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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Israel Sets Conditions for Cease-Fire
2006-07-17
Israel would agree to a cease-fire in its six-day-old offensive against Hezbollah if the Lebanese guerrillas withdraw from the border area with Israel and release two captured Israeli soldiers, a senior official said Monday. The official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the diplomacy, said Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had conveyed Israel's position to Italy's prime minister, who is trying to broker a cease-fire deal.

Israel had previously demanded the full dismantling of Hezbollah as a condition for ending hostilities. However, the senior official said Israel would agree to Hezbollah merely leaving the border area _ with the Lebanese army taking its place.
Big. Mistake.
Not to worry: this is like GWB demanding that the Taliban hand over OBL. Wasn't gonna happen, and Dubya knew it in advance. That freed his hands to do what needed to be done.

The Israelis know that Hezbollah can't pull back from the border. The whole point of Hezbollah's existence is that they're one of the only terrorist resistance movements directly confronting the evil Jooooz. Take that away and there's no point to supporting them. They have to be on the border to have a role, so they won't pull back.

Likewise, Hezbollah isn't going to just hand back the prisoners: the point of snatching them was to barter for the release of Paleo terrorists prisoners currently held by the Israelis. A successful swap would demonstrate to all the Paleos and other Arabs in the region that Hezbollah is big-heat. Likewise, handing the prisoners back meekly while being pounded would demonstrate that Hezbollah is a bunch of pansies.

The demands seem reasonable to the rest of the world, or at least reasonable enough that days will be wasted by the striped-pants crowd trying to work out an 'accomodation'. In the meantime the IAF continues to gob-smack the Hez terrs. I predict that when the point comes that the Euros try to force the Israelis to cease and desist, the Israelis will come up with another set f seemingly-reasonable demands that will prolong the process.
Posted by:Nimble Spemble

#19  Democratic Israel has the moral authority and moral restraint to do whatever the fuck it wants. Funding and training from Syria and Iran neither of which politicaly recognise Israel has to stop, until then the "middle east crisis" which has been going on since our grandparents time (100 odd years/ya arguin!) will continue.
Posted by: pihkalbadger   2006-07-17 20:16  

#18  Based on the fact that the G8, UN, cannot agree to condemn Israel, and that the US, Canada, Australia, even Saudi Arabia have condemmed Hebollah, I think the Israelis can do whatever they wish. I suspect everyone is really watching Damascus and Tehran for a reaction, see how far the IDF can push.

Waiting for the Mullahs.
Posted by: john   2006-07-17 17:48  

#17  The Paleos are people, too! We must ignore the obvious failures of diplomacy - we just didn't apply enough nuance or give enough aid. Violence is never the answer! Our focus must be to nurture and preserve that most precious Tranzi illusion commodity: stability.

/Tranzi


There can be only one... survivor.
Posted by: flyover   2006-07-17 16:52  

#16  You want me to care about what French say?

Do you work for the MSM?
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-07-17 16:07  

#15  With Olmert backing down on the demand that Hezbollah disarm, he is providing the means for Hezbollah to kill his countrymen in perpetuity. The ol' "give it another try-what can we lose" approach is misguided and suicidal. He obviously took someone's advice-did WE pressure him to back down on the demand that Hezbollah be disarmed in order to try to bring Chirac into this convoluted single-message from the West?

When is the world going to learn-by catering to nations that are led by parties with both militant and political wings, we are ensuring our own defeat and the loss of many innocents' lives? Under this failed worldview-the one our allies have yielded to and want us to go along with, too-sovereign governments under Hamas and Hezbollah are effectively sheltered from responsbility for their murderous actions and the conflict over Israel continues endlessly.
Posted by: Flereque Sluth1093   2006-07-17 16:06  

#14  lotp, While I agree with you most of the time, I do not here.
#1) No. It is not worth noting that they have destroyed tunnels. These tunnels are almost worthless, certainly not essential.
#2)As for thier governing infrastructure, there wasn't any. They did no governing. They did the same thing as the PA before them, milked international aid. The only way to hurt that is to break up the U.N. and get rid of the Arab dictators.
Posted by: Mike N.   2006-07-17 16:04  

#13  #5 Nimble Spemble
Right. And after the shooting stops, everybody will go back to how evil the Zionists were for destroying their country. And the French will say, yes, yes, shitty little country. And the Lebanese will be rewarded by having the UN rebuild their country with the US and Japan paying ahlf. And then they'll forget and HezbAllan will be back in business.

