An American news and analysis service claimed this week that Al Qaeda and its leadership are headquartered in NWFP’s Dir and Swat districts, and possibly Malakand, given the confluence of certain unique ground conditions in those locations. Stratfor said, “For Al Qaeda’s leaders to be in touch with global news and events, and to be relaying sophisticated communiqués, they need to be in an area that offers satellite television, Internet access, an electricity supply, basic equipment, mail service and good roads. The NWFP meets these criteria; the (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) FATA, where Islamabad’s control was minimal until recently, does not.
Not really. Generators and microwave access would cover it. Roads and mail service don't count when you've got internet. With a decent connection you can stay home all day and play with your stuff, never venturing out of the cave house except to throw another few gallons of diesel into the 30kw generator. With a crummy connection maybe you're up sporadically. Every goober with a turban and a gun seems to have a satphone. I'd guess the big turbans are close to whatever "legitimate" microwave there is in FATA — I'm assuming there's some, to maintain the government and ISI infrastructure. A single voice-grade channel would probably do them, if they don't mind waiting for the phone or the computer, and they become a part of the background babble of civil communications. More likely they've got a bloc of channels made available to them by... ummm... whoever's backing them. |
Given that FATA is a backwater in terms of infrastructure, it is highly unlikely that improvements in production and delivery (in the latest al-Zawahri video) could have emerged from this region.”
| Then again, it's possible they're not in that region. I'm still leaning toward Qazi's guesthouse as Binny's present abode... |
Stratfor said neither Bin Laden nor Al-Zawahri would risk staying close to the Afghan border in FATA, as it would leave them vulnerable to a US air strike from Afghan territory. On the contrary, they would want to remain as deep within Pakistani territory as possible.
The US might be willing to risk violating Pakistani airspace to fire missiles into FATA - as it did in the January 13 strike against Bajaur AgencyÂ’s Damadola village - but it is unlikely to venture as deep as settled areas in NWFP proper. US intelligence has disclosed, said the agency, that al-Zawahri is known to have visited Damadola on several occasions - suggesting he is able to make the journey fairly easily.
| Which indicates to me he lives in the area... |
According to Stratfor, “Interestingly, Dir borders Bajaur Agency to the north-northwest, while Malakand borders Bajaur to the southwest. Global attention, however, has focused on two specific FATA agencies: North Waziristan and South Waziristan, both of which are far from Bajaur, separated by Kurram, Khyber, Orakzai and Mohmand agencies. Bajaur Agency also borders Afghanistan’s Kunar province, which is a hotbed of Taliban and Al Qaeda activity...
| Bajaur it probably is, then, for Ayman and maybe Mullah Omar. |
Al-Zawahri’s reference to ‘four brothers’ present in Damadola village during the January 13 US air strike includes Abu Obaidah al-Masri, an Egyptian Al Qaeda operative ... Al-Masri’s presence in Bajaur underscores the region’s importance as an Al Qaeda staging base for operations in Afghanistan.” Stratfor said all these factors lend credence to its view that, although Al Qaeda might maintain facilities all over FATA, its leadership is unlikely in the remote tribal areas. Al-Zawahri’s appearance most often in videos suggests that Bin Laden is being protected at a separate location, one that is not easily accessible to the Al Qaeda “studio,” while Al-Zawahri is in close proximity to the facility.
| That fits with my theory that Binny is in Fazl's guest house. Or Qazi's. Or Hamid Gul's. |
“Both al-Zawahri and Bin Laden are in the rural western areas of the NWFP and frequently attend tribal gatherings there, indicating that they feel secure with - and have influence over - the local Pashtuns, whose support they need if they are to remain secure. That this is the best hiding place they can find in all of Pakistan, however, demonstrates that Al Qaeda’s constituency comprises peripheral members of society,” Stratfor added. |