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| Terror Networks |
| Al-Qaeda leaders often follow up boasts with bombings |
| 2006-02-02 |
| The eminently political nature of Ayman al-Zawahri's latest videotaped message is reviving the debate on the nature, structure and strategy of al Qaeda. In his statement broadcast Monday on al Jazeera, Osama bin Laden's deputy seemed to directly address the American and British people by urging them to turn against their own leaders. The key to preventing the next attack by al Qaeda is understanding what's really happened to the organization since Sept. 11, 2001. Where are its pressure points? Where is it still strong? Where is it weak? Where do the United States and its allies need to focus their efforts and resources? Pakistan? Iraq? Saudi Arabia? Our collective security depends on how accurately these questions can be answered by intelligence and law enforcement officials in the next few months. Many analysts and so-called terrorism experts describe the post-9/11 al Qaeda as "fatally wounded." It has suffered the loss of its sanctuary, the arrests or deaths of hundreds of its members, and the isolation of its leaders. Weakened by the pressure of a worldwide intelligence effort, cut from its financial networks, and incapable of communicating in the open, al Qaeda, these commentators say, has been reduced to a loose collection of cells, or merely an ideology in which the "call to action" is executed by "amateurs" without specific instructions or links to the organization. While there is mounting evidence that bin Laden and al-Zawahri have had to radically rethink how they do business, the essence and ambitions of their organization have not fundamentally changed. Al Qaeda is known for trying to influence the political life of Western democracies. Indeed there are many indications that the March 2004 Madrid bombings, which killed 191 people, were explicitly scheduled to influence the Spanish elections. They ultimately did. In a speech broadcast a few days before the 2004 U.S. presidential election, bin Laden exhorted the American people to vote against George W. Bush — and incidentally, Sen. John Kerry. The timing and contents of Monday's message suggest that al Qaeda's No. 2 wants the world to know he's alive, and is also trying to squeeze himself into Bush's limelight. So does this strategy suggest a shift away from terrorist attacks? Fifty-five months and about 1,000 arrests after 9/11, the threat of a terrorist attack inside the United States is still high, as evidenced by bin Laden's latest announcement that "the operations are under preparation and you will see them in your homes." The U.S. intelligence community certainly takes these words seriously. From bin Laden's call to attack the West in 2002, which preceded the Bali bombings, to al-Zawahri's condemnation of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in 2003, which led to two unsuccessful assassination attempts, it seems that every warning in these tapes has been followed by action. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |