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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| The Varyag Mystery Deepens |
| 2006-05-30 |
| May 30, 2006: The mystery, of what China is doing with the former Russian aircraft carrier Varyag, continues. The Chinese appear to be doing some kind of work on the Varyag, one of two Kuznetsov class that Russia began building in the 1980s. The Varyag has been tied up in a Chinese shipyard at Dailan since 2002. While the ship is under guard, it can be seen from a nearby highway. From that vantage point, local military and naval buffs have noted that some kind of work is being done on the ship. The only visible signs of this work are a new paint job (in the gray shade used by the Chinese navy) and ongoing work on the superstructure (particularly the tall "island" on the flight deck.) Many workers can be seen on the ship, and material is seen going into (new stuff) and out of (old stuff) the ship. Originally the Kuznetsovs were conceived of as 90,000 ton, nuclear powered ships, similar to American carriers (complete with steam catapults). Instead, because of the cost, and the complexity of modern (American style) carriers, the Russians were forced to scale back their goals, and ended up with the 65,000 ton (full load ) ships that lacked steam catapults, and used a ski jump type flight deck instead. Nuclear power was dropped, but the Kuznetsov class was still a formidable design. The thousand foot long carrier normally carries a dozen navalized Su-27s (called Su-33s), 14 Ka-27PL anti-submarine helicopters, two electronic warfare helicopters and two search and rescue helicopters. But the ship can carry up to 36 Su-33s and sixteen helicopters. The ship carries 2,500 tons of aviation fuel, allowing it to generate 500-1,000 aircraft and helicopter sorties. Crew size is 2,500 (or 3,000 with a full aircraft load.) Only two ships of this class exist; the original Kuznetsov, which is in Russian service, and the varyag. Because of the expense, and risk of accidents with an inexperienced crew, the Kuznetsov doesn't get to sea much. But the Russians have had enough experience with Kuznetsov to encourage them to get develop plans for two more, larger, carriers. These new ships, which are not expected until the next decade, if ever, may look like current carriers, but will probably be quite different inside. For one thing, the Russians would probably arm any future class of carriers with more missiles and robotic aircraft (combat UAVs.) Even the Kuznetsov had twelve aircraft size P-500 Shipwreck anti-ship missiles. These were launched from tubes mounted beneath the flight deck. The Kuznetsovs also had 24 anti-aircraft missile launchers, as well as 30mm close-in guns, anti-torpedo decoy rockers and lots of radars and electronics. Thus the Chinese have much to learn from how the Varyag, and it's 3,800 compartments, and 16 kilometers of internal passageways. The Kuznetsov was designed based on decades of Russian experience building, and operating smaller carriers. The Russians had also obtained much technical data on the most modern U.S. carriers. Thus the Varyag is a huge depository of useful information on how to build an aircraft carrier. And that's apparently how the Chinese are using it. At the same time, the Chinese are spending a lot of time, and money, installing new equipment on the Varyag (which arrived in China without engines.) So far, China has been silent on their plans for the Varyag, but judging from what has been going on with the ship in the Dalian harbor, something substantial is happening. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #26 Against the USN's NIMITZ-class and escorts the PLAN realistically has no chance, against the Royal Navy CV's the PLAN has a very slight chance of victory but I believe will lose in the end. We all know about France and PROP-GATE - the French normally have very good systems but they have to get there first. Taken collectively, the VARYAQ [MELBOURNE???]is at best a "show-the-flag" training ship for follow-on PLAN designs, at worst an expendable vessel or one that will likely be sunk in the openning/first round of a US-China regional war - it will take lots of time and espec $$$ for the Chicoms to dev an indigens CV + escorts even remotely capable of challenging a US-NATO carrier battle group. Both RUSSIA + CHINA > stated that WAR Against America, AND ONLY AGAINST AMERICA, circa Year(s) 2015-2018 is not only possible or realistic but desired - its 2006-1/2 already, and Year 2015 is 7-1/2 years away. Iff CHINA still wants to wage its war starting circa 2015, at its current rate of military modernization it will have to do it wid Airborne forces, Commandos-Fifth