If Iran develops nuclear weapons it could spark a regional arms race because Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt would consider getting atomic bombs, a leading think tank said on Tuesday. John Chipman, director of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, told a news conference it was unlikely that diplomatic pressure from the European Union would stop Iran developing its nuclear enrichment program. He said if Iran ended up with a confirmed, deployed nuclear capability, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia would "reconsider their positions." The United States and European Union are trying to persuade the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to refer Iran to the United Nations for possible sanctions. The IISS said in its annual handbook on global military might, "The Military Balance," that it was unlikely the EU diplomacy would yield results. However, Chipman said a nuclear Iran was still a long way off so there was time to focus on diplomatic activity. "It would be desirable for regional states, especially the Gulf Arab states, also to express more openly their known concerns about how Iran's possible acquisition of a nuclear capacity would change strategic perceptions and the regional balance of power," said Chipman.
Iran's referral to the Council is being opposed by Russia, China and India amid fears it could begin "a slippery slide down the road to war," said Chipman. But he said that could change if IAEA director general Mohammad al-Baradei can present evidence on the development of Iran's Shahab-3 missile, which has "a payload ideally suited to a nuclear weapon."