#2 "Could be they're starting to run out of Fallujahs. And every time they move on to the next Fallujah the locals are going to be that much less happy to see them. But given the evident reasoning deficiencies of the average tribal Iraqi, this could take a while..."
A little late-night exposition... 2.5 years on, still missing one of the keys to the game, IMHO.
One of the things that I and others, notably Verlaine who has the best grasp of it, IMHO, have posted on numerous times is that it seems we're still not going directly at the tribal leaders whose actions are, shall we say, unfriendly. And I mean directly at them, in particular. Until they are enlisted to resist the asshats (providing us intel, at least, if compelled to cooperate by the asshats) or made to feel the pain for active collaboration, the game goes on.
We do hear about tea time, now and then, but not about knocking heads. When tea won't cut it, then you have to roll out the other measures.
Once upon a time I would've said this applies mainly to the Sunnis, but the botch in Southern Iraq and the obvious reversion to the customary Arab style of rule, i.e. corrupt tribal control with them allying with groups such as the militias, proves the Shi'a have reverted to form, as well. In fact, the Basra situation is what we can expect overall throughout the Arab regions if we do not use force to demonstrate, daily at every point, that we will not accept nor allow the customary corrupt Arab despotism and nepotism to dominate the new Iraq. It can't and won't be eliminated, but it can be forced to be expressed primarily through the democratic process.
Everyone in any given area knows who runs the show - and it's not the Zarqi Boyz or al Douri - it's the tribal leaders - and it's my humble opinion that Mafia dons are the closest parallel in our common experience. You come into an area with a force with the intent to stay, you have to suborn the tribal leader(s) there. The regular Iraqis generally do what their family, clan, tribe, imam, sect tell them to do, more or less in that order.
The level, the granularity, at which you find the resistance to authority as we try to foster a democratic state, depends upon who you are. As Americans, we fall completely outside their customary "chain of command" and it's easy for the Iraqis to dismiss our almost incomprehensible (to many of them) motives and oppose us as occupiers.
When it's an Iraqi trooper, then he will meet opposition at the Islamic Sect (Sunni or Shi'a) or tribal level. This is unavoidable until the Iraqis work past the allegiance chain. The only overrides are brute force -- OR...
The biggest dog, the linchpin regards stability as well as (or because of) the power to hand out job$ and deal$ and goodie$, in that chain is the tribal Sheikh. Co-opt this bastard, put the tribal Sheikh in your corner, whatever that takes. Of course putting his people in security / authority positions is stupid - they will simply revert to the Mafia games they've always played, corrupting the process, playing competing interests off against each other, etc. You have to own him, and that means make him deal with people, weilding the authority of force, who do not owe him any allegiance. It will require some tough love. Probably very tough love.
I believe the key is to break the chain and focus Iraqis on the state. Yes, they will still be Arabs and will expect, Dhimmidonk-style, (Rhetorical: Is there any significant difference between the political machines in Big Blue Cities and Arab tribalism? Nope.), instant gratification and below the table BS. Such is human nature in people not taught differently, indoctrinated, lol, with more honest values. But I think we have long needed to break some heads to achieve even that in confrontations with Arabs - and I hear nothing of the sort in news reports, just brute (Will Jihadi come out and play?) force and, now, garrisoning cleared areas, to achieve the end goal. Not enough targeted force. Too much slack for the Sheikhs. I can hear them laughing up their sleeves and planning what they think they'll do when the force leaves or how they'll corrupt the garrison heads.
The first pass outcome in Iraq will be an "illiberal democracy", of course, because of the allegiances mentioned above. It can grow into a liberal democracy when the state is finally viewed as the main source of stability and prosperity and rights, not the Sheikh. We should be working to that specific end.
Heavy sigh. Still my take, this far on.
The Kurds get it - they got it long ago. |
Scores of terrified Iraqis fled a besieged town Sunday, waving white flags and hauling their belongings to escape a second day of fighting between U.S. Marines and al-Qaida-led militants along the Syrian border. U.S. and Iraqi troops battled insurgents house-to-house, the U.S. military said. The U.S. commander of the joint force, Col. Stephen W. Davis, told The Associated Press late Sunday that his troops had moved "about halfway" through Husaybah, a market town along the Euphrates River about 200 miles northwest of Baghdad. At least 36 insurgents have been killed since the assault began Saturday and about 200 men have been detained, Davis said. He did not give a breakdown of nationalities of the detainees. Many were expected to be from a pro-insurgent Iraqi tribe. Davis would not comment on U.S. and Iraqi government casualties but said the militants were putting up a tough fight because "this area is near and dear to the the insurgents, particularly the foreign fighters."