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| The Tancredo Republicans |
| 2006-06-23 |
| Novel strategy: Run on their lack of accomplishment. Most Congressional majorities campaign for re-election by touting their legislative achievements. Not this year. House Republicans have decided that the key to saving their majority is not to solve the immigration problem they've spent the last year building into a "crisis." Give them credit for novelty, if not for wisdom. This is the only way to read House Speaker Denny Hastert's decision this week to delay a House-Senate conference on immigration reform, and instead to stage a summer anti-immigration road show. Republicans plan to use the events to further raise the false alarm of "amnesty," which means further attacking their own President's immigration policy. We realize this year's immigration debate long ago left the rational world and is now driven entirely by political fear. But even as political strategy, this is the equivalent of snake-handling; it will be diverting to watch, unless the snake bites back. Republicans came to this strategic epiphany after concluding that Representative Brian Bilbray won his special election victory in California this month by demagoguing immigration. But all that election really proved is that a GOP Beltway lobbyist could keep a seat in a 60% Republican district so long as he outspent an opponent who committed the final-week gaffe of encouraging immigrants to vote illegally. Replicate that trifecta around the country this November, and Republicans wouldn't need to campaign. Looking at House Republicans who are vulnerable this year, we can't find a single one who will lose because of support for President Bush's comprehensive immigration reform. That isn't Heather Wilson's problem in New Mexico; she always has a tough race and favors both border security and a guest worker program. Chris Shays also won't save his seat by rallying the bluebloods in Greenwich, Connecticut, against their Mexican maids and construction workers. On the other hand, J.D. Hayworth could lose his seat in Arizona despite taking his anti-immigration riff to any radio or TV show that will have him. What might well cost all of them their seats is the growing perception that this Congress hasn't achieved much of anything. If Republicans want a precedent, they might recall what happened to Democrats who failed to pass a crime bill in the summer of 1994. Already in trouble on taxes at the time, Democrats looked feckless on crime and health care and went down to crashing defeat. Immigration could do the same for Republicans, who have been flogging the issue for months as a grave national problem. Doing nothing about it now risks alienating even those conservatives who merely want more border police. House Republicans insist they can't vote for any bill that can be called an "amnesty" for illegals, and that that's what the Senate and Mr. Bush want. But this is a box canyon of their own making. No serious person believes that the 11 million or so illegals already in America will be deported. Nor will these illegals come out of the shadows unless there is some kind of process that allows them to become legal and keep their jobs, even if it falls short of a path to citizenship. And immigrants will keep coming illegally in search of a better life unless there is some legal way they can apply for and find work. Yet by denouncing any such compromise as "amnesty," the restrictionists have poisoned their own voters against accepting the only policy with a chance to solve the problem. When Indiana's Mike Pence, a stalwart conservative, offered a compromise that included a guest worker program, the Tancredo brigades savaged even him as endorsing "amnesty." Rather than see the Pence plan as a way out of their political mess, Mr. Hastert failed to defend him. On immigration, Mr. Tancredo is now the real speaker of the House. Even if all of this somehow works this election year, the long term damage to the GOP could be considerable. Pete Wilson demonized illegal aliens to win re-election as California Governor in 1994, but at the price of alienating Latino voters for a decade. The smarter Republicans--President Bush, Karl Rove, Senator John McCain, Colorado Governor Bill Owens and Florida Governor Jeb Bush--understand that the GOP can't sustain its majority without a larger share of the Hispanic vote. Making Mr. Tancredo the spokesman on this issue is a surefire way to make Hispanics into permanent Democrats. Every poll we've seen says that the public favors an immigration reform of the kind that President Bush does. That's because, whatever their concerns about border security, Americans are smart enough to know that immigrants will keep coming as long as they have the economic incentive to do so. They also don't want the social disruption favored by the deport-'em-all Tancredo Republicans. On policy, the country could do worse than pass nothing this year on immigration. We've muddled through for years, and at 4.6% unemployment the U.S. economy is easily absorbing the illegal workforce. But having turned the immigration issue into a rallying cry, Republicans have put themselves at political risk if they do nothing. If the GOP finds itself in the minority next year, we trust its restrictionists will stand up and take a bow. |
| Posted by:ryuge |
| #14 Damn, I really can spell, sorry for the missing letters! |
| Posted by: JustAboutEnough 2006-06-23 23:28 |
