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| U.S. doubts Israeli figures about damage of air war |
| 2006-07-22 |
| Israel is overstating the damage its air war has inflicted on the Hezbollah militia, which hides its weapons in tunnels and civilian neighborhoods throughout Lebanon, Bush administration and intelligence officials said yesterday. Israeli assessments are "too large," said one U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. But he added, "We are not getting into numbers." Jerusalem military leaders have put out numbers such as "50 percent" and "one-third" to assess the damage its combat jets have done to Hezbollah's arsenal of 13,000 rockets, and its mortars, launchers, vehicles and other military equipment. Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Daniel Ayalon, told the Associated Press yesterday that bombing has destroyed more than 40 percent of Hezbollah's arms. A second government source said the amount destroyed is less than one-third. Officials also said an air attack on Hezbollah's headquarters bunker in south Beirut failed to kill any senior militia members, including leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah. The assumption is that no senior Hezbollah members were home when Israeli planes dropped 23 tons of munitions, including concrete-penetrating "bunker buster" bombs. Since July 12, Israel has struck up to 100 targets a day in an air war that has been years in the planning as it watched Hezbollah, its sworn enemy, build up its rocket force, bunkers and membership numbers in southern Lebanon. War planners are finding that much of Hezbollah's firepower is hidden in hard-to-hit bunkers, tunnels or civilian neighborhoods, or is being spirited away in trucks after rockets are launched. Hezbollah, which touched off the current violence by invading Israel and kidnapping two soldiers, has fired as many as 1,000 short-range missiles at Israeli cities. Still, Israel, using satellite imagery and human spies, had complied a long list of Hezbollah targets and has been able to destroy a significant number of Hezbollah assets using precision-guided bombs, a defense source said yesterday. Israeli chief of staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz said yesterday the offensive has killed 100 Hezbollah guerrillas. A U.S.-designated terror group, Hezbollah has about 1,000 or fewer combatants, and several thousand active supporters or members. The problem for Israel is, there are limits to air wars and there are missions that only ground troops can carry out. Aerial bombardment cannot get at all targets, or verify damage. That is one reason Israel is contemplating a limited invasion to clear out bunkers and create a buffer zone free of Hezbollah rockets. "Clearly [Israeli attacks have] had a very significant impact on their military capability," said a U.S. counterterrorism official. "But Hezbollah still has a significant stockpile of rockets." Created with Iranian money and training in 1982, Hezbollah receives most of its rockets, the mainstay of its arsenal from Tehran, which ships them via highway routes through Syria to southern Lebanon. Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the enforcers of Iran's Islamic revolution and rigid theocracy, has sent advisers to Lebanon to train Hezbollah in how to operate new models of Katyusha, Fajr and Zelzal rockets that have hit Israel cities. |
| Posted by:Nimble Spemble |
| #13 c: Okaaaaay... I wonder, are you talking to me? Oh well. There's no actual end possible (re: Syria and Leb) as long as Iran is a primary funding source. And then there's the other primary funding source... Only the first part. My point is that the Pallies are equally well-funded by the entire Muslim world, which happens to include the oil-rich Gulf states. The Israelis have them in a headlock because of their intrusive security presence and because the well-established ROE in the occupied territories involves bombing anyone who gets in their way. This really hasn't been applied to Hezbollah, on account of Lebanon being a sovereign country and all. The Israeli airstrikes of this campaign are establishing a precedent for future air attacks in Lebanon. My other comments were in relation to what Israel hopes to achieve. I think Israel's goals may be more limited than it is letting on. I think also that some of the shibboleths about how bombings won't have any impact on enemy morale are wrong - the morale of Hezbollah and and its supporters in Lebanon will be negatively impacted by the Israeli air strikes to the extent that it directly impacts them. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2006-07-22 23:28 |
| #12 Okaaaaay... I wonder, are you talking to me? Oh well. There's no actual end possible (re: Syria and Leb) as long as Iran is a primary funding source. And then there's the other primary funding source... |
| Posted by: cruiser 2006-07-22 23:07 |
| #11 cruiser: And all because no one has yet decided to stop the sources, Iran and Syria, and end the funding, arming, and military staging and training bases, and support of a state with an arms industry. The Gulf Arabs are handing the Pallies a lot of cash - it's just that this cash alone is enough to support a guerrilla movement but isn't enough to prop up an entire government that provides essential services. I think the thing that differentiates Hezbollah from the PA is that Lebanon does have a somewhat functioning economy, which is why the Iranian and Syrian help is being spent on weaponry instead of being diverted to welfare payments, via the corrupt but time-honored Middle-Eastern tradition of money flows slowing to a trickle as they move towards their final destinations. There's another angle I hadn't thought of earlier. The Israeli attacks may not kill off Hezbollah, but they will inflict significant damage on Lebanon's ability to finance Hezbollah's war - the damaged infrastructure will be severely recessionary for the Lebanese economy. The Israeli attacks will discourage