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Afghanistan-Pak-India
Earthquake: Terror meets terror in PoK
2005-10-11
NEW DELHI: Did Saturday's earthquake inflict collateral damage on Pakistan's infamous terrorist training camps? What impact will it have on PoK-based jehad in India? Intelligence and security analysts in IB, RAW and other agencies pored over this very possibility on Sunday with the latest intelligence inputs in the aftermath of the natural disaster.

This was after reports that the worst-hit were districts and villages with known terror camps in PoK. It was intensified after news reports quoted a Lashkar-e-Taiba spokesman as saying, "Many of our members have been killed. They are in scores, while several others are still trapped under the rubble."

But the cold assessment that emerged was clear: the earthquake will have no discernible impact on Pak-sponsored jehad in India. Home secretary V K Duggal refused to commit himself to any overt statement on Monday.

There are some reports of camps in areas like Kotli, Bagh, Nikial and Muzaffarabad in PoK being hit by the quake but since most of the jehadi training camps are makeshift ‘mobile' structures that can be translocated very quickly to evade scrutiny, it would not amount to much tangible loss.

"The camps have temporary structures to house jehadis. The training facilities are also rudimentary in the sense that the firing range for practice could be in a jungle nearby," said an official.

Sure, some of the terrorist cadres would have been killed or injured, but Indian officials say this is akin to losing them in unsuccessful infiltration bids or even in encounters with the Indian Army. "They are basically cannon fodder," say officials, "The real leaders of the movement continue to flourish in Islamabad and Lahore, not in forward camps in PoK."

Moreover, as reported earlier by TOI, the dossier prepared by Indian intelligence and security agencies clearly shows the over 50 training camps operating across the border are not limited just to PoK but are spread all over Pakistan.

For instance, while 29 such camps are located in PoK, 15 or more are present in the North West Frontier Province. Another seven are in Punjab, three in the Northern Areas of Gilgit-Baltistan, and one in Sindh.

One major location of the Jehadi factory hit by the quake is, of course, the densely-forested Manshera region in NWFP. A hotbed for jehadis, it houses several madrassas, which also double up as training camps. "But that again will not impact the terror tap," said an official.

In 1998, the US cruise missile strikes in Khost, Afghanistan, wiped out a number of Harkat-ul-Mujahideen cadres training there. But this had no effect on the organisation or its activities.

According to terrorism analyst Ajai Sahni, the December 26 tsunami washed away more than 2,000 known LTTE cadres from Sri Lanka. But even that has not diminished the Tamil Tigers.

Indian officials are now also concerned about the diversion of the flood of international aid to Pakistan in the aftermath of the earthquake. After 9/11, a series of international finance laws by the UN and US had effectively shut off the funding tap from Islamic charities, which were being used to fund jehad by outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.

The earthquake opens Pakistan to funds from all manner of organisations in the world, and Indian officials fear that some of these may be diverted to oil the jehadi wheels again.

Besides, they say, despite a ceasefire call from Syed Salahuddin of the United Jihad Council, militants mounted a big infiltration bid on Sunday night trying to take advantage of the post-quake chaos.

However, it is equally true that for the immediate future Lashkar or Jaish cadres might occupy themselves recouping their strengths or rebuilding their camps.
Posted by:DanNY

#3  It will make it more difficult for the Paki "government" to sponsor terrorism.
Posted by: gromgoru   2005-10-11 14:20  

#2  Was wondering that myself 3dc.

Hopefully not well at all...
Posted by: DanNY   2005-10-11 01:04  

#1  How well did the Pak nuke sites weather the quake?
Posted by: 3dc   2005-10-11 00:49  

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