Democrats are in trouble in Michigan where the re-election chances of Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Sen. Debbie Stabenow are slipping in one of the weakest state economies in the nation. Mrs. Granholm is in worse shape than Mrs. Stabenow, but both have fallen below 50 percent in the latest polls in a political environment turned sour for their party, especially among Democratic blue-collar voters who have suffered the most from massive auto industry layoffs and an unemployment rate that has hit 7 percent. Late last month a Michigan EPIC/MRA poll of likely voters showed Republican gubernatorial challenger Dick DeVos was leading Mrs. Granholm by 48 percent to 40 percent. That not only foreshadows a likely comeback for the GOP in the Statehouse but has raised fears among the Stabenow campaign's high command that she could be caught in the undertow of an anti-incumbent tide in the state.
Mrs. Granholm's deepening economic troubles are bad enough, signaling the GOP may well pick up several Democratic governorships to offset expected losses in New York and elsewhere. But Mrs. Stabenow's race, which has been overlooked by the pundits, could well be the sleeper of the 2006 midterm elections. She won in a squeaker in 2000 but has since been one of the least effective senators in Washington, passing no major legislation of her own and taking no proactive leadership role in behalf of Michigan's failing economy. Mrs. Stabenow has been one of the most invisible Democrats in the Senate. Knowlegis, a government management group that ranks lawmakers' legislative effectiveness, places the senator near the bottom of their Senate list at No. 95. But heading into this year, Republicans seemed unable to find a strong candidate to challenge Mrs. Stabenow. Their hopes seemed centered on the Rev. Keith Butler, a former Detroit city councilman who does not have the political heft needed to finance and run a competitive campaign.