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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| DEBKA: Bin Jubeil - Lessons Learned |
| 2006-07-25 |
| After overwhelming the Hizballah stronghold of Bin Jubeil in southern Lebanon Tuesday July 25, Israeli armed ground forces and tanks are preparing to sweep forward to sanitize the townÂ’s satellites. Israel lost two tank personnel: 1st Lieutenant Lotan Slavin, 21 from Moshav Hatzeva, and 1st Sgt Kobi Smileg, 20, from Rehovot. Hizballah is reported by IDF sources to have lost 100-120 Hizballah fighters. IsraelÂ’s immediate military mission now is to capture or subdue Bin JubeilÂ’s five satellite villages, where 300 Hizballah fighters are sheltering: Ain Ebel, Hannine, Deble, Yaroun and Rmaich, the latter two very close to the Lebanese-Israeli border. These fighters know they are trapped in a tight noose; they cannot escape or hope for help, whether in the form of reinforcements or weapons. Monday night, Israeli forces dropped leaflets over these villages offering them the option of laying down their arms and saving their lives. The language was deliberately vague. It was not clear whether the men who surrendered would be allowed to go back to their families or, more likely, taken prisoner to be held against the release of IsraelÂ’s kidnapped soldiers. The Olmert government would thus hold a card for overruling the Hizballah condition for jailed terrorists to be freed as the price for the Israeli hostages, which with Israeli prime minister has rejected, and offer instead an exchange of war prisoners. The Bint Jubeil operation taught Israeli war planners three lessons: 1. It did not help reduce the rocket fire against Israel. The number of launchers and rockets found in the small town was minimal. Any missile crewmen who may have been deployed there had moved to other locations ahead of the Israeli assault. 2. Bin Jubeil and its satellite villages are only one small center at the southern end of the central sector of the south. There are dozens such clusters across the region. they will have to be flushed out one by one, entailing prolonged military action and exposing the troops to more casualties. 3. The IDF found that certain local elements, which once cooperated with Israel forces during their 24-year occupation of South Lebanon until the May 2000 withdrawal, were still willing to be helpful. Their assistance shortened the Bint Jubeil operation and made its completion possible barring scattered gunfire early Tuesday, July 25. Hizballah too had some lessons to draw: While inflicting losses on Israel forces in the battles for towns and villages, HizballahÂ’s losses are many times greater. They cannot stand up to the superior firepower leveled against them by a combination of tanks, special operations units and air force. Therefore fighters in the south have been instructed to discontinue face-to-face combat with Israeli troops. Instead, they were told to withdraw from the bult-up areas and wage guerrilla warfare from woods, forests, dry river beds, and fruit orchards. Israeli forces are therefore braced for stealthy Hizballah strikes from ambush against tanks, infantry and command posts. Once they have cleansed the five villages around Bin Jubeil, Israeli war commanders face a choice of one out of three options, given the limitation of the small number of troops on the ground: First: The Western Sector running from the orchards and banana groves south of Tyre which includes the Palestinian Rashidiya refugee camp up to Mansoura, where Hizballah has concentrated a large force, and including Burj a-Shamali and Zabqine, southeast of Tyre. This large enclave of southwestern Lebanon is saturated with Hizballah rockets launchers of different types and fighting strength. Second: The Central Sector, which would entail the Israeli Bin Jubeil force heading north to take over Tebnine and deepening its thrust into South Lebanon up to 20 km from the Israeli border. Third: The Eastern Sector, where Israeli forces would home in on Khiam on the road between the Israeli border town of Metula to the Lebanese village of Marjayoun which commands the Hatzbani River. From there, they way would be open to the Nabatiya plain and HizballahÂ’s main South Lebanon command center near the village of Taibe. Monday, morning, Israeli warplanes struck Nabatiya. Lebanese sources report seven people were killed. DEBKAfileÂ’s military sources describe