From Rantburg's Hurricane Center on the lovely and talented Space Coast....The newest long-range forecast put Florida in the storm's sights. The storm's maximum sustained winds increased to 75 mph, just above the threshold for a hurricane, said the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Ernesto could grow into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday, menacing a broad swath of the Gulf Coast including hurricane-ravaged New Orleans, the hurricane center said earlier.
The five-day forecast issued today showed Ernesto bending toward the northeast after it enters the Gulf of Mexico. The center of the forecast cone takes the storm north of the Tampa Bay region on Thursday and over Jacksonville on Friday morning.
The southern coast of Haiti issued a hurricane warning early today. The storm could dump 6 to 12 inches of rain on the island, with up to 20 inches possible in some areas, the hurricane center said. A hurricane watch was in effect for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where 3 to 5 inches of rain were possible. Fisherman were warned to return to shore -- with tides of up to 3 feet above normal expected.
The latest forecasts have moved Ernesto's projected path far to the right -- which is bad news for Florida's Gulf Coast.
For the whole freakin' state, actually...the projected path covers all of Florida, most of Georgia and a big chunk of South Carolina.
Taking about their computer models used in the five-day prediction, National Hurricane Center forecasters said today: "All of the global and regional models now agree on recurvature over the eastern Gulf of Mexico around 96 hours ... and take Ernesto northeastward across the central or northern Florida Peninsula by 120 hours. The official track is similar to but a little west of the consensus models."
On Tuesday morning, Ernesto is forecast to be over west-central Cuba with sustained winds of 80 mph. On Wednesday, the storm -- still moving northwest -- will be west of Key West with 90 mph winds. On Thursday morning, Ernesto is forecast to be west of Fort Myers as a major hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph, fueled by the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. At this point, computer models have the storm taking a right turn toward Florida.
During late Thursday and early Friday, Ernesto is forecast to move northeast across the Florida peninsula, making landfall north of Tampa Bay and cutting across the state over Gainesville and Jacksonville. It is forecast to be over Jacksonville Friday morning with 80-mph winds.
Well, kiddies, am off to stock up at Publix while my neighbors sleep in. Got to get the usual things...water, canned foods, and beer for the Tsar. Hopefully ol' Nesto will calm down a bit before he stops by.