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Iraq
Tehran Backing Chalabi as Iraq's Next PM
2005-11-09
Ahmad Chalabi, the Iraqi deputy prime minister and leader of the Iraqi National Congress (INC) party, has won the conditional support of the Iranian leadership for his decision to contest the elections independently of the "Unified Iraqi Coalition." Senior officials in Tehran have also expressed their support for Chalabi as the prime minister after the Iraqi elections to be held in mid-December if he wins enough seats in parliament that qualifies him to compete with the other likely leading candidates former Prime Minister Dr. Iyad Allawi, incumbent Prime Minister Dr. Ibrahim al-Jafari, and Adel Abdul Mahdi, the prominent leader in the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution (SCIRI) and vice president.

A high-level source in the office of Iranian Guide Ali Khomeini has disclosed to "Asharq al-Awsat" that the supreme leadership in Tehran is deeply worried these days by the rise in Dr. Allawi's political fortunes after his success in forming an expanded list that includes important parties and national figures and in the wake of signals from Shiite religious leader Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani indicating his dismay and frustration with the failed performance of Dr. Al-Jafari's Government on one hand and on the other the failure of the deputies from SCIRI, Al-Dawah Party, and other Shiite parties to fulfill the promises they had made and the splits in the Unified Iraqi Coalition. The source pointed out that Ayatollah Al-Sistani has not only stopped opposing Allawi's return as head of the government but there are also indications that the supreme Shiite cleric views Allawi as the only Shiite politician capable of putting an end to the interference of the Iranian intelligence services and Revolutionary Guards (IRG) in Iraq's internal affairs.

The Iranian source added that Chalabi succeeded in persuading Iranian President Ahmadinezhad and Hashemi Shamrah, his highly influential adviser, that he is the only one capable of scheduling the US and British withdrawal from Iraq, that Washington and London trust and respect him, and that his presence as the head of the Iraqi government will reduce in a noticeable way Washington's fears from Iran's growing influence. At the same time, Tehran knows very well that Chalabi will not turn into an enemy because the ties that link him to the ruling regime in Iran are solid and old and will not be affected by any political storms or sudden turns in the present alliances in Iraq.

"Asharq al-Awsat" learned that a former adviser to Chalabi who had fled to Iran after US military intelligence in Iraq accused him of providing the Iranian Revolutionary Guards with secret information about the US military and security presence in Iraq and Iraqi officials' relations with former US Governor Paul Bremer played an important role in arranging Chalabi's visit to Tehran and his meeting with the officials there, foremost of them the Iranian president, the foreign minister, and senior officials in Khomeini's office, Iranian intelligence, and the IRG.
Posted by:Fred

#9  but then I'm a conservative who re-registered as a Democrat because there's too damned many Republicans in my part of the state.


You will be back, no worries.
Posted by: Besoeker   2005-11-09 12:10  

#8  To be honest? I'd probably vote for the Kurd slate, but then I'm a conservative who re-registered as a Democrat because there's too damned many Republicans in my part of the state.

Allawi is probably the better of the two secular Shia, if only because Chalabi is such a archery butt that I can't make heads or tails of who he actually is, as opposed to who the Jordanians, the CIA, the State Department, and the Iranians say he is.
Posted by: Mitch H.   2005-11-09 12:06  

#7  If I wuz an Iraqi voter, I suppose Id lean to Allawi (there are some smaller coalition parties that are much better according to some Iraqi bloggers i like, but theyre not likely to win nationwide) But I dont know id rule out Chalabi, and I certainly wouldnt expect that a Chalabi win means Iranian rule.
Posted by: liberalhawk   2005-11-09 11:04  

#6  Interesting, but just for the hellofit, since neither of you actually said it, who would you want to win the next election?

Doesn't Allawi represent the guy with the fewest strings attached and the biggest stones for follow-thru?

Just curious.
Posted by: Regnad Kcin   2005-11-09 10:28  

#5  Given that:

1) Asharq al-Awsat is a [Sunni] Arabic paper published out of Britain, and thus not exactly in the Shia mainstream

2) The Shia political alliance which Chalabi just left was otherwise composed of the Sadrists (the forthright velayat-e-faqih party, backed by a radical faction out of Qom) SCIRI (the once-upon-a-time-but-not-now-really religious-rule people, directly backed by the more mainstream government elements in Teheran) and al-Dawa, (milquetoast sort-of-supported-by-Iran Islamic party with delusions of Walter Mittyism). Chalabi just *left* the Iranian-backed coalition.

3) The Iranians have made a practice of leaking all sorts of embarrassing bullshit about their dealings with Chalabi at inopportune times. If he’s a member of the Iranian family, it’s as the red-headed stepchild, because they certainly beat him often enough.

Anyways, if Chalabi & the Iranians were trying to set up an Iranian-dominated Iraqi government, they're going about it in a damned peculiar fashion by splitting their ticket just before the elections, with both fractions making faces at each other in the local media.

Almost certainly, this is Allawi's people trying to take the wind out of the sails of a prospective secularist rival. After all, Allawi's Iraqi National Accord was based in London before the war - what's the chances that your average writer with the foremost Arabic paper in England would have INA contacts?
Posted by: Mitch H.   2005-11-09 10:17  

#4  Interesting, but take with a grain of salt. Its an arab paper, quoting unnamed sources in Iran. It suggest what to me strains credulity - that hard line elements in Iran have given up on SCIRI and Muqty. And the takeaway from this is so overwhelming - Allawi, hes really the only hope, hes going from strength to strength, hes the one the US can trust, hes the one Sistani wants - well it gets a big hit on my planted story meter - the Allawi people, or some of Allawis many friends could be behind this story.

I mean if you like unsourced stories, that give you the inside scoop, but have suspiciously slanted agendas, you can pick up the Washington Post. :)
Posted by: Liberalhawk   2005-11-09 10:00  

#3  I'd say you have a point, a very good point indeed, Mr Yee, if we weren't talking about the Mad & Crazy Mullahs. If you think about it, they have been as clear as glass for years - the only surprise being that they had been smart to keep their nuclear program under wraps for so long. When it came out they seemed to lose it entirely. I doubt they've suddenly become clever. Besides, I don't like this prick either, LOL.
Posted by: Omolurong Spomble5401   2005-11-09 05:47  

#2  .com, beware of preplanned disinformation campaigns...
Posted by: Edward Yee   2005-11-09 03:08  

#1  And, in parallel with a previous comment thanking the Black Hats for identifying those on their enemies list, I thank them for telling us who they favor. I love transparency in foreign relations, lol. Hell, in all aspects of government. The UN should give it a try, lol.

So, Chalabi, I hope we work like hell to bring you down, ya prick.
Posted by: .com   2005-11-09 00:34  

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