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| Israel-Palestine-Jordan |
| Ehud Olmert is brilliant |
| 2006-08-12 |
| To understand what happened during the last month, we need to consider several questions. (A) What Israel needs re Lebanon? (B) What is the opposition Israel faces? (C) How quickly it can be accomplished? What Israel needs is: (i) to hold South Lebanon up to the Litani = defensible border, and (ii) freedom to retaliate/preempt terror attacks from the rest of Lebanon. The opposition = (i) Lebanese & (ii) the rest of the World. The last includes our only ally USA, for two reasons. (i) USA has plans for Lebanese democracy (won't work any better than Iraqi democracy, but...). (ii) USA has a, not just ideological, interest in survival of Israel—but not in Israel powerful enough to be independent of USA. The process simply cannot be accomplished in one stroke (vide Iraq where US military won in a few weeks, and been bleeding for 3 years. Or, for that matter, the first (1982) IDF incursion into Lebanon). Now, what IDF managed to accomplish under the "incompetent" leadership of Olmert? The Lebanese (a) South Lebanese As the 1982 - 2000 period shown, Israel cannot hold South Lebanon with its population. Right now, the population is mostly gone, and their support infrastructure is being systematically destroyed in the process of Hizbi hunting. (b) Rest of the country. Suffered a significant degradation of its infrastructure and will require significant international help to rebuilt. And given Arab (Muslim or Christian) venality, we are talking (i) huge sums and (ii) fighting over the loot (there is also a minor advantage of less money for Paleos). Rest of the World. One of Israel's principal enemies, MSM, suffered a significant loss of credibility. Another, the UN, appears to be a winner now, but once it confronts the realities on the ground ... Bush's administration suffered more than a little embarrassment caving in to the Fwench. This being an election year, I expect to see a competition between Rep & Dem as to who is more pro-Israel. To summarize, Israel will start the next round (does anybody here doubts there's going to be a next round?) with some advantages. |
| Posted by:gromgoru |
| #13 Lebanon = Syria = North Korea > US-the West needs to ascertain the true intent of these nations' top leadership or influential elites vv IRAN-CHINA. In any case, I doubt Dubya will allow or support any scheme which does not finally halt the shelling/terror agz Israel, nor allows Radical Iran + war/terror-centric Islamist fundamentalism to dominate any ME Muslim nation regardless of like or dislike for Israel. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2006-08-12 22:03 |
| #12 Time will show whether Olmert is a genius. I'm not convinced now. It would be interesting to run an experiment: let Israel try to stand completely independent of the USA. Fortunately, experiments like this cannot be run. Alliances go both ways. We support Israel, and in return, we expect Israel not to sell their advanced technology to enemies of the USA - like AWACs for China. |
| Posted by: SR-71 2006-08-12 18:49 |
| #11 what spod sed. |
| Posted by: RD 2006-08-12 18:26 |
| #10 Olmert is a perfect example of why you don't want a socialist, leftist, or lawyer running things. He does not have the support of the IDF members and will be gone in 2 months time. He has allowed Iran and Syria through Hizb'allah to claim an Arab/Shite victory against Israel. It doesn't matter that they are surounded in rubble this has impact in the tribalist mind. They beat Israel. Israel is now less safe. The US is in a weaker position in Iraq. This is a huge screw up and it's impact will be felt for years. Hizb'allah was allowed to win by Olmert's half actions and incrementalism. |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet of Doom 2006-08-12 16:39 |
| #9 US support is an article of faith for Israel. They know full well that the only reason that Israel survived the Yom Kippor War was the unqualified support given by Richard Nixon. One of the main reasons it has survived since then was the nuclear arsenal developed shortly thereafter and the blood money the US has paid for the past 30 years to neutralize Egypt. The annual economic and military aid along with the special status given to Israel for military technology helps too. |
| Posted by: RWV 2006-08-12 14:15 |
| #8 I don't do exact quotes, because I have no memory, but IIRC, Napoleon once said never to assume incompetence was automatically malice and willful intent. |
| Posted by: anonymous5089 2006-08-12 14:13 |
| #7 I'm sorry, but I just can't give any credibility to the view that Olmert's dithering was part of a grand scheme. No Israeli would consciously start out to diminish the reputation of the IDF and elevate Hezbollah to equal status with the IDF. Perhaps the title is intended to be ironic. In any event, Olmert won't be in power for more than a month or two after the ceasefire begins. He has committed political suicide by fighting a hesitant, halfhearted war. The IDF is now viewed as beatable and that is not good for the future of Israel and Israelis. |
| Posted by: RWV 2006-08-12 14:11 |
| #6 ?? HZB can shot against Israel UNIFIL will make nothing. Israel cant answer back because those nice yelow HZB flags with Blue flags at 50m will be out of reach. External interventionism will even increase more pressure in Israel. Every time the "international community" pressures only makes that to those that are easier to be pressured. |
| Posted by: Clerert Uneamp2772 2006-08-12 12:11 |
| #5 Forgot to add. Reconstruction of Lebanon only through UN. |
| Posted by: gromgoru 2006-08-12 11:50 |
| #4 Consider Jordan, Zhang Fei. |
| Posted by: gromgoru 2006-08-12 11:40 |
| #3 Yep, fix it yourself, the expense will keep you poor and weak for a long time, maybe poor and weak enough that you can't afford any further troublemaking for a good long time. |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2006-08-12 10:10 |
| #2 the US should refuse to pay for rebuilding the south leb infrastructure. F*&k em. They support Hezbollah, they can live in rubble |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-08-12 09:30 |
| #1 g: USA has a, not just ideological, interest in survival of Israel—but not in Israel powerful enough to be independent of USA. Israel can't be powerful enough to be independent of the US. Not in a world where it needs foreign weaponry and trade to keep its defense and economy going. Not unless it can magically generate another 70m Israelis in a hurry. Germany and France can be independent because of their large populations. Not Israel. No one's going to embargo either country. Israel is such a nit that it's an easy target for arms and trade embargos. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2006-08-12 09:26 |