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| Triple volcano risk to |
| 2006-04-29 |
| THE imminent eruption of three powerful volcanoes is endangering the lives of more than 70,000 people and threatening to affect the global climate by ejecting millions of tonnes of volcanic ash into the atmosphere. The most serious threat is posed by the Merapi volcano in central Java, one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the Pacific "Ring of Fire", which was yesterday throwing out ash and small rocks. Geologists believe that the 1.7-mile high volcano could violently erupt at any time. Two other volcanoes also giving cause for concern are the Galeras volcano in Colombia - expected to erupt within a matter of days or weeks - and the Urbinas volcano in southern Peru, which also appears to be gearing up for an eruption. Aid workers have voiced concerns about the threat posed to the thousands of people living in the vicinity of the volcanoes and the Foreign Office has issued a travel warning advising British citizens to avoid the area around Mount Merapi. It said the Indonesian centre for vulcanology had raised the alert status for the volcano and warned that an eruption might be imminent. It added: "Indonesian authorities have evacuated the villages closest to the volcano and some flights over the area have been cancelled." Aid agencies are preparing for the worst. Oxfam has briefed staff that up to 60,000 people in four districts around Merapi are at risk and that several hundred have already been relocated. Most of those relocated are women, children and the elderly, but some are returning to their homes near the volcano during the day to feed livestock. Yesterday, the tower of sulphurous smoke over the volcano had risen to 1,640ft and a rain of ash fell on one village on its slopes, which overlook the ancient city of Yogyakarta. The volcano has a history of violent eruptions. In 1994 it killed 70 people and a 1930 eruption cost the lives of 1,300 people. Government officials, including Hamengkubuwono X, the sultan of Yogyakarta and provincial governor, have been urging residents to leave the foothills, saying Merapi could erupt any time. Local vulcanologists have also noted the magma inside the volcano is reaching its peak. The Galeras volcano in Colombia began erupting in 1988 after a period of dormancy and it has a history of large-scale eruptions. About 7,000 people are thought to be at risk if, as expected, it erupts in the near future, and aid workers report that many of those directly at risk have not left their homes. The potential eruption of the Urbinas volcano in southern Peru puts some 4,500 people at risk. The volcano, about 470 miles from Lima, has triggered earth tremors which have been felt in the capital. Peruvian authorities have declared a state of emergency in the area after the volcano started to eject gas and ash over a radius of 3.5 miles. Geologists report a dome of lava appears to be building in the crater, a sign that an eruption is imminent. The eruption of any volcano can have an effect on local and global climate and three large eruptions close together could have a significant impact, leading to cooler temperatures. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to a drop in global air temperature over the next three years of between 0.2 and 0.5 °C, according to NASA, which conducted a study into the effects of the millions of tonnes of ash and sulphur dioxide blown into the atmosphere. Yesterday David Crichton, visiting professor at the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London, said it was possible that the three volcanoes now expected to erupt could have similar effects. "Volcanoes can have an impact on climate," he said. "Sulphur dioxide can have a cooling effect and there is also a dimming effect on the sun caused by the clouds of ash." |
| Posted by:phil_b |
| #25 It's ok -- I've stocked up on dust masks, and there are always robins and sparrows to eat. ;-) |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2006-04-29 22:49 |
| #24 I kind of like the Gore -> volcano as sacrifice move, myself. |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-04-29 21:36 |
| #23 so....you're saying I should be for higher CAFE standards to abet the Volcano-God? |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-04-29 21:22 |
| #22 75,000 years ago the Toba volcano in Indonesia erupted, spewing 2,800 cubic kilometers of material in a plume some 25 km high. That's 2800 times the output of the Mt. St. Helens eruption a few years ago. The ash has been measured to be over 15' deep in most parts of India and Pakistan. Estimates are that Toba also emitted 10 to the 12th power kilograms of sulfuric acid into the atmosphere. The result was pretty dramatic. A 6 year global winter. And a major genetic bottleneck as temperatures dropped 5 degrees C, on average, accelerating an ice age that was just getting started. Geneticists estimate that most hominid lines died out at that point and that the population of homo sapiens (i.e. us) was reduced to fewer than 2,000 in east Africa and less than 10,000 worldwide. This was not the first eruption known at Toba. An earlier one 788,000 years ago also spread magma and ash thousands of kilometers. Merapi is in the same system as Toba. It and its neighbors have a nasty habit of occasional massive eruptions that have a worldwide impact (although not usually as huge as Toba's). Doesn't mean it will happen soon, but it's definitely not out of the range of possibility. [end-geekness LOL] |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-04-29 21:07 |
