Dubai, 25 Oct. (AKI) - One year since the broadcast of Osama bin Laden's last video message, in which he addressed the American people shortly before their presidential elections, the al-Qaeda leader's absence has raised questions over his fate. In December an audio message appeared, attributed to the Saudi terrorist leader, in which he talked about the attack on the US consulate in Jeddah ten days earlier, but since October 2004, all other video messages have featured bin Laden's deputy, Egyptian doctor Ayman al-Zawahiri. Bin Laden's absence has increased the doubts of anti-terrorism experts over the possible fate of the founder of al-Qaeda. According to the latest theory, put forward recently by the Indian media, bin Laden was killed in the devastating earthquake that struck Pakistan-administered Kashmir on 8 October, after seeking refuge in that area at the beginning of the month to avoid the military offensive in Waziristan.
However, this version has been denied by Kamal Habib, a former leader of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad group. During an interview with Dubai-based Al-Arabiya television, he claimed the Saudi terror leader's absence is part of a strategy, in which only al-Zawahiri appears for security reasons.
Abdel Rahim Ali, an Arab journalist and expert on Islamic movements, also rules out the death of bin Laden. "If that had happened, certainly al-Qaeda would have released the news by making an official announcement," he explains. Instead, Ali believes it is very likely that the founder of the terror organisation is seriously ill and is unable to receive the medical treatment he needs in the tribal areas where he is currently believed to be hiding.
The third and final hypothesis being considered by anti-terrorism experts is that bin Laden has fled, abandoning Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to receive medical treatment in a neighbouring country. It is thought that bin Laden may have left Afghanistan with the help of various Islamic cells spread throughout Central Asia.
All these theories suggest that al-Zawahiri has now effectively become the leader of al-Qaeda on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the Jordanian militant and leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been given the task of exporting the Jihad, or holy war, to the Middle East and Europe, as many intelligence reports claim, as well as intercepted correspondence between the two terror leaders.