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| Sri Lanka |
| Sri Lankan ceasefire agreement in tatters by suicide bombing |
| 2006-04-26 |
| After letting the LTTE get away with 95% of the violations of the Ceasefire Agreement since it was signed in 2002 -- a statistic quoted by the European Peace Monitors -- the Sri Lankan government yesterday launched a joint air naval and ground attack on LTTE strongholds in Trincomalee shortly after a female suicide bomber targeted the car of Army Commander, Sarath Fonseka, injuring him critically and killing 10 others last afternoon. In a 15-minute address to the nation President Mahinda Rajapakse said that he will not be scared off by the LTTE terror tactics. He emphasized that these were provocative attacks launched by the LTTE to incite mob attacks on Tamil civilians. He appealed to the people not to be provoked by these violent acts of the LTTE. Even before he came on air Israeli-built Kafirs bombed the LTTE Sampur camp and the Sri Lankan Navy and the army joined in shelling the Tiger-controlled area in the Trincomalee. This is first time since the Ceasefire Agreement was signed in 2002 that the Sri Lankan forces launched an official attack against the LTTE. A 14 hour curfew too was imposed on Trincomalee. ndian Defence Minister, Pranab Mukherjee placed a special call to President Rajapakse and "conveyed India's solidarity with the government and people of the island in its "difficult hour", according to press release of India's External Ministry. Mukherjee conveyed India's shock at the attack on Sri Lankan Army Chief Lt Gen Sarath Fonseka and condemned it as a "brazen act of terrorism". This is the first international reaction. The other reactions are expected to be very severe on the LTTE. Australia is expected to ban the LTTE in toto and crack down further on LTTE activities on Australian soil. According to political analysts the international backlash against the LTTE will impact heavily with the anti-terrorist wrath hitting them hard. Analysts believe that the LTTE had miscalculated its move and it will not get away easily this time as expected by them. Though the Army Commander was targeted to show its power this "brazen act of terrorism" is bound to ricochet on the LTTE and lose whatever sympathy there was left for it from the international community just at a time when they needed it most. In the eyes of the international community the LTTE has justified the military action that has been launched by the Sri Lankan Government, according to analysts. Political analysts also pointed out that despite the Ceasefire Agreement which stipulates a 14-day notice before going back to war both sides are now engaged in an undeclared war. The Tamil Tiger attack on the Army commander and the three-pronged air, naval and ground attacks on the LTTE military camp in the Trincomalee district have blown the last shred of the claim of Erik Solheim that his Ceasefire Agreement has worked. The undeclared war that began yesterday is a blow not only to any prospects of peace in the immediate future but also to Solheim's reputation as a "facilitator". At the last minute neither his deputy Hanssen-Bauer nor the Head of the Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission, Ulf Henricsson, could meet S. P. Thamilselvam, Head of the Political Wing of the LTTE. Thamilselvam did not agree to meet them even after the two stayed overnight in Killinochchi. Both Henricsson and Hanssen-Bauer returned empty handed without any response from the LTTE. Solheim today is trapped in his own Ceasefire Agreement without a way out for him to rescue either peace or Norway's shattered image as a failed "facilitator". All political parties (including the Tamil parties except the LTTE) have been critical of the role played by Solheim, the LTTE-friendly "facilitator", who had taken their side publicly and let the LTTE off the hook even when they committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. At the Geneva it was noted that he intervened to exonerate the LTTE when evidence was mounted to establish the war crime of forced child conscription. Lakshman Kadirgamar, the former Foreign Minister who was assassinated by the LTTE, bluntly blamed Solheim for not exerting greater pressure on the LTTE. But Solheim often claimed that the Ceasefire he brokered had saved lives. The Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission in a press release said yesterday that 300 had died since January alone - half of whom were military personnel and the other half civilians. Analysts also believe that Velupillai Prabhakaran has taken a huge gamble in targeting the Army Commander. Earlier Prabhakaran had pledged to give some breathing space for President Rajapakse who took over reins of the office in November. But he reneged on his own commitment and increased provocative violence targeting of soldiers with claymore mines. Some political analysts say that that they cannot dismiss the hand of Solheim playing a covert role in escalating the violence as a part of his pressure tactics to extract more and more concession from the Government. The tactics of Solheim and the LTTE were to pressure the Government through violence to the point of forcing the latter to cave into their demands. They misread the restraint of the Government as a sign of weakness. President Rajapakse last night declared bluntly that his patience was not a sign of weakness and he won't be scared by terror tactics. Solheim's attempts to manipulate and force the Government to yield to the unending demands of the LTTE failed last night when the Government retaliated in the language that the LTTE understands. After bearing the burden of patience for four years the Government retaliated with force to send a strong signal to the LTTE, according to Government sources. Does this mean that the Ceasefire Agreement has ceased to exist? Palitha Kohona, Head of the Sri Lankan Peace Secretariat, states that the Ceasefire Agreement is still in place for the Tamil Tigers to come back negotiations. The LTTE is now seeking clarification from the SLMM as to whether the Government has declared war. According to a statement issued by Ulf Henricsson he expects the offensive launched by the Government to be a limited operation to bring the LTTE back to the negotiating table. But this is not likely, according to some analysts, who say that the LTTE has been rearing for a fight. They have been raising funds globally for the "Final War". They have armed themselves to the teeth. They have been raising the temperature by escalating violence. Each time the Government moved closer to a compromise the Tamil Tigers escalated their demands blocking path to peace talks. Erik Solheim was either unwilling or unable to draw the line as to where the violence should end and peace should begin. He was sailing along with the LTTE which gave them the licence to flout the Ceasefire Agreement each time they desired. The Tamil Tigers havealso been warning the Tamils of Jaffna that the Ceasefire Agreement will be broken soon and war will be resumed, endangering the lives of people in the peninsula. The leaflets distributed urged the Jaffna people to come back to Vanni where they could be protected. Political analysts also argue that 2006 marks the 30th anniversary of the LTTE fathered by Velupillai Prabhakaran and he is bent on launching final assault on the Sri Lankan forces to commemorate the anniversary. These factors indicate that the LTTE is ready for a major confrontation. But whether the LTTE will react with a counter-offensive is yet to be seen.Some analysts argue that the LTTE is likely to use the bombing as an excuse to jump out of the Ceasefire Agreement (particularly the 14-day notice) and launch an offensive targeting Jaffna. But others argue that the LTTE would be restrained by the possible backlash of the international community and Karuna of the east who may come out into the open equipped with better arms and increased cadres. If LTTE goes ahead with an all out offensive in the north military analysts argue that the Tigers would be vulnerable in the east. Since both sides will be freed from the restraints of the Ceasefire Agreement if a major confrontation takes place there is the likelihood of the Army joining hands with the Karuna Group openly. "The LTTE is not in a position to fight in the east and the north. And whatever short terms gains the LTTE may score, they are bound to lose in the long run with the international community and the Tamils of the east rising against the Vanni leadership", said a military analyst. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |