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| Iraq |
| Turks going into Iraq after all? |
| 2006-07-21 |
| by Jim Geraghty, National Review's man in Turkey After feeling fairly confident that Turkish rhetoric about sending its military into Iraq to deal with PKK terrorists was just that — rhetoric — I've been hearing a different tune in the last 48 hours. Turkey might just do it. I suspect the Turkish government is starting to paint itself into a corner. Since the deaths of several Turkish soldiers in PKK attacks last weekend, the debate has gone something like this: Turkish Political Leaders: If Iraq's Kurds won't deal with the PKK terrorists in their midst, we may go over there and do it for them! So now the Turkish government is reaching a point where they have two bad options: 1) Send troops into Iraq to hunt down the PKK, and accept the military and diplomatic consequences; hope that the fog of war doesn't cause some sort of incident between Turkish forces and coalition troops, and hope that the Kurds/Iraqis don't see the incident as an invasion of their country; or, 2) don't send troops over the border after talking about it for a week, and risk getting ripped in their own press for backing down and looking like they took orders from the Americans. The situation in Israel appears to be a convenient comparison for the Turks. If Israel can cross a national border to deal with terrorists, why can't Turkey? (Well, there aren't a bunch of coalition troops over the border in Lebanon, for starters...) If nothing else, Turkish forces entering Northern Iraq would provide us with some bitter humor. "Oh, sure, NOW you guys want to invade. Where was this "can-do" spirit back in 2003?" By the way, if you want a really bad scenario, imagine if the Turkish forces cross over; the Iraqi Kurds see this as an invasion and call on Iraq's military/militias/Shia and Sunni to help them defend their territory; the answer from non-Kurdish Iraqis is "no, this is your problem;" and then the Kurds respond by saying, "To hell with this, we're declaring independence." Kurdish independence is the Turkish nightmare scenario; they see it as their Fort Sumter, as they fear an independent Kurdish nation on their border would inspire their own Kurdish populations to aim for independence. So - maybe all of this is still rhetoric. But maybe I'm mistaking what I hope happens with what is likely to happen... |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #5 Smell some bad juju if that happens 3dc. NATO will not sit it out if NATO Turks should happen to team up with Iran. Greece would get very nervous and Turkey could catch a cold. |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet of Doom 2006-07-21 23:07 |
| #4 Yes but the tie in with Iran really bothers me. I think the US needs to make sure our bases in Turkey are safe. I smell Turkey and Iran ganging up on the US! |
| Posted by: 3dc 2006-07-21 22:25 |
| #3 So basically the political party nominally in charge in Turkey thinks military action in Iraq would be a winner because they could keep the anti-Kurdish military and the religious party "base" at least singing from the same songbook? |
| Posted by: Phil 2006-07-21 22:17 |
| #2 3dc, who do you think is the Secretary General of the OIC? Ekmeleddin Ihsanoğlu. A Turk. An AKP Turk, part of the Gülen Gang--Fethullah Gülen, that is. Old Fethullah got himself in a pickle with the pashas, so he's in self-imposed exile in the US for the time being. It seems that the Gülen Gang (AKP) thought it could take over the system in Turkey but recently it's been a bit of a battle. So, it's not only EU accession pressure, Kurds, the US regional presence and Iran's lust for nuclear weapons that's the problem for Turkey. The real problem is the internal power struggle from AKP's attempts to take over the system. I think AKP is trying to create a military situation to cater to the pashas, while at the same time catering to the Islamist crowd in order to give it more prestige with the pashas, and therefore more leverage in their attempt to take over the system. After reading the most recent interview with Murat Karayılan (leader of Koma Komalên Kurdistan and one of the HPG's senior commanders--also an original founding member of PKK), it seems that he suspects the same thing. The HPG Headquarters commander has issued a statement this week, saying that if Turkey persists in it's violence (meaning, invasion of South Kurdistan), the gerîla war will extend to the Mediterranean and the Aegean areas. So far, only TAK has targeted the Mediterranean and Aegean areas. |
| Posted by: Azad 2006-07-21 21:41 |
| #1 With the OIC meeting and TURKEY/IRAN saying stupid things.. Would Turkey be ready to attack the US in Iraq while Iran attempts nukes? |
| Posted by: 3dc 2006-07-21 19:14 |