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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| IndiaÂ’s stake in Iran sanctions |
| 2006-05-11 |
| From East Asia Intel, subscription. It isn’t just the Russians and the Germans — Iran’s major suppliers — who would be hit hard by any success by Washington to use economic sanctions to force Teheran to end its nuclear weapons efforts. The most critical item would be Iran’s gasoline imports, running at about half its consumption. And India supplies about 15 percent of that market totaling some $4.5 billion a year and rising rapidly despite the Mullahs’ public declarations to restrain it. In fact, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad publicly announced Iran might face rationing from September after the Majlis voted only a six-month appropriation for imports. The peasants depend upon the $0.36/gallon gas to keep them happy. Start rationing it, and you get a pi$$ed-off populace, with the MMs winding up on lamp posts or in Switzerland. Although Iran is the world’s third or fourth largest crude oil exporter, years of mismanagement, the effect of the U.S.’ unilateral sanctions and a sharply rising consumption pattern have reduced its refining capacity to cope with demand. Gasoline imports now amount to 10 percent of its crude oil export revenues. Because of the low subsidized price of gasoline some estimate that 20 percent of imports are smuggled out to neighboring countries, even including war-torn Iraq. The gasoline imports are critical, not only for motorists but for the truck transport, which carries Iran’s imports inland from the Persian Gulf ports. Iran is, for example, deficit in its stable grain, rice. About a quarter of Iran’s gas imports come from other Persian Gulf producers and smaller amounts come from as far away as China and Brazil — cargo on incoming tankers loading up with crude. India has been toying with the possibility of a natural gas pipeline from Iran, which would help meet its own growing energy needs, with 70 percent of oil now being imported. Washington has publicly condemned the project with both New Delhi and Islamabad — it would have to cross India’s feuding partner, Pakistan — publicly saying they would go ahead. But even Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said publicly financing for such a huge project might not be available if it faced U.S. opposition. Meanwhile, Reliance Industries Ltd. has been pumping out product for Iran from its huge refinery near Mumbai [Bombay], one of the largest in the world. In the face of opposition from India’s monopoly state-owned oil company, the Ambani family built the $3.4 billion refinery six years ago as its cornerstone in an effort to create a privately owned Indian integrated oil company against the opposition of India’s monopolistic state-owned company. The Ambanis, among the world’s richest industrialists, carry great weight in India’s complicated political scene. It would sure benefit the whole world if the MMs were toppled from power. The middle east could really take off. Only problem is that some other nutcase would take over the helm. |
| Posted by:Alaska Paul |
| #6 The more I see the MMs making crazy through their Adminijacket mouthpiece, the more that I marvel at their vulnerability to be toppled and become lamp post festoons. If Iranian crude stops flowing through sanctions, then the price goes up and everyone adjusts for a while. Then Reliance Industries, Ltd. over in India will have to find another source of crude feedstock for their refineries to replace M2C (Mad Mullah Crude). The MMs lose their low cost gasoline "soma" that keeps the masses at bay and they go apesh*t. The Iranian Mullocracy is a deck of cards waiting to come down. But it will require our will to make it happen. John---I agree with your assessment of a Pak pipeline from Iran to India. It will be nothing but a big baksheeh hole. Hell, it probably will be 1000 psi or so at the beginning, and by the time it gets to India, it will be 100 psi swamp gas. Talk about India outsourcing their energy security to the Paks! The whole idea is beyond stupid. But this is the ME, so it is SOP. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2006-05-11 22:05 |
| #5 agreed, John. Why would they allow it, much less encourage it? Perhaps we can route US oil wells in the Gulf through Cuba before it reaches our shores...just about as dumb |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-05-11 21:08 |
| #4 There is one word that describes this Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline idea: DUMB You only need to read Pak newspapers to understand why. It is primarily seen as providing "leverage". leverage.. as in "give us Kashmir or give us Junagadh or give us Hyderabad or we'll cut off the supply". Indian industry gets reliant on this gas and then pressures the Indian government the next time there is a Pak sponsored terror attack. So the pipeline will constrain any Indian response to terror. The other problem is the transit fees- 600 million dollars by some accounts. This is not 600 million going into the treasury of say Jamaica. It is 600 million into the Pak treasury. That means it will be used for Jihad. So the Jihad in India becomes self financing. India directly funds the terror against it. Then you have the tribals - the bugtis and mazaris who just love to blow up pipelines. Zero energy security. Then you have Iran, which does not honor agreements - it now wants to renegotiate the LNG contracts it made with India. Iran refuses to provide "rich" gas - which India desires because it can be used as feedstock for plastic manufacturing etc. Iran wants to supply gas fit only for thermal power plants. DUMB |
| Posted by: john 2006-05-11 20:17 |
| #3 gasoline won't go away if Iran is too crippled to receive it..."fungible" anyone? |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-05-11 20:02 |
| #2 It would sure benefit the whole world if the MMs were toppled from power. The middle east could really take off. Only problem is that some other nutcase would take over the helm. With the hard core Turbans in charge along with their apprat the change will be nothing if not bloody. |
| Posted by: RD 2006-05-11 19:58 |
| #1 That's why I keep saying that Iran should be partitioned. Nothing else will prevent a unified Iran from achieving what the man on the street wants: a nuclear weapon. Only when Iran is reduced to just Persia will some balance return to the region. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2006-05-11 19:53 |