On Monday, an Iranian military plane crash killed eleven top commanders in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Gen. Ahmad Kazemi, the commander of IRGC's ground forces, died in the crash. The dead also included a number of other military notables whose names were released by the Islamic Republic News Agency, including the commander of Rassoulollah Army Division 27, the deputy commander of ground forces for operation affairs and the official in charge of information for ground forces.While a spokesman for the IRGC has blamed bad weather and dilapidated engines for the crash, my sources are convinced that this was an act of sabotage. Stratfor has weighed in with its analysis of the crash, noting that while "[i]t is entirely possible that the plane crashed due to technical difficulties," there are reasons to suspect foul play:
Though maintenance negligence offers a plausible explanation for the crash, the death of several of Iran's senior IRGC commanders comes at a particularly interesting juncture in Iran's political history. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election was not fully endorsed by the entire Iranian political spectrum. His firebrand antics, though coming in pursuit of a strategy to raise the Islamic republic's profile in the Muslim world, have stirred up noticeable hintes of dissent within the ruling regime. One of Ahmadinejad's top security guards in the Ansar al-Mahdi Corps, a unit of the IRGC responsible for the personal security of senior Iranian officials, died Dec. 14 in an ambush on the presidential motorcade in Iran's lawless Sistan and Balochistan province.
Considering that the Falcon was carrying one of Iran's most elite IRGC commanders, and would thus undergo thorough tests for technical issues before flight, the crash could also indicate foul play aimed at undermining Ahmadinejad's power base and influence.
Stratfor also states that in the wake of the plane crash, "Ahmadinejad's power base has been severely threatened."
While the Iranian regime would never publicly admit that this was an act of sabotage, the situation bears watching. If sabotage occurred, observers believe that it was either a product of the "mullah wars," in which Iran's mullahs have been clashing with president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, or else was orchestrated by members of the IRGC who are sympathetic with the opposition to the regime and stay in the IRGC to harm it from the inside. My sources believe that the former is more likely.
Amir Taheri has described the clash between Ahmadinejad and the mullahs. This clash is rooted in both Ahmadinejad's investigation of the Iranian political establishment's corruption and also an honesty about the goals of the Islamic revolution that conflicts with the dissimulation of other Iranian politicians. Even Ayatollah Khamenei, who helped to bring Ahmadinejad to power, may feel threatened by the new president as it is widely believed that Ahmadinejad would like to replace Khameini as supreme leader with his closest clerical ally, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.
If the military plane crash is an act of sabotage, that shows how severe the fissures within Iran have become. Even while pursuing the UN Security Council as one option for dealing with the Iranian nuclear program, the U.S. needs to carefully follow, and be willing to exploit, the power struggle within Iran.