Hezbollah and its backers, not the government, now appear in control of Lebanon's fate.
| That was the case last Tuesday, too. But on Tuesday Siniora's government didn't realize it. |
After moderating their stance in recent years, the guerrillas surged back to the war front with a surprise attack on Israel and a sophisticated arsenal, leaving Lebanon's politicians and army looking nearly powerless. The government seems paralyzed over how to deal with Hezbollah, whose Shiite Muslim fighters have had near autonomy in the south for more than a decade.
| Pretty much total autonomy, actually. That's why Leb's at war now... |
Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah acted Sunday like the man holding Lebanon's reins, though he looked tired and stressed as he vowed that his group had only begun to fight. "We are in our full strength and power," he said on the group's Al-Manar TV. "Hezbollah is not fighting a battle for Hezbollah or even for Lebanon. We are now fighting a battle for the (Islamic) nation." | You're always at full strength and power when you start a war. What counts is what condition you're in when it's over. |
Over the recent days, the Hezbollah TV station has aired a constant stream of martial music and images of guerrillas firing rockets at Israel.
| Good idea. Remind them who started the festivities. |
Even amid Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah managed to keep the station on the air — aside from a brief interruption Sunday morning — while Beirut-run utilities failed. Electricity remained knocked out across much of the city; firefighters ran out water to extinguish burning apartment buildings. The Western-backed, anti-Syrian prime minister Fouad Saniora held back tears as he vowed on Lebanese television Saturday night to curb the guerrillas, desperate to stop Israel's onslaught. But on Sunday, President Emile Lahoud — a pro-Syrian and an ally of Hezbollah — pronounced that Lebanon "will not surrender" to Israel's attempts to batter it into submission.
| Emile crawls out from under his rock. Bet they wish they'd dumped him back in March, when they had the chance. But it was Hezbollah that blocked that, too... |
Few believe Saniora could move against Hezbollah without throwing the country into further turmoil. The army he would have to send into the south has many Shiite members, who might balk at fighting their brethren in the guerrilla force. | some of them were probably complicit in the use of the coastal radars against the Iraeli warship |
The country's large Shiite population would be outraged. | and we mustn't, must't outrage Muslim sensibilities. We all know how sensitive they are and how they will be forced to torture and kill people as a result of any actions on our part. Like breathing. |
| They're not outraged at having their homes and businesses blown apart? |
The Hezbollah surge into action was a shock, because its fighters had been relatively quiet since Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000. There have been occasional exchanges with Israeli forces since, but the once-hot Israeli-Lebanese border was seen by many as successfully quieted.
| They've blown off rockets every time there's been a crisis in Israel... |
Hezbollah's star had even appeared to be falling somewhat, with the end of its ally Syria's control of Lebanon last year. Anti-Syrian sentiment across the country ended Hezbollah's image as a nationalist anti-Israel force, while Damascus' opponents came to dominate the government. This year, Lebanon's politicians had openly discussed disarming the group, though talks on doing so dragged on without result. | Oh, they had a result - The Army of Allah invaded Israel, killed a couple soldiers and took 2 more hostage. Just top make their position in the negotiations clear .... |
Elections last year gave Hezbollah a strong parliament presence of 11 lawmakers and two seats in the Cabinet, increasing predictions among many Lebanese that the group would abandon guerrilla action and become a political party. All such speculation vanished in an instant Wednesday with Hezbollah's bold raid across the border to snatch two Israeli soldiers, sparking Israel biggest bombardment in 24 years. Hezbollah clearly made a decision in favor of fighting over a political role, and felt confident it was strong enough for the fight it knew it was starting.
| It was assert itself or have the government eventually decide to implement Resolution 1559. The pressure was mounting... |
Israel says that's because Iran has been feeding the guerrilla arsenal with beefed-up rockets, even sending 100 members of its elite Revolutionary Guards to help launch them — a claim Nasrallah denied Sunday.
| Doesn't matter if they're Iranians or Hezbies trained back in the Promised Land. The missile was certainly an Iranian Silkworm variant. |
Hezbollah, which was founded in 1982 after Iran's Revolutionary Guards were sent to Lebanon during Israel's invasion of the country, is thought to receive between $10 million and $20 million a month from Iran, and its fighters regularly go there for training. But Iranian fighters have not been seen in Lebanon in the past 15 years.
| Of course not. The Lebs go to Iran or Syria for their training. And Syria was there for the past 14 years. |
Already the new fighting has deepened divisions in Lebanon, mostly along sectarian lines. The country's 1.2 million Shiites largely support Hezbollah, while Sunnis, Christians and Druse mostly oppose it. Lebanon's army of about 70,000 soldiers far outnumbers Hezbollah's estimated 6,000 fighters, but its troops lack the guerrillas' battle experience.
| The only "battle experience" Hezbollah has is popping off rockets at northern Israel. They're still play soldiers. |
Largely manned by Shiite Muslims, the army could also break up along sectarian lines, while the guerrillas can call on thousands of supporters. And Hezbollah's religious zeal — and willingness to die in battle — also makes it a formidable foe, increasing fears that the latest conflict could tear Lebanon apart. "Hezbollah has taken the country hostage. They have destroyed people's homes and infrastructure," cried Mohammed Bazazo, 50, a merchant in the predominantly Sunni southern port city of Sidon.
| Picked right up on that, didn't you? |
Nasrallah tried to address those concerns Sunday, vowing that Hezbollah will help rebuild. "You are truly a historic people," he said, addressing Lebanon. "By your steadfastness, we will be victorious." |