the Hizballah command center as housed in a fort called Beck House which belongs to the AsÂ’ad clan, for many years the feudal lords of all southern Lebanon. Whichever direction IsraelÂ’s high command chooses for the next stage of the war will necessitate proceeding at a slow pace, whether because of an insufficiency of men on the ground, the risks of troop and civilian casualties or the complexity of their missions. The snailÂ’s pace of the IDFÂ’s advance means that HizballahÂ’s rocket offensive against northern Israel cannot be completely disabled in the near term, and that Hassan Nasrallah and his overlords in Tehran and Syria have enough time to come up with fresh initiatives while topping up HizballahÂ’s resources as they are depleted. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #27 This guy is just wrong. Integrity or lack there of comes clean even on the internet. BTW TW I dont know what the internet def of SPoD is either. |
| Posted by: 49 Pan 2006-07-25 21:39 |
| #26 Hey, "lh" is safe. BTW, he only posts from work, it seems, so you probably won't get an answer, tw. |
| Posted by: cruiser 2006-07-25 20:13 |
| #25 I, at least, do not know what "sock puppet" means on the web. Please explain, liberalhawk. Even so, the gentleman in question did not call himself just "sock puppet", but the full "Sock Puppet of Doom", which nym has a long and illustrious history here at Rantburg, and his own website besides. Not cricket at all. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2006-07-25 20:05 |
| #24 Lambreth? I thought it was Lambchops. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-07-25 19:36 |
| #23 SPoD - Who owns who? Come to momma. |
| Posted by: Sherry Lewis 2006-07-25 19:34 |
| #22 In deed the post in my name was not from me. I would have been found unfit for military service. This person has been asked to stop using my handle. liberalhawk you will note I own the domain name. There is only one SPoD and that is me. "Lambreth" |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet of Doom 2006-07-25 18:51 |
| #21 I think they should take off and nuke the place from orbit. It's the only way to be sure. |
| Posted by: kelly 2006-07-25 17:51 |
| #20 Lonely little guy. Sad. |
| Posted by: 6 2006-07-25 17:29 |
| #19 how can you steal an identity from a sock puppet? Are we forgetting what sock puppet means on the net? |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2006-07-25 14:56 |
| #18 Yep, when I was in the Rangers our motto was "We OWN the night" and they still do. Clearly, you are not the real SPoD. It is really, really rude to steal another's nym. Real Rangers don't steal from citizens, sir. And if 49 Pan (still in active service, unlike you, sir) is any example, never unnecessarily rude, either. Behave appropriately or go away. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2006-07-25 14:16 |
| #17 Yeasterday's news footage showed tanks patrolling and some resupply convoys and both were white lighting it. I was a bit surprised and did not see NVG mounts on any of the helmets. |
| Posted by: 49 Pan 2006-07-25 12:28 |
| #16 Probably one thing not mentioned is that much of the IDF 'A' team is still in Gaza (where the kill ratio is more like several hundred to one). If the Egyptians succeed in getting a cease fire in Gaza, the IDF in Lebanon gets better. BtW, the fact that the Egyptians are working hard on a cease fire is pretty strong evidence that Egypt wants to see Hezballah hurt bad. |
| Posted by: mhw 2006-07-25 12:22 |
| #15 Yep, when I was in the Rangers our motto was "We OWN the night" and they still do. BTW, I bet the IDF "Owns the Night", it goes far beyound merely having NVD's it means training and tactics designed to take every advantage of the cloak of darkness, you don't just slap on the goggles and go run around like you would at noon. Its a different mindset and operation |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet of Doom 2006-07-25 11:52 |
| #14 Given Israel's expertize with UAVs, I don't give these "guerilla bands" a high chance of sucess. At this rate the Jihadis may run out of virgins! Al |
| Posted by: Frozen Al 2006-07-25 11:35 |
| #13 Apparently one big surprise has been that Hezb'Allah has more and better night vision equipment and tactics than was anticipated. Technical advances don't remain secret for ever. Expecially when the Russians and Chinese steal them from us and sell them to the Iranians. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-07-25 11:27 |
