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Iraq
Iraqi Sunni Leader Threatens 'Civil War'
2005-12-27
Sheikh Khalaf al-Alyan, chairman of the (Sunni) National Dialogue Council (NDC), has threatened to ignite civil war if matters do not return back to normal and they (the Sunnis) are not given their elections rights. He accused persons in the Higher Iraqi Elections Commission and in the (Shiite) Unified Iraqi Coalition that is led by Abdulaziz al-Hakim who is also leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution, of rigging the elections results and committing major violations. On his part, Dr. Hussein al-Hindawi, the Higher Elections Commission chairman, admitted that there were violations whose victims were the National Iraqi List that is led by Dr. Iyad Allawi.
Looks like they're chosing up sides now.
Al-Alyan's movement the NDC entered into an alliance with the People of Iraq Council that is led by Dr. Adnan al-Dulaymi and the Iraqi Islamic Party that is led by Hamid Abdal Muhsin and formed a broad Sunni coalition called Al-Tawafuq. He said, "We have informed the Commission of the violations that took place during the elections, especially in Baghdad. We also informed the US side, the United Nations, and the Arab League. Our stand is known: Either hold the elections again or change them to give us our rights."
I suspect there might be a shred of truth to what he's hollering about. I still don't discount the NYT story on the Medes and the Persians shipping stuffed ballot boxes to Iraq.
Speaking by telephone to "Asharq al-Awsat" yesterday, he said, "We are not going to let things go in the coming stage and there must be a solution. Either we obtain our rights of participation in the Assembly, as we deserve, or withdraw. We will not allow the formation of a national assembly and will not remain spectators or oppositionists but rest assured that it will turn into civil war, may God save us from its end. All the Iraqi nationalists will be in a resistance front against these tendencies (he meant the Shiite Coalition)."
Now the question becomes whether they're going to actually engage in Armed Struggle™ to gain their putative rights. While I don't discount the NYT story, it's also possible it was a setup for just this routine. They're not real big on the concept of "loyal opposition," but even in an Arab country they need some sort of pretext. But they could also be making faces and jumping up and down in their inimitable Sunni manner to exact concessions that they had no chance for in the actual balloting.
Al-Alyan added, "Our rights are known and we are convinced that the elections were rigged, especially in Baghdad where we had areas in the capital that were totally closed to us. We were excepting to exceed the Coalition by more than 300,000 votes. However, the result now is the Coalition exceeding us by 1 million votes and this is quite unreasonable. Our calculations were accurate and documented in the centers and from the first count. We do not accept any other result unless it tallies with the facts we know. We will not allow the formation of parliament or national government unless they give us back our rights, either by holding the elections again all over Iraq or in Baghdad. The important thing is to have our rights given back to us."
Posted by:Fred

#16  Broadhead6 et al,

Check the burg archives from last week if you get the chance. I'll do the same, but I thought someone posted turnout by province at least, I dunno about ethnic makeup though. My guess is that it is reflected in the balloting, but what kind of census data is really available. I mean, what's the registration process like in Iraq right now, walk up registration or what?

I'd like to get some clarity re: whether the story was a hoax or not regarding ballot box stuffing via Iran. I'm betting that it was real and more extensive then previously stated. Hell, with the resources Iran puts into counterfeiting, I'd have no doubt these bastards could pull it off.

That being said the Sunni rabble rousers should watch their P's & Q's. Their sabre rattling aside, they have some powerful allies in the secular Shiia and Kurdish communities who are echoing their statements, but I'd guess that most Shiia in Iraq would oblige them a nasty little Civil War if they continue the Sunni civil war rhetoric and splodeydopefullness. The Sunnis aren't exactly popular amongst the average Shiite, and their obvious support of murderous villians and their past rep with Saddam might just get them annihalated.

Hell of a shame that would be, comeuppins if'n you ask me.

EP
Posted by: ElvisHasLeftTheBuilding   2005-12-27 16:21  

#15  Dictionary definition of civil war: A war between factions or regions of the same country. Judging from the relatively low casualty rates, this ain't exactly the American Civil War, where 700,000 on both sides died.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2005-12-27 13:07  

#14  #10 Whenever the U.S. military finally withdraws from Iraq and turns over the reigns of power and security to the Iraqis, Civil War is inevitable.

Sounds like there won't be any civil war soon given the experience of Germany, Japan, Italy, Korea, et. al. But you are correct, the guys who have to watch out are the onw's left when the Amis scoot, the Vietnamese, Lebanese, and Hatians, etc.
Posted by: Flinelet Floger3685   2005-12-27 10:49  

#13  Thanks, BH6. I thought the ballot stuffing story rang true. Dexter Filkin is a pretty good reporter, so I couldn't see him getting that snookered. I hadn't heard about the Soddy truckload, but since the methods ere similar my guess would be that they were actually Shiite ballots.

