Should Syria's little stunt come to pass, Israel had better find the gumption to start blowing away huge chunks of Lebanon and Syria. Any failure of resolve could prove deadly instead of just crippling, as it did last time. When push actually comes to shove, underestimating America's determination is often a fatal error and we had best be ready to drive this point home to Damascus and Tehran. Iran, Syria and Hizballah would not be averse to disrupting the American Iraq timeline by attacking Israel and putting the Bush administration on the spot, forced to address three warfronts simultaneously. Our military must finally evolve away from ground based conflict and get used to the notion of merely dropping in to break a whole lot of shit without any infantry backup. If they can just get over this fixation, we would have no problem blowing Iran and Syria straight to hell for their collective misdeeds. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-10-08 12:42 |
| #3 Stealth bombers out of Whiteman could be there in what, 10 - 12 hours? |
| Posted by: RJB in JC MO 2006-10-08 12:16 |
| #2 hmmmmm - how many bombers and fighters are based in the airbases in western Iraq? |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-10-08 11:59 |
| #1 Not that different from their strategy in the 67 Six Day war, which Israel came close to losing. |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-10-08 11:47 |