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Afghanistan/South Asia
Musharraf losing control of military, ISI?
2005-09-12
Though Pakistan and US appear to be in sync over the hunt for Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders, lack of cooperation at the operational and tactical levels by the Pakistani army and intelligence is proving a major stumbling block. In fact, Indian and US intelligence and investigation agencies increasingly believe General Pervez Musharraf is no longer in absolute command of his army and the all-powerful ISI.

The recent bulldozing of all tender norms by his chief of general staff, Lt-Gen Tariq Majeed — who is next in command after Musharraf ’s vice-chief Gen Ahsan Saleem Hayat and is due to retire in December 2007 — is a case in point. In June 2005, Majeed ordered 900 sub-standard G-2 night-vision devices fitted with thermal image sights for the army’s main battle tanks from French firm Thales. These were overpriced by an extra $37 million and flouted all technical qualifications. When Majeed’s attempts to procure the night-vision devices were foiled at the last moment, mainly due to fierce opposition from his juniors, he ordered the immediate procurement of five LUNA unmanned spy planes from German company EMT at a price exceeding $27 million. The order, placed late last month, came despite objections in Islamabad’s military intelligence circles over their inadequate electronic counter-measures.

All this took place without Musharraf ’s knowledge, demonstrating his lack of control over his immediate juniors and the decision-makers in the Pakistan army. CIA director Porter Goss, who believes Laden is still in Pakistan, has recently gone on record as saying certain “weak links” — namely Pakistan — need to be strengthened if the manhunt for the al-Qaeda leader has to culminate in his capture. His comments are echoed by US intelligence and defence officials now active in Pakistan.

Highly-placed sources say while some key al-Qaeda operatives have been picked up by the Pakistani security agencies, its top Arab leaders are still at large. Those arrested included Abu Zubaydah, Ramzi bin-al-Shibh, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Naeem Noor Khan, Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani and Abu Farj-al-Libi. The question being raised in informed circles is how some top Arab al-Qaeda leaders are still evading arrest despite the scale of the manhunt. This, they say, is not possible unless they are being provided protection by a powerful section in the security and intelligence agencies.
Posted by:Dan Darling

#7  We're used to the idea that dictators command the absolute obedience of their subordinates. The reality is that divine right of kings aside, most dictators are always horse-trading with their direct reports. Mao did away with many of his rivals before they could depose him - but they were genuine threats to his rule. Stalin was the same way - but he did to them before they could do to him. This was why Saddam was always offing his subordinates - Saddam was also a subordinate once, before he took power by knocking off his betters. Mao and Stalin had Marxism and Saddam had Baathism as ruling ideologies to unify their followers.

Musharraf's rule is purely based on his being in the right place at the right time. His rule is more like that of the Roman emperors - a delicate balancing act between contending factions - note how even a gifted politician and military man like Julius Caeser was assassinated. He will be lucky to die a natural death.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2005-09-12 18:12  

#6  Musharraf is the world possible leader of Pakistan, ..... until you consider the alternatives.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-09-12 17:41  

#5  Propping up the Dick-Tator.
Dollars and Support : another thought...

Musharraf continues to play the West. He does it by playing the 'Dutch boy'.

He really is in control of the ISI and it's assets, but by using well crafted leaks convinces the West he's our man in Paki-Waki-Land holding back Holy Hordes™ [ISI proxy assets]with his stinkin little finger.
Posted by: Red Dog   2005-09-12 12:53  

#4  I agree, it's like saying Michael Moore is going to get back in shape.
Posted by: DepotGuy   2005-09-12 09:53  

#3  I second that Gromky. The ISI has always played its own game and since Binny is its creation, they protect him.
Posted by: Spot   2005-09-12 08:08  

#2  "Losing control"? That would imply that he ever had control in the first place.
Posted by: gromky   2005-09-12 06:47  

#1  Mushy left for New York this week. We'll soon see if anything is afoot. I don't think he would have left the country if he didn't have at least some confidence in his own level of control.
Posted by: Abd Al-Sabour Shahin   2005-09-12 04:46  

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