I'm wondering how closely the vote count tallies with whatever exit polling was done.

Having the stuffed ballot boxes allows a reasonably clean election process. The dirt comes at the counting stage.
Posted by: Fred   2005-12-27 10:28  

#12  Sore Loserman

Does sound rather similar, doesn't it? That they're willing to burn down their own house in a fit of pique not only says a lot about themselves, but others of like mindset....*cDEoMOuCRgATSh*...
Posted by: Bomb-a-rama   2005-12-27 10:27  

#11  Broadhead6, please check me on this but I thought I heard on TV that the ballot trucks were a hoax. As far as the Sunnis threatening civil war they really should read the story about Custer and his last stand. They still think of the Shites and Kurds as subordinate to them and that they should be in charge. They can't understand why they lost an election, after all they had been holding them for years and the Kurds and Shia had never come close to winning. Maybe they can have Tom Daschele come speak to them?
Posted by: Cyber Sarge   2005-12-27 10:13  

#10  Whenever the U.S. military finally withdraws from Iraq and turns over the reigns of power and security to the Iraqis, Civil War is inevitable.
Posted by: Cassini   2005-12-27 10:12  

#9  I can see it now. A rich Kurd North, a rich (but supressed) Shite south, and a poor and suppressed
Syria East. What's wrong with that?
Posted by: plainslow   2005-12-27 10:08  

#8  Let the Wahabi Sunnis mine sand.

LOL, each grain a prayer lovely seething bead to finger as they pound forehead 5 times a day.
Posted by: Red Dog   2005-12-27 08:36  

#7  Let them revolt. The Sunni minority have been lording over the region for far too long.

The Shia and the Kurds have the oil. Let the Wahabi Sunnis mine sand. They can sell it by the truckload. Should make a few cents per load.

Biggest oilfields in Saudi are also in traditional Shia areas IIRC.

Dismemberment of Iraq and Saudi would be a death blow to the Wahabi death cult. Take away their oil money and they revert to their natural state - desert savages nobody cares about. Can't fund madrassas when you don't have the cash. And nobody admires a pauper.

Of course that leaves the problem of Iran. Shia power would be an interesting change for the middle east except for the freaks that run Iran.

The mullahs in Iran have to go...


Posted by: john   2005-12-27 08:01  

#6  Of course they are. They are going to threaten civil war EVERY time they don't get what they want. No matter how small the demand it's going to be that or civil war.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2005-12-27 07:55  

#5  What did you have so far?
Posted by: gromgoru   2005-12-27 07:46  

#4  Iraqi Sunni Leader Threatens 'Civil War'


Sore Loserman
Posted by: Chad   2005-12-27 05:16  

#3  "We were excepting to exceed the Coalition by more than 300,000 votes."

This shows the real problem. The Sunni Arabs have been holding the whip for so long that they actually believe they are a majority. Something tells me that these jerks aren't going to make peace until they are really SCARED what of the Iraqi army can do to them. A 1000-year tradition of rule-by-fear doesn't end in 3 years.
Posted by: Apostate   2005-12-27 03:07  

#2  We did confiscate a truck coming from Iran w/ballots for the Shiite Coalition. Another truck was seized coming from Saudi Arabia w/counterfeit ballots but I was not told whether these wer pro-shia or sunni.

Hard to tell how many counterfeit ballots came in or if there was enough to sway the election in any way. I think complaints of voter fraud was actually comparatively low even to our own elections based on the number of votes cast. Maybe there is some truth to what this guy says even beyond the intel I have. I'm not in the local Baghdad AO.

I wonder if someone here on the 'burg who has the time could do some sort of empirical fact check. I'd be interested to see if the final results of elections reflect the demographics of the respective provinces in any way.

For all our sake I hope Iran didn't get lucky and stuff some ballot boxes under our collective noses. I hate those sons of bitches enough as it is. Though a civil war would probably just be another form of "due process darwinism" w/these assholes - I'm not too keen about trying to clean up that mess.
Posted by: Broadhead6   2005-12-27 03:06  

#1  ..has threatened to ignite civil war if matters do not return back to normal and they (the Sunnis) are not given their elections rights.

Somehow, I get the feeling that it wouldn't be much of a contest, especially if the Kurds hook up with the Shiites.
Posted by: Bomb-a-rama   2005-12-27 01:16  

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