Columnists/PYWAR, and "boomer" Subs, i.e. regional "take-and-hold" subject to IMMEDIATE REGIONAL-GLOBAL NUCLEAR ESCALATION against US = US-Allied milfors and CONUS itself. China's Central Military Commission and PLA General Staffs will likely be willing to accept prohibitive losses amongst pan-PLA attacking units, espec iff tradeoffs have occurred vv modern tech transfers vs primitivity. *IFF THE RUSSIANS BUILD IT, CHINA WILL BUY OR RE-ENGINEER IT". On a separate note, its is my belief that, vv China's recent purchase of Russian BE fast jet-propelled seaplanes, that China will convert these into multipurpose littoral crafts, wid some versions potens equipped wid LR MISSLE TUBES for surface attack, anti-air, BMD andor possible strategic attack capability. Worse coming to worse, China = IRAN = North Korea, etc > biggest, ultimate ace are ANTI-AMERICAN AMERICANS PC working within the Amer NPE against their own country and people. Both Russia-China adhere to the "WAR/BATTLE/LOCAL ZONE" anti-US strategy which emphasizes or prioritizes POLITICAL-DIPLOMATIC VICTORY OVER MILITARY [MSM, PYWAR/Fifth Column, PC=PDeniability, Perceptions-Info Management-Warfare, etal.]. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2006-05-30 23:49 |
| #25 hope they use their best and brightest to test it out :-) |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-05-30 22:23 |
| #24 Try, just try to land on a carrier with a conventional aircraft (Hint: Even if it had an arrestor hook the cell will not take the severe stresses of a carrier landing). Likely they'll use a carrier-capable airframe. The tactics supposedly are not to have an embarked air-wing on the carrier. Acting as a "lily pad' is probably the best description. And just try to land on a carrier without a loooong and painful training. The Chinese have had an airfield configured like a carrier's deck for quite some time, even before the Varyag showed up. I suspect they may also take (or are taking) advantage of Russian facilities as well. You have no idea how small a carrioer can look when you have to lmand on it. Even in fair weather. Um, yeah, I do... :) |
| Posted by: Pappy 2006-05-30 21:18 |
| #23 My analysis: It's a bluff, "Hey look over here!" Like it's french cousin (they collaberated on it) this Russian junk can't even defend itsself except against the most weakest of enemies. One day it will stay into Korean waters, the ROKs will capture or sink it, and then the Norks/Chicoms will attack the south. |
| Posted by: Cyber Sarge 2006-05-30 18:01 |
| #22 I've done one carrier trap in my life, as cargo, on a Greyhound. And one is enough. I got to look out the front when they pointed out the carrier and said thats where we were landing. My thoughts, which escaped as words (and made the crew laugh) "You gotta be shittin me!" (Got the usual Navy comeback: "We wouldn't shit you spooky, you're our favorite turd", to which I said "Just give me a chute and I'll jump."). Carrier traps are nothing if not insanely scary. No way the Chinese will be able to operate this unless they ahve a lot of sea-tiome for the crew and aircrews. |
| Posted by: Oldspook 2006-05-30 17:38 |
| #21 Let's give Japan two of our old oil-burning carriers, and a fleet of F/A-18s. Previous discussion thread here. |
| Posted by: Mike 2006-05-30 17:07 |
| #20 I *still* think they may be turning it into a lily pad type vehicle for the Spratleys. |
| Posted by: Phil 2006-05-30 16:57 |
| #19 Time to twist the Chinese boxers a bit tighter - Let's give Japan two of our old oil-burning carriers, and a fleet of F/A-18s. The Chinese screams would echo off the moon. |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2006-05-30 16:43 |
| #18 Good call Borgboy, the Japanese Yammato was turned into a space ship to save mankind from the evil Gamelon Empire. All hail Desslock. Good stuff. |
| Posted by: Rightwing 2006-05-30 15:56 |
| #17 The Chinese really haven't started working on it yet. They are waiting for the French to make the De Gaulle seaworthy first, then they'll give them the contract for the Varyag. |
| Posted by: Penguin 2006-05-30 15:36 |
| #16 Doesn't the PRC have enough trouble keeping water out of its submarines? |
| Posted by: mrp 2006-05-30 13:43 |
| #15 A carrier pilot once described an at-sea landing thusly: Float an ace of spades in the middle of your hot tub. Turn on the Jacuzzi. Step back ten feet. Throw a dime directly onto the spade in the center of the playing card. Now, imagine a nighttime landing. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-05-30 13:35 |
| #14 i>You have no idea how small a carrier can look when you have to land on it. Even in fair weather. If carriers in fair weather can look small just wait to see how much smaller they are when weather is bad |
