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| China-Japan-Koreas | |
| China, Japan and Their Naval War | |
| 2005-09-12 | |
| September 12, 2005: Recently, a Chinese surface group was detected by a Japanese P-3C in disputed waters near the Senkaku Islands. The group, which consisted of a Sovremenny-class destroyer, two Jianghu I-class missile frigates, a replenishment ship, and a missile observation support ship, was a reasonably powerful force. It does lead to the question: Who would prevail in a fight with Japan over the Senkaku Islands? Such a battle would primarily involve the navies of both sides. Each operates on a different premise. Japan has a force of destroyers that are highly capable in anti-surface and anti-submarine operations. Japan’s guided missile destroyers are also highly capable anti-air vessels. Japan has a total of 30 destroyers, nine guided-missile destroyers, and nine frigates. At least two of the older Tachikaze-class guided-missile destroyers will be replaced by the new Atago-class destroyers. Japan also has 16 modern diesel-electric submarines. The Chinese navy is larger in numbers – carrying 25 destroyers and 45 frigates. However, of these 25 destroyers, 16 are the obsolete Luda class. The same is true for the Chinese frigates – two-thirds of them are the obsolete Jianghu-class ships. These are equipped with antiquated HY-2 missiles, which are copies of the old SS-N-2 Styx – state of the art for 1960. These days, a Styx is an easy kill for any modern surface-to-air missile. China has 65 diesel-electric submarines, but 52 of them are obsolete Romeo and Ming-class submarines. China’s Han-class SSNs are also old and noisy. Again, in terms of modern vessels, China is outnumbered. Another factor is air cover. The disputed waters are within 300 kilometers of Okinawa. This is easily within the combat radius of the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force’s F-1, F-4EJ Kai, F-15J, and F-2 fighters. Japan has a major air base in Naha, and there is also Kadena Air Force Base, where the United States Air Force keeps a wing of F-15s. The oldest aircraft in service with Japan are the F-4EJ Kais and F-1s – the latter are being replaced by the F-2. China’s fighters tend to be very old. The only real modern fighters are the J-11 (Russian Su-27) and the Su-30MKK (an Su-27 variant). Japan is almost at parity in terms of numbers (187 F-15J/DJs and 140 F-2s to 380 J-11/Su-30MKK in Chinese service). Japan has superb pilots as well, who get plenty of training. Chinese pilots get less flying time, although they are increasing their training. Japan also has E-2 and E-767 airborne early warning aircraft that they have years of practice using, while China has only recently acquired Russian A-50 Mainstays. In a straight naval-air fight over the Senkaku Islands, Japan has an advantage, even if they are on their own. While China is modernizing, Japan is not standing still, modernizing its military and keeping a qualitative edge over its larger neighbor.
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| Posted by:Steve |
| #16 sounds like the mighty Chinese military is a bag of shit.... a big bag, but still... |
| Posted by: Frank G 2005-09-12 21:55 |
| #15 sounds like the mighty Chinese military is a bag of shit.... a big bag, but still... |
| Posted by: Frank G 2005-09-12 21:55 |
| #14 The JSDF air force and naval ships are more than capable of defeating China's PLAN and PLAAF. China's true ace is her resort to threats of rapid nuclear escalation ags Japanese mil targets and cities. Many Japanese remain highly sensitive over the 1945 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - Japanese failure to protect their rights will only demons to China that Japan is weak and frightened of nuke war, and willing to make concessions to avoid nuclear confrontation. China's hegemonic ambitions calls for domination of East Asia and the PacRim, NOT co-existence with other "sovereign" states. COmmunism is ultim about UNILATERAL AND UNCONDITIONAL POWER, NOT POWER-SHARING OR DEMOCRACY!? Sino-Nippon events like these will determine whether Japan stays sovereign or becomes a contemp Asian version of a Cold War Warsaw Pact SOviet slave nation. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2005-09-12 21:43 |
| #13 Not only intel, I see C-17s flying in with all sorta AIMs, Patriot reloads, Harpoons reloads and maybe a few more Mark 48s, sorta a NickelGrass writ large. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2005-09-12 20:46 |
| #12 US would certainly cover Japans back militarily and supply intel. Nobody gonna do that for the Chinese. |
| Posted by: BrerRabbit 2005-09-12 17:13 |
| #11 #10, More than likely, I think we'd probably help the Japanese this time. Depending on what kind of conflict, we could probably just turn the tide with electronic surveillance and information support. Throw in US naval direct action and it would probably fare MUCH, much better in our favor. Besides, isn't there some sort of Military treaty between the US, SKor and Japan? |
| Posted by: Anon4021 2005-09-12 16:05 |
| #10 Well, Japan did kick China's ass once before. If they have the sense to stay far, far away from Pearl Harbor this time, they just might win. |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2005-09-12 15:58 |
| #9 An important factor is "where will the battle take place?" The first assumption would be the islands themselves, but while this may be the goal, it may not be the optimal strategy for either side. From that axiom, you have to ask: what is the strategic reach of the opponents? Modern naval deep water ships cannot operate without special ports. An attack on a port can cripple a fleet in the right circumstances, as was demonstrated with the Riga disaster and the Russian North Sea Fleet. Conversely, a domestic disaster, natural or man-made, can force a short term change in national prerogatives, giving the other side a chance to peacefully occupy the islands and set up serious defenses. A massive earthquake in Japan, for example. Would the battle stop at the islands, or would it extend far beyond them, perhaps far beyond what either side would have originally wanted to go? |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-09-12 14:13 |
| #8 Bah! None of you are considering the most important factor: The Japanese military has developed special equipment and extensive experience fighting GIANT MONSTERS such as Godzilla, Rodan, Mothra, and Giddora. The Chinese navy would never stand a chance against the power of Mecha Godzilla after he wades into their formation and crushes their destroyers and frigates. |
| Posted by: Leigh 2005-09-12 14:05 |
| #7 Basil H Penguin, Visonary. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2005-09-12 13:58 |
| #6 As the two hundreth anniversery of Trafalgar approaches, I would say that the navy with the most active sea time would win. How does the optempo for the Chinese navy compare to the Japanese? That is a primary question. Needless to say, even though China has nuclear weapons, Japan has Mothra, so there is balance there. |
| Posted by: Penguin 2005-09-12 13:36 |
| #5 Both surface Navys would be doomed in this contest. Neither side has the ability to protect them from determined air and missile attack. Speculation should focus on what happens after all the ships are sunk. |
| Posted by: DoDo 2005-09-12 12:16 |
| #4 Banzai! |
| Posted by: Admiral Yamamoto 2005-09-12 11:14 |
| #3 Let's play. |
| Posted by: Togo 2005-09-12 10:01 |
| #2 I would bet on Japan, simply because the waters are closer and under Japanese air cover and Japan has some really high-tech air and surface forces and they are extreamly well trained. China is behind Japan in all the above catagories, and while there is a quality to quantity, with today's super accurate firepower that old military maxim is becoming less and less true. |
| Posted by: mmurray821 2005-09-12 09:29 |
| #1 Another factor is air cover. The disputed waters are within 300 kilometers of Okinawa. This is easily within the combat radius of the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force’s F-1, F-4EJ Kai, F-15J, and F-2 fighters. And always bet on the home team. |
| Posted by: Raj 2005-09-12 09:26 |