NS, you don't quite grasp how much it will cost to rebuild Lebanon.

Also, you miss a point. Next opportunity you've look up interviews with "Israeli on the street". IMO, it is not the world's pressure that drove the appeasement, it's Israelis desire for Peace that overrode facts. Now, this mass delusion is beginning to fade. As to the world pressure, I've noticed that toughther Israel behaves, the more USA support (and that the only thing that really matters) Israel gets.

p.s. You want me to care about what French say?
Posted by: gromgoru   2006-07-17 16:00  

#12  because enough Israelis accepted that the old ways are not effective.

tw,

Many in the U.S. also, realized that the old ways are not effective, that's why there is a majority GOP in Congress. Unfortunately, many GOP are now behaving like the Democrats, e.g. border, foreign port sales. KadimaGOPers will be in trouble this November. Only America first (conservative) GOPers will be elected this November. Likewise, I see Likuid coming up in the ranks. Americans will and have seen the light and I suspect the majority Israeli's will also, in the next election.

Israel will end up dying of a thousand cuts

Only if Kadima and Labor stays in power.
Posted by: Poison Reverse   2006-07-17 15:20  

#11  Ariel Sharon's new Kadimah party was elected into power despite their headliner being struck down by a major stroke because enough Israelis accepted that the old ways are not effective. Olmert has to know that if he accepts a world-imposed hudna like Israel always did in the past, not only will he lose the next election to the Greater Israel crowd, but Israel will end up dying of a thousand cuts -- as was the direction before Sharon changed the paradigm. The Palestinians had their test with Gaza and failed, as did -- sadly -- the Lebanese with their Cedar Revolution. And there is no Bill Clinton in the White House to undermine them.
Posted by: trailing wife   2006-07-17 14:57  

#10  These money quotes were from Israeli spineless bastards leaders concerning attacks from the types of rockets that are now entering Israel.

Many months ago, I have been agruing with many here at RB that the Gaza extraction was going to be a failure. For example, the tunnel that was dug to kidnap Cpl. Shilad would have been quickly identifed by the Gaza Jewish residents and notified the IDF. Also, I disagreed with Ehud Barak giving up Golan Heights.

The premise of the counter arugement was that: Give up land to the terrorists and if they misbehave, "bomb the crap out of them and pass the popcorn." I am all for destroying Hamas, Hezballah and the like, but large scale action could have avoided if land was not given up in the first place, starting with Barack. We now see what has happened.

Mike N. (below above #4) is correct. This is just a Kerry clone pretending to be tough.

These quotes start with statements the flipflopper-in-chief, Sharon. Pay attention to the timeline between the first and second quote. Anybody keeping up with Israeli politics can quickly figure out that Sharon's disengagement plan was just a political ruse to divert attention from his financial indictment problems and the criminal activites of his children. One of his son's has already been convited and sentenced to jail.