| #21 The VEI (Volcanic Eruption Index) |
| Posted by: Ptah 2006-04-29 19:35 |
| #20 OP, stratovolcanos can explosively erupt injecting large quantities of material into the atmosphere. Some people think we are overdue for a VEI5+ eruption. There were none in the 20th century, while there two in the 19th century. A VEI5+ eruption would have a global impact. Otherwise, the writer is wrong to characterize the effect of a large eruption as just climate cooling. Recent research strongly indicates that while the initial effect is cooling from dust in the atmosphere, there is a longer term warming effect from the gases ejected. Because the dust is removed from the atmosphere faster than the gases. Some people think the increase global temperatures we saw in the mid 1990s, peaking in 1998 was from Pinatubo. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2006-04-29 18:57 |
| #19 Let's see, now. There's an active volcano in Nicaragua puffing steam and gasses, one on the island of Martinique in the Caribbean, one in Ecuador, two or three on the Kamchatka peninsula, AT LEAST one in Hawaii (plus one bubbling beneath the surface to the southeast of the big island of Hawaii), Mount Etna is bubbling and churning, and the New Zealanders have an active volcano. Mt. St. Helens is growing/shrinking, indicating it's still pretty active. There's a good chance that Mt Rainier and Mt. Hood could explode in the next 100 years, and the Yellowstone Caldera continues to be active. There's increasing evidence of additional volcanic pressure in the old Silveton caldera, and there's been some tectonic activity near Trinidad, in southern Colorado that many call the preludes to volcanic activity in the area (the nearby Spanish Peaks are leftovers from a late-Pliestocene volcano). Now, why should non-locals be worried about these particular three again? |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2006-04-29 17:33 |
| #18 I propose sacrificing AlGore to the Volcano Gods. Should be an even swap in gaseous emissions spewed |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-04-29 14:10 |
| #17 Just as long as it's not Long Valley Caldera OK... |
| Posted by: SPoD 2006-04-29 13:43 |
| #16 Just as long as Mt. Saint Helens doesn't blow again! |
| Posted by: FeralCat 2006-04-29 12:20 |
| #15 Embrace Change! Especially copper pennies! |
| Posted by: 6 2006-04-29 11:30 |
| #14 It's all Bush's fault!!! He didn't sign Kyoto!! Global |
| Posted by: DathVader 2006-04-29 11:06 |
| #13 This wouldn't happen if the Indons went back to worshipping the volcano god. |
| Posted by: ed 2006-04-29 10:54 |
| #12 The media are working up articles for file on "The botched response to the ______ volcano." |
| Posted by: KBK 2006-04-29 10:42 |
| #11 The media are working up articles for file on "The botched response to the ______ volcano." |
| Posted by: KBK 2006-04-29 10:42 |
| #10 I keep telling you folks, the operative phrase among the "experts" is now "climate change", not "global warming". That way, they're never wrong, which makes them "experts"... |
| Posted by: tu3031 2006-04-29 10:24 |
| #9 So if we see that start of a Little Ice Age, does that mean we can do back to coal fired generation plants, remove the cat converters from our cars, and start chugging unblended gas again? |
| Posted by: Glins Shinerong2352 2006-04-29 10:16 |
| #8 Oh this is just great! Just when I was getting my hopes up about the Global Warming we're going to have a Little Ice Age. |
| Posted by: eLarson 2006-04-29 09:49 |
| #7 I like #5, it's very troothy. |
| Posted by: 6 2006-04-29 09:43 |
| #6 URK. What I WANTED to quote was: The eruption of any volcano can have an effect on local and global climate and three large eruptions close together could have a significant impact, leading to cooler temperatures. PIMF |
| Posted by: Ptah 2006-04-29 08:30 |
| #5 He said that the jirga members were ready to sacrifice their lives to uphold their verdict. Those worried about global warming should therefore be gratified... |
| Posted by: Ptah 2006-04-29 08:29 |
| #4 OK Moonbats, let's hear your plan to contain these Deadly Carbon Dioxide emissions. |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2006-04-29 08:23 |
| #3 Hope we get some good pictures of these volcanoes going off. From a safe distsance of course. |
| Posted by: Charles 2006-04-29 07:00 |
| #2 Volcanos, why do they hate us? |
| Posted by: DanNY 2006-04-29 06:56 |
| #1 Quick, call Brownie |
| Posted by: Captain America 2006-04-29 00:38 |