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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Revolutionary Guards to deploy on Golan
2006-06-19
DEBKAfile: New Syria-Iranian defense treaty opens way for Iran`s Revolutionary Guards to deploy on Israel’s Golan border by summer’s end. Iranian defense minister Gen. Mustafa Najjar said: “Syria’s security is part of Iran’s security,” when he signed a new military treaty with his visiting Syrian counterpart, Gen. Hassan Turkmani (picture) in Tehran last Thursday June 15. Sunday, June 18, Israel’s parliamentary foreign affairs and defense committee inspected its northern border, along with the deputy chief of staff Moshe Kaplinsky and OC Northern command Udi Adam. Both Tehran and Damascus referred to the tour as Israel’s response to their new treaty.

DEBKAfile’s military sources add: At the signing ceremony, the Syrian official waved away reporters’ questions on whether Iran would be establishing a military base in Syria – “The language of a (foreign) military base in our country is alien to us. I want to say that it is not on the agenda.” Nonetheless, military sources note that he rejected the term “bases” - but did not rule out “foreign forces” in nSyrian bases, which Persian Gulf and Pakistani military sources are certain was agreed secretly between the two countries. They have learned that Iran has offered to deploy Revolutionary Guards on the Golan border with Israel by the end of summer, because as Najjar said at the signing: “We have a common front against Israel’s threats.”

DEBKAfileÂ’s Tehran sources disclose the Iranians seek to attain three objectives by deploying RG units to the Golan heights:

1. Another direct front line against Israel.

2. A forward position for an Iranian electronic warning station to sound a timely alarm of the takeoff of American warplanes or missiles from the eastern Mediterranean basin on their way to attack.

3. The station can also keep electronic track of movements on Israeli air and missile bases, covering also Arrow anti-missile missile systems.

The Syrian military delegation, which spent five days in Tehran, brought a year of secret negotiations to their conclusion. The breadth of Syrian-Iranian military relations can be measured by the military treatyÂ’s financial scope of $800 m and the size of the delegation Damascus sent to Tehran - 60 officers representing every branch of the Syrian armed forces, including intelligence and munitions industries. For years, both countries have supported the Lebanese Hezbollah militia and anti-Israeli Palestinian factions including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which maintain headquarters in Damascus
Posted by:Steve

#14  RWV, civil planes airlift, or shipping the RG troops through Suez... perhaps both, troops by air and gear through shipping.
Posted by: zazz   2006-06-19 22:58  

#13  I'm a little puzzled. There is no way for Iranian troops to get to Syria by land without passing through Iraq or Turkey, unlikely to happen. Iraq doesn't have the airlift to move a significant number of troops and again, a look at the map says they couldn't do that without Jordan and Saudi permission. The only other approach is sealift through the Suez canal. I think this is more of the Arab / Persian propensity for grandiloquent prose than a real threat.
Posted by: RWV   2006-06-19 16:09  

#12  I tend to agree with LH though I suppose that Iran may simply be trying to increase the potential cost of a move against Hezbollah by Israel that might come in conjunction with any move against the nuke sites.

Still, this sounds like typical dramatic spin by Debka on something that's been happening for a while. I saw an interesting post about a month ago by Michael Totten but cannot find th link. It showed observation towers built by Hezbollah on the border and included interviews with Israeli soldiers describing their uses. It's clear Iran already has an electronic presence near Israel for monitoring purposes.
Posted by: JAB   2006-06-19 15:02  

#11  in the years before the 6 day war, Israel considered the deployment of Iraqi or KSA forces to Jordan a potential threat and casus belli, but that was with a very insecure border. I doubt very much that division of RG troops would threaten todays much stronger Israeli position on the Golan, enought to provoke a preemptive war.

IF its true that RG are going to Syria, its MUCH more likely that the purpose is to intervene in internal Syrian affairs, to provide the regime with a loyal body guard at a time when loyalties are in flux.
Posted by: liberalhawk   2006-06-19 14:50  

#10  The proverbial Â’Kick MeÂ’ sticker on SyriaÂ’s back.
Posted by: Throlump Thromoth7510   2006-06-19 12:20  

#9  Israel could force the issue by threatening to invade Syria

When Turkey threated to invade Syria, Assad backed down real fast, closing down the training camps.
Posted by: john   2006-06-19 12:03  

#8  The fourth Syrian neighbor, Lebanon, shouldn't be discounted. They could do two things to put Syria in a hole, particularly if done in concert with Israel (informally, of course): 1) crack down on the Paleos and 2) 'allow' their air space to be used by Israel.

Michael Totten has written a fair bit on how the Lebanese don't see Israel as an enemy, and in fact would like nothing better than good relations with Israel and the Syrians out of their country. This is true not only for the Maronites but also for the Druze and even a lot of the Shi'a. Seems that close contact with the Syrians has led to a fair bit of contempt. It's the famous Assad charm, methinks.

Israel moving north and northeast, Lebanon quietly cooperating, Jordan sitting on its hands, Turkey providing quiet help from its border, and US troops doing 'hot pursuit' from Iraq -- all spells the end for Doc Assa.
Posted by: Steve White   2006-06-19 11:32  

#7  Or Israel could force the issue by threatening to invade Syria. The US could conclude that this is a potential disaster for perceptions of the US in the muslim world, so the US would invade Syria just to remove the threat of an Israeli invasion. Nasty situation for the US, victory for the Iranians by tying down more US forces that could be invading Iran. Of course it doesn't do the Syrians much good, but I get the feeling baby Assad isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer.
Posted by: Jonathan   2006-06-19 11:19  

#6  A wild guess on my part but it sounds so much like the Cuban Missile Crisis I wouldn't be suprised if Syria gets some Iranian Nukes out of the deal.
Posted by: 3dc   2006-06-19 11:03  

#5  An interesting chessmatch being played out.

Iran knows that US patience is wearing thin with both the EU/UNSC effort and the limited timeline before Iran goes nuclear.

They also know that the US has mid-term elections and, given the situation in Iraq, the American voters aren't eager for another confrontation right now.

Meantime, what better way to inflame Muslims and align the Muslim dominated countries (i.e., Saudi oil) to its side than to taunt Israel into a confrontation. For instance, which side does Jordan take?

Posted by: Captain America   2006-06-19 10:27  

#4  Israel has a history of pre-emptive attack when enemies are massing against them. Traditionally they wouldn't wait to be attacked. I would be very,VERY, carefull If I were Iran and Syria. They may lose even more territory if they don't watch themselves.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2006-06-19 10:12  

#3  The only thing elite about the RG is the fact they are loyal to the mullahs. Israel will make very short work of those wannabes.
Posted by: DarthVader   2006-06-19 09:43  

#2  Syria is placing itself in great peril.
It has three neighbors that don't like the regime, won't tolerate Iranian RG troops near their borders and who each have the military forces to crush the Syrian army - Isral, Turkey and the US (Iraqi bases).

Posted by: john   2006-06-19 09:40  

#1  Cuban Missile Crisis, the sequel. Watch, see how long before Iranian missiles are based with the troops. Israel won't tolerate this
Posted by: Frank G   2006-06-19 08:56  

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