"If we cut and run, Gaza will be taken over by terror organizations ... Gaza's squares shall be transformed into launching platforms of Katyushas toward Ashkelon ... The only way to defeat terrorism is by controlling its bases."
Likud MK Ariel Sharon
Maariv, June 12, 1992


"The purpose of the Disengagement Plan is to reduce terror as much as possible, and grant Israeli citizens the maximum level of security ... These steps will increase security for the residents of Israel and relieve the pressure on the IDF and security forces in fulfilling the difficult tasks they are faced with. The Disengagement Plan is meant to grant maximum security and minimize friction between Israelis and Palestinians."
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
Herzliya Conference-December 18, 2003


"Every time there is a wave of terrorism, all sorts of 'experts' say that we should unilaterally get out of Gaza. If we do so, the Gaza Strip will become a cancerous thorn of terrorism, 1,000 times more dangerous than it is now. What will we do when katyushas are fired from Biet Yachie on Ashkelon and from Biet Hanoun on Sderot?"
Tourism Minister and Moledet Leader MK Rehavam Ze'evi
Knesset Minutes, March 1993


"We're familiar with the Likud's horror stories. They promised us Katyushas from Gaza, but Gaza has been under the primary control of the Palestinian Authority for more than a year now, and there hasn't been a single Katyusha."
Prime Minister, Labor MK Yitzchak Rabin
Jerusalem Post-June 20, 1995


"We must take into account that after withdrawal, Ashkelon, a major Israeli city, will be within the effective range of Kassam rockets. In the future, when sea and airports are built in Gaza and we will have no control, they will have Katyushas with a longer range that can also reach Kiryat Gat or southern Ashdod."
Major General (Res.) Yakov Amidror
Maariv, February 5, 2004


Now that Israel in this situation: one, Israeli citizens will never vote for Labor or Kadima again for years to come. BTW, Kadima is DEAD, they just don't know it yet. Olmert and Peres have become utter fools in Israel. Two, Israel should be left alone to destroy everything they feel necessary, to destroy. Sec. of State Rice is making a trip to Israel. I am worried that she is going there to tie Israel's hands, which would make the U.S. WoT, hypocritical.
Posted by: Poison Reverse   2006-07-17 14:57  

#9  The old "make 'em an offer they can't accept" trick.
Posted by: Mike   2006-07-17 14:43  

#8  Mike, you're absolutely right about Hamas as a terror group, although it's worth noting they've put a lot of effort into tunnels etc. that are being destroyed.

But what I had in mind was Hamas as the governing party in Gaza, including their offices, records etc. but also their public image.
Posted by: lotp   2006-07-17 14:37  

#7  Hamas is a terrorist group. By nature, the infrastructure of a terrorist group such as Hamas is not as substantial as that of a Nation. Targeting the infrastructure of any group is over-rated unless you are going to use it to your advantage. Do something with that advantage? I suspect Israel will not. Time will tell.
Posted by: Mike N.   2006-07-17 14:03  

#6  Mike, that 'half-assed Gaza thing' is still ongoing and has resulted in the dismantling of much of Hamas' infrastructure so far.
Posted by: lotp   2006-07-17 13:16  

#5  Right. And after the shooting stops, everybody will go back to how evil the Zionists were for destroying their country. And the French will say, yes, yes, shitty little country. And the Lebanese will be rewarded by having the UN rebuild their country with the US and Japan paying ahlf. And then they'll forget and HezbAllan will be back in business.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-07-17 13:06  

#4  I see nothing that leads me to believe that the Israelis are going to make this anymore meaningful than that half-assed Gaza thing. What the hell was that anyway?

I think Ohlmert is trying to fake the world into thinking he's not a puss.
Posted by: Mike N.   2006-07-17 13:05  

#3  I think if they can force the Hez out of South Lebenon, the army and people can, and might want to, take a big wet bite out of their asses. I don't know that much about Lebanese politics, just what I read on Pajamas, but the Hez don't seem to be too popular right now. They arent the only radical assholes with guns in the country either.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2006-07-17 13:02  

#2  I hope you're right this time Steve. But the way this will end is that the "international community" will force something down Israel's throat in order to stop the apocalyptic destruction that is worse that what they've said they will take. So they should be kicking butt as hard as they can and saying and leaking nothing.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-07-17 12:53  

#1  when the point comes that the Euros try to force the Israelis to cease and desist, the Israelis will come up with another set f seemingly-reasonable demands that will prolong the process.
A clever and very observant people.
Posted by: 6   2006-07-17 12:47  

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