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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
US allies losing ground on IranÂ’s nuclear advance
2006-04-15
With every new Iranian advance, hopes dim for keeping Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons and as the United States and its allies try to delay that day experts and diplomats say they are losing ground. “We are running out of options,” one European diplomat who deals with non-proliferation issues told Reuters on Wednesday. “The Iranians are producing facts on the ground and we’re not responding fast enough.”

A senior Russian official in Washington, who also spoke anonymously because he was not authorized to comment, acknowledged: “We don’t know what to do. Iran is a real headache now.” Iran has long been moving in this direction, but the announcement on Tuesday that it had produced a first batch of enriched uranium marked another milestone. If true, it brings Tehran closer to making fuel for nuclear bombs. Experts say actual bomb-making is probably five to 10 years away, although they are not sure. The enrichment advance triggered condemnations from the world’s leading powers, including Russia and China, and US demands that the UN Security Council respond with “strong steps.”

Available options - more negotiations and rhetorical pressure, sanctions and military strikes - have been the same since Iran was found in 2002 to be hiding the extent of its nuclear activities. All present problems. “What’s needed is to change radically Iran’s calculations of the costs and benefits” of pursuing nuclear weapons, said Robert Einhorn, former top US non-proliferation official.

That means “the Russians and the Chinese being prepared to cooperate in penalties (on Iran) but it also means the United States being prepared to engage directly with Iran and offer the prospect of a more normal relationship with this regime,” Einhorn, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Reuters. But US officials, congressional aides and diplomats said there was no sign the administration is amenable to any dialogue with Tehran beyond proposed talks on Iraq that have yet to occur. Tehran insists it seeks to produce civilian energy; the West says it is developing weapons.
Posted by:Fred

#9  I strongly suspect that the package for Iran will include visits from SF supported inspection teams to conduct on site BDA of known atomic sites. If we found traces of Chinese fissionable materials I think MFN would be out the window. That's a big risk for China.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-04-15 17:59  

#8  One question is would the Chinese repeat their proliferation of U 235 ?
They provided several bombs worth of material to Pakistan. They later provided Pu.

Would they have the nerve to do the same with Iran?



Posted by: john   2006-04-15 17:41  

#7  You gotta crawl before you can walk.

Serious design experience is needed before a nation can develop thermonuclear weapon. The Chinese have not, as far as we know, proliferated this design type.

A program with a lot of technicians, working from blueprints, like Pakistan, North Korea and Iran, is unlikely to achieve this jump in capability.
Note that even Israel, going from the traitor Vanunu's photographs, doesn't seem to have developed true two stage fusion weapons. The design Vanunu exposed was a sloika type device.
And Israel has real physicists working on their program.

Another nation with real physicists is India.
It took them more than 25 years before they had a two stage thermonuclear weapon. Granted, a lot of this was political reluctance to order development. They have yet to test it at full yield (quite problematic for their test site and their shaft construction techniques).

Posted by: john   2006-04-15 13:16  

#6  As in the other tests, there is no evidence that plutonium was used.


All of the Chinese detonations have utilized enriched uranium (U 235 ) as the primary fissionable material

Ah John! Questions finally answered. I was afraid the Persians were building a tamper for a fusion weapon.
Posted by: 6   2006-04-15 09:52  

#5  
Iran took Chinese beryllium for nuclear weapons

15:39 2005-09-01
Iran obtained 20 kilograms (44 pounds) of beryllium for its nuclear weapons program from China last year, an Iranian opposition group claimed Thursday.


This further decreases estimates of the HEU needed for the Iranian bomb.

Whereas 60 kg would have been needed for a Little Boy design, the Fat Man design would require only 20 kg.

However this isn't 1944. The 1966 Chinese weapon was small enough to fit on a missile. This tells you (a) more advanced explosive lens design (b) beryllium reflected core (c) smaller overall weapon.

With the use of neutron reflector shells, the Chinese design probably uses <15 kg of HEU.

Posted by: john   2006-04-15 08:47  

#4  If Osama had a nuke weapon, he would have used it long ago.

As regards the Iranian Uranium bomb.. it is a mistake to assume it is a Little Boy gun type weapon too large to deliver on a missile.

The 4th Chinese nuclear weapon test in 1966 was delivered by a DF-2 missile. The design of that weapon was provided to Pakistan.
It is an implosion type weapon - less than 1 meter in diameter and weighing 500 kg.

Here is a photo from that Chinese test


Read this

IMPACT OF CHINESE COMMUNIST NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRESS ON NATIONAL SECURITY

REPORT OF JOINT COMMITTEE ON ATOMIC ENERGY
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

JULY 1967

The missile-delivered fourth Chinese test demonstrated that
the Chinese now have the capability to design a low yield fission
warhead compatible in size and weight with a missile.

October 27, 1966: Low intermediate (20 to 200kilotons).
As in the other tests, there is no evidence that plutonium was used.


All of the Chinese detonations have utilized enriched uranium (U 235 ) as the primary fissionable material. Uranium-238 was also present in all tests. The detonation of any device which also contains U 238 results in some fissioning of the U 238. The debris from their third and fifth tests indicated some thermonuclear reactions had involved lithium-6 in those devices.





Posted by: john   2006-04-15 08:21  

#3  You know, it really is tiresome how many people cry foul at the first sign of U.S. unilateralism, but call for just that whenever the U.S. uses multinational institutions, be they 6-party talks with the Norks, or the U.N. in the case of Iran.
Posted by: Perfessor   2006-04-15 08:15  

#2  Suitcase nuke reports are rubbish.

Posted by: john   2006-04-15 08:00  

#1  Even presuming an indigenous, wholly Iranian-specific/dev uranium bomb, various bloggers on differ sites believe that Iran can realistically or potentially produce 1-4 low-yield uranium-based bombs, or at least 1-2, by end-of-summer and end-of-year 2006. All agree that once Iran succeeds in dev a uranium bomb(s), Iran will continue to intensify its dev towards missle-capable, plutonium-based nuke arsenals - WINDS OF CHANGE has posts reminding their membership that China, vv proxies North Korea and Pakistan {Alq Khan network], has been wilfully engaging in [anti-US] nuke proliferation, including enrichment/bomb design tech, for 10 years now. For now, in 2006 the main threat to American and Israeli interests are tech transfers to extremist groups - a nuclear event(s), regardless of magnitude, occurring in the ME only is still cause for America's concern, and still cause for US-led mil action againt Iran. Osama and AQ are already reported or believed to in possession of Russian Mafia/Black market-supplied "suitcase" bombs.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2006-04-15 00:58  

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