| Posted by: JFM 2006-05-30 13:14 |
| #13 That's what all the changes are for, they are replacing the flight deck with a large pillow. |
| Posted by: wxjames 2006-05-30 13:13 |
| #12 Because of the expense, and risk of accidents with an inexperienced crew, the Kuznetsov doesn't get to sea much. But the Russians have had enough experience with Kuznetsov to encourage them to get develop plans for two more, larger, carriers. The Chinese have the same idea. This is a first step, just to get some experience in seaborne flight ops. The steps after this will be much more interesting. |
| Posted by: DoDo 2006-05-30 12:59 |
| #11 JFM's right, that big assed carrier looks small even from the helicopters I have flown. I can only imagine it from a fighter respective. Lots of popcorn. |
| Posted by: 49 Pan 2006-05-30 12:40 |
| #10 Hey a carrier in the hands of a country with no experience with carrier landings and take offs and the flight deck choreography? THATS GREAT!!! I mean, you gotta think this could deplete the stockpile of experienced ChiCom MIG pilots by at least a third AND it has the additional philup of scaring the bejabbers out of an additional third and having the rest defect to the US to flight commercial jets. I think we should GIVE the ChiComs a couple of old carriers, buy some popcorn and video tape the carnage. |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet of Doom 2006-05-30 12:06 |
| #9 One theory is that the PLAN will use their first carrier(s) as a mobile foward-airfield (land, refuel, re-arm) rather than embark aircraft. Try, just try to land on a carrier with a conventional aircraft (Hint: Even if it had an arrestor hook the cell will not take the severe stresses of a carrier landing). And just try to land on a carrier without a loooong and painful training. You have no idea how small a carrioer can look when you have to lmand on it. Even in fair weather. |
| Posted by: JFM 2006-05-30 11:57 |
| #8 Nah. The ex-Varyag instantly becomes a chewtoy for B-1's out of Guam or F-15s out of Kadena. I don't think the Chinese would use it for a Helicopter base. It would then be in range of antiship missiles from Taiwan. It would also suck in an attack against the US Navy since the SU-33s are few in number and can only take off with minimum fuel and weapons. Best use is a lab to study future aircraft carrier designs or intimidate less well armed neighbors to the south. |
| Posted by: ed 2006-05-30 11:15 |
| #7 This could tilt the balance of power when it comes to the outlieing islands that are disputed. Islands such as the Spratlys could be affected by a large warship in the area. But I cant wait to see it off the coast of Florida checing on the oil well they are putting inout there. |
| Posted by: 49 Pan 2006-05-30 10:31 |
| #6 Do not mock Starship YAMATO! Do not confuse illiterate rice-eaters with the sons of Nippon - heirs of Samurai and Bushido! |
| Posted by: borgboy 2006-05-30 10:14 |
| #5 It's being converted into a Spaceship, and will roam the Galaxy battling aliens...or something like that. I saw an anime show about it! Oh, wait. That was the Japanese, never mind. -M |
| Posted by: Manolo 2006-05-30 10:05 |
| #4 . . . the Varyag is a huge depository of useful information on how to build an aircraft carrier. And that's apparently how the Chinese are using it. Not surprised they would back-engineer it--it's quicker than desiging a ship from a cold start. How many US Admirals are there who would go beserk at the chance to be the first to sink a carrier since 1945? There hasn't been a genuine carrier-vs-carrier battle since Cape Engano in 1944, and that almost doesn't count (the Japanese fleet was a mere shadow of its former self). Nobody has any direct experience with how such a battle would shape up using modern aircraft and missiles and modern damage control--thus, the use of the hulk of America for weapons testing, and the recent US-India naval maneuvers which seem to have included a little carrier-on-carrier sparring. |
| Posted by: Mike 2006-05-30 10:04 |
| #3 One theory is that the PLAN will use their first carrier(s) as a mobile foward-airfield (land, refuel, re-arm) rather than embark aircraft. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2006-05-30 09:54 |
| #2 Sounds like a nice target. How many US Admirals are there who would go beserk at the chance to be the first to sink a carrier since 1945? They'd have to beat the sub captains to it, though. |
| Posted by: Laurence of the Rats 2006-05-30 09:32 |
| #1 Is Taiwan outside of the range of Chinese land-based air cover? Do you see where I'm going with this? |
| Posted by: Jonathan 2006-05-30 09:23 |