| #13 After reading one of the best rants recently on the state of the society (GS?) I hesitate to wax verbose, but this has to be said. It isn't just a commitment to real border enforcement first that is at issue, it has to be the entire issue of immigration itself. We are committing cultural suicide at a rate unparalleled in human history, except perhaps by the Romans in the later parts of the western Imperial period. Who sections of Los Angeles are only marginally American now, Glendale is overwhelming becoming Armenian, and Monterrey Park now has more Chinese lingauage signs than English by a factor of 5-1. Turn on any L.A. am radio and scan the channels. English is the minority language! The LA Unified Schoold District has over 60% dropout rate (Detriot still wins at 80% I'm told). The myth of acculturation and assimilation are debunked! These folks don't want to be American, they just want the goodies! Our country is awash in foreign-born (over 25-30% of all California residents weren't born in this country). Everywhere you look, the systems and structures of society are collapsing. Whore politicians chase the minorities and finagle gifts like in-state tuition for illegals. ... Sorry I digree too far. Close the border, enforce employer sanctions, conduct immigration sweeps, impliment a real-ID act with biometrics, deport alien prisoners immediately (over 20% of the California state prison system) and stop LEGAL immigration for at least a three year hiatus! Oh, and by the way, closer scrutiny of all Islamic applicants before even issuing a visa! Absent these kind of draconia reforms, I too suspect that what comes isn't going to be pretty or safe..... |
| Posted by: JustAboutEnough 2006-06-23 23:26 |
| #12 Amen, Old Spook. If they can get border control through, without "comprehensive" reform, incumbents might stand a chance in November. If it all falls through because reform is not "comprehensive", they're gonna have some serious splaining to do to the folks back home. |
| Posted by: Jules 2006-06-23 21:50 |
| #11 "And immigrants will keep coming illegally in search of a better life unless there is some legal way they can apply for and find work.' Not in any significant numbers if we lock down the borders, and step up internal enforcement. Thats why Enforcement has to come first. And there's the author's problem: he assumes that there will be NO enforcement like in 1986 |
| Posted by: Oldspook 2006-06-23 19:20 |
| #10 Good heavens! I'm in agreement with Mr. James. |
| Posted by: 6 2006-06-23 16:12 |
| #9 The mention at all of J.D. Hayworth made me cringe. His district is white and indian. On top of it, Phoenix has some of the most conservative republican Mexican-Americans in the country. The last two democrats to run against Hayworth were human sacrifices. Both, I think, were carpetbaggers, brought in because nobody local wanted to be thrown off a cliff. The Arizona indian tribes love J.D., not just because he is good for their business, but because they like him personally. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2006-06-23 14:15 |
| #8 "And immigrants will keep coming illegally in search of a better life unless there is some legal way they can apply for and find work.' It is a serious misreading of American voters to believe that they accept a widespread guest worker program as part of "comprehensive" immigration reform. Most aren't thinking that far ahead or thinking of how such legislation could affect their lives, but I dare the Republicans to do it. Were such a guest worker program legislated, the financial effects would turn mild-mannered Clark Kents into a pissed off, superhuman American electorate right quick. Good distinction made about letting illegals pay their penalties and stay and work legally versus granting citizenship. Sounds like a potential common middle ground between Dems and Pubs. |
| Posted by: Jules 2006-06-23 12:46 |
| #7 what a funny article. Talk about talking out of both sides of your mouth. Yada, yada. Not only was it MEGO material, but it makes no meaningful point. We don't want amnesty, we want reform. It's really that simple. |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-06-23 11:26 |
| #6 This article supposes, does it not, that we the voting base are too stupid to see these things for ourselves. |
| Posted by: bigjim-ky 2006-06-23 10:49 |
| #5 The only reason the GOP hasn't lost the moderate part of it's base is that the alternitive is soooooo much worse. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2006-06-23 09:34 |
| #4 When the press can't control the will of the people, then the politicians who would do anything to be re-elected are (fill in the negative adjectives). The press can eat a snake's ass for all I care. We've got our congressmen on the ropes, so call them or email them and make your desires known. Today, the people control the people's House more than ever before. The spending bills are being debated now, and the democrats all want to increase spending, while the republican majority will not allow it. Urge them to hold the line and not give in to the Senate on the border issue. Democracy rules. |
| Posted by: wxjames 2006-06-23 09:33 |
| #3 The smarter Republicans--President Bush, Karl Rove, Senator John McCain, Colorado Governor Bill Owens and Florida Governor Jeb Bush--understand that the GOP can't sustain its majority The day that the GOP places party majority over principles is the day they lose their base...based upon this editorial it seems that day is fast approaching |
| Posted by: mjh 2006-06-23 09:13 |
| #2 1. Enforce the border. 2. Deport those you do catch. 3. Actively pursue those who employ illegals. 4. Agressively expedite the process of admitting legal immigrants and radically improve the process of monitoring them (requires tamper-resistant documents and computerized tracking.) 5. Require proof of legal status for reciept of public services (this is the trickiest, since to be effective it would also require such proof of citizens - "Papers, please!") 6. Eliminate the 'anchor baby' citizenship status; change the law (Constitution?) such that birth citizenship only applies to babies born to mothers legally in the country. Don't worry about chasing down the millions of illegals already here; make them 'self deport' by making it easier and better to enter legally and less beneficial to stay illegally. Does this make me an evil Tancredo Republican? Demand the Tom-Tom ticket in 2008 (Coburn & Tancredo, in either order.) |
| Posted by: glenmore 2006-06-23 09:06 |
| #1 Wow. Talk about demogoguery, this unsigned, thus representing the entire DJ Opionion Journal's Editorial Staff's position, "opinion" article is a primer on the art. DJOJ just fell off the ladder. Kiss my legal American ass, chuckles. |
| Posted by: Glomogum Shogum2997 2006-06-23 08:09 |