| #12 In the US military, we own the night. Israel's capability equivalent? Are all units supplied? Are they sufficiently trained? 1. Yes, their night vision is as good as the US. 2. Not all of their units are as fully equiped as the US, but more than enough to get the job done. 3. Yes and no. Tank training has slacked but MOUT training increased with infantry since they have dealt with irregular infantry for years. The average Israeli is still more than a match for Hezspurta. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2006-07-25 11:23 |
| #11 Israel still needs effective counter-battery with turn around measured in seconds. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2006-07-25 11:22 |
| #10 In the US military, we own the night. Israel's capability equivalent? Are all units supplied? Are they sufficiently trained? This seals Hezb's resupply fate if they are up to snuff - but I don't know the answers. |
| Posted by: cruiser 2006-07-25 11:06 |
| #9 Get Iran. Kill the head and the body will die. |
| Posted by: Master of Obvious 2006-07-25 11:05 |
| #8 Abandoning the villages for the countryside is pure suicide since Israel has UAVs. Hezbollah can be tracked and hit with artillery, airpower and Apachies. If you want to inflict pain, they should hide in well camoed bunkers for a few days then come out and wreck havoc with the Israeli supply lines. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2006-07-25 10:43 |
| #7 The Hezbals understand the eighth century lifestyle, I'm sure moving on foot will be fine. I love the attrician rate; 2 to 120. These are great days, my buds, great days. |
| Posted by: wxjames 2006-07-25 10:32 |
| #6 Israel should have more time to defeat Hizbollah, before coming under pressure, than is assumed (in order of importance): 1. Russia is no longer a super-power with Arab client states under its nuclear umbrella; 2. The current US administration is the first to realize that messianic Moslems and Arabs have the US as target number one and that sacrificing Israel wouldn't remove all their crazy grievances; 3. Even Europeans aren't as passionately anti-Israeli as before and are nervous about Iran; 4. Sunni Arabs wouldn't mind seeing non-Arab, Shiite Iran's Shiite clients be diminished and want to avoid Iraq-style chaos spreading through the region; 5. While most nations want a multi-national peacekeeping force in Lebanon, everybody wants someone else to volunteer (shows their hypocrisy -- they know that amoral Hizbollah loves killing peacekeepers, yet they won't condemn Hizbollah or recognize their threat). The least stable of these factors is 3 and so astute Europeans should make their voices heard now in their media and with their governments to try to counteract the usual European appeasement instincts. |
| Posted by: Odysseus 2006-07-25 10:26 |
| #5 Getting the rockets below 50 per day will be good enough in the short run. As Nimble said, zero attacks will increase the pressure for a ceasefire. As far the Hezzies getting resupplied is concerned, not only have the Israelis taken down the bridges, they are also bombing all the trucks they spot. Even suspicious cars are not safe. Will the Hezzies be able to resist effectively if they can only move around is on foot? |
| Posted by: Apostate 2006-07-25 10:15 |
| #4 So that whole Iwo Jima thing is abandoned already? |
| Posted by: Oldcat 2006-07-25 10:00 |
| #3 There is no upside to stopping th rocket attacks on Northern Israel. They aren't doing that much damage. They keep Israeli morale focused on stopping Hezb'Allah. As soon as they stop, the pressure for a cease fire from the EU will become even greater. Whatever Israel does should be aimed at Syria as well as Hezb'Allah. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-07-25 09:56 |
| #2 I presume they haven't burned through the 11,000+ they started with, yet. |
| Posted by: cruiser 2006-07-25 09:37 |
| #1 The snailÂ’s pace of the IDFÂ’s advance means that HizballahÂ’s rocket offensive against northern Israel cannot be completely disabled in the near term, and that Hassan Nasrallah and his overlords in Tehran and Syria have enough time to come up with fresh initiatives while topping up HizballahÂ’s resources as they are depleted. Thought the IDF had the Hez-B resupply routes well controlled. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2006-07-25 09:27 |