future investment in Lebanon because the damage from airstrikes is probably uninsurable. It may well be that whatever casualties incurred by Hezbollah are just a sideshow - the real Israeli goal is to divert Hezbollah's terror financing towards repairing the damage. If the Israelis can inflict a few billion dollars worth of damage, Hezbollah might run out of cash. It is possible that the Israelis seek neither to destroy Hezbollah nor to deter it, but to simply slow it down, and to establish a precedent for future bombing runs against Lebanese infrastructure if Hezbollah starts acting up again. A final note on whether bombing does hurt enemy morale. It is human nature to scream defiance against the guys who are bombing you, but the reality is that getting bombed is really, really bad for your morale. This is why Hitler spent huge amounts of money putting up major anti-aircraft installations to shoot down Allied bombers. If getting bombed were such a morale booster, he would have left German skies open to Allied bombings. Note that atomic bombs ended the war with Japan. It is clear that whatever they did to boost Japanese morale, the effect wasn't enough to prevent a Japanese surrender. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2006-07-22 22:56 |
| #10 ZF - I echo much of that. I have a substitute last sentence... And all because no one has yet decided to stop the sources, Iran and Syria, and end the funding, arming, and military staging and training bases, and support of a state with an arms industry. My view is pretty simple: It's all about Iran. Everyone else is a bit player. The money drives the whole structure, all of the action. No arms, no payrolls, no bases = brand-new equation with Shia terrorists completely marginalized. When Iran is knocked out, Mullahs deposed, then: 1) Syria will either collapse or sue for a way out, perhaps Libya-style. 2) Lebanon will finally have a chance to hold elections as something other than a Syrian puppet - the real Cedar Revolution. 3) Hezb will disintegrate into nothing more virulent than one of the Paleo factions - which even the Lebs can handle. 4) Iraq, like Leb, will finally have a chance - the strings cut - the Shia block will have to decide for themselves, for a change, just what they want to make of their golden opportunity. |
| Posted by: cruiser 2006-07-22 22:25 |
| #9 The Israelis are trying to do an Iraq without the occupation. The problem is that it isn't possible to eradicate Hezbollah without an occupation. It is obvious, in light of the continued Baath attacks in Iraq, that the removal of Saddam did not kill the party off. Even if the Israelis kill Nasrallah, my feeling is that Hezbollah will live on - it is too organized a force to dissolve with a decapitation strike. My feeling is that Israel is in a no-win situation. It doesn't want to take the casualties it will take to prevail - a dozen a year in Lebanon were too high, so it withdrew during Barak administration - and the enemy is undeterrable using the means that Israel has deployed so far. The Palestinian Authority can be countered because Israel has an intrusive security presence in-country (West Bank and Gaza). Without something similar in South Lebanon, Israel will continue to be attacked over and over again by Hezbollah. And all because Barak sacrificed Israel's strategic position in South Lebanon for some short-term electoral gains. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2006-07-22 22:06 |
| #8 You've got it, Geoffro. Now that such an opportunity has presented itself, Israel should not hold back in any way. Doing so guarantees a return engagement just as you described. As I said elsewhere, I hope Syria and Iran decide to openly engage - they must be taken down now, too, to prevent that eventuality. Otherwise, we're merely treating the symptom, not the disease. |
| Posted by: cruiser 2006-07-22 18:55 |
| #7 Assuming Israel goes through with clearing out a 'buffer area' in the south and bows to international pressure to call off the dogs, isn't it just a matter of time before Syria and Iran supply Hezb'allah with rockets that overcome the buffer with greater range? Unless Israel - or the UN - gets Hizballah out of Lebanon, they'll end up fighting the same fight X years from now. |
| Posted by: Geoffro 2006-07-22 18:32 |
| #6 "I see this as US putting some muscle behind the argument that the Israelis MUST go in on the ground." You beat me to it Rex. Israel was trying to go for the "Wham Bam" without the dinner and a movie. In other words, Olmert got caught fudging the numbers to get out of this war before the job is finished. The good news is that, not only has U.S. given the green light, the U.S. will make sure the job is finished completely. Olmert is not going to squirm his way out this one. Now, it makes me wonder. Did Israel request the bunker busters or did Bush say, you WILL take these bombs we are giving you and you WILL use them? |
| Posted by: Poison Reverse 2006-07-22 14:51 |
| #5 I'm with Old Cat, Metrics for destruction could very well be based on ability to launch as opposed to hom many arrows still in the quiver. |
| Posted by: Capsu 78 2006-07-22 14:16 |
| #4 Hiz-b could be resupplied very quickly depending on the the situ on ground following this action. I see this as US putting some muscle behind the argument that the Israelis MUST go in on the ground. |
| Posted by: Rex Mundi 2006-07-22 13:15 |
| #3 I thought the percentage numbers were describing the launchers, not the stockpiles. Doesn't matter how many missles you got if you cant launch them. |
| Posted by: Oldcat 2006-07-22 12:56 |
| #2 The Hizbees will be spending the next 10 years rebuilding what the Israelis knocked down in 10 days. That's a good return oninvestment. If one wants to get at the last bits, one needs to scrape the ground clean with D9s. |
| Posted by: ed 2006-07-22 12:49 |
| #1 one U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity why read any further? |
| Posted by: Ulirt Gleatch4358 2006-07-22 12:41 |