Every summer they move their court from the capital to Jeddah. But this time they had to delay for several weeks because of Fahdâs sickness and death. The king finally died early on Monday in a Riyadh hospital at the age of 84. Now that the funeral is over, hundreds of princes, princesses and courtiers in flowing ankle-length robes, embroidered cloaks and traditional Arab headdresses are due to arrive imminently in the port city. With its 20 miles of air-conditioned shopping malls and gleaming glass office buildings, Jeddah has the skyline and commercial trappings of a modern American city. The royals like it, and some of them will now be staying for several months, enjoying a life of spectacular opulence amid the silk couches and gilded rooms of their marble-lined palaces. Those who do not have palaces will be in the luxury hotels that line the coast. Not only will the royal family be glad to escape Riyadhâs searing heat for Jeddahâs more congenial climate. They will be breathing a collective sigh of relief that the passing of Fahd, a critical moment in Saudi history, has gone off without a hitch. | And now the plotting begins in ernest |
Stability is vital. This is why presidents, prime ministers, emirs and royals jetted into Riyadh last week to express condolences for Fahdâs passing and good wishes to the new king. Prominent among them were Tony Blair and the Prince of Wales. The show of solidarity among the Saudi royal princes was impressive and intended to demonstrate that all was well in the kingdom. But many experts believe the house of Saud is at a crossroads where it has to reform or die. Power is inherited and the royal family hold all the top government posts and a huge share of the nationâs wealth. The constitution says the crown must pass to the sons of King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud, who founded the Saudi state in 1932, or to their sons. There are at least 5,000 princes and the extended royal family probably numbers many times that. It is estimated it could reach 60,000 in a generation, all living on royal stipends of thousands of dollars a month, which could ultimately break the treasury.
The nominated successor to Abdullah is Prince Sultan, the defence minister. But at 80 he is almost as old as Abdullah and has been ill with cancer. He may not even outlive his half-brother, the king. His lavish spending is notorious even by the profligacy of the Sauds and is so widely known that it is unclear how acceptable he would be to the wider public. His palace is so large, for example, that it has its own fire brigade. âThe succession has been smooth so far, but the future looks rough,â said Simon Henderson, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. âAbdullah has yet to reallocate jobs and we could be looking at two short reigns.â
What happens then is the huge unknown. After Abdullah and Sultan, the next direct descendant of Abdul Aziz is Prince Nayef, the interior minister. But he is a hardline conservative who is unpopular and lacks the common touch. The idea of the throne passing to him is anathema to reformers, and a lack of agreement within the court must explain why Abdullah has failed to name him the crown prince-designate as he should according to custom. Western diplomats do not believe Abdullah intends to fill the post. Nayef is close to the conservative religious establishment who favour quasi-religious rule. He turned down the idea of women voting in recent elections, says there is no cause to discuss any need for women to drive and initially said that the September 11 terrorist attacks on America in 2001 were a Zionist conspiracy.
The betting is that Nayef will be skipped over in favour of Prince Salman. In his late sixties, Salman wields enormous power as the governor of Riyadh. He is highly sophisticated and talks of reform, but also assiduously cultivates the religious establishment. It would then be up to Salman to decide whether the next generation of western-educated princes should succeed. âThat is when it gets interesting,â said a western diplomat. âThere is no obvious logic or justification for deciding who is next.â
Salman has three credible sons, one an astronaut, the first Arab in space. A family feud seems inevitable. Prince Talal, a son of Abdul Aziz, called such a quarrel the âbiggest dangerâ to the royal family.
| Arab family feuds involve weapons. Royal arab family feuds involve crew served weapons. |
A more immediate worry for Abdullah is how to reform and modernise without antagonising the religious establishment.
| Ain't gonna happen. |
Two contrasting faces of the kingdom were visible in Riyadh last week. In Chop-Chop Square, as the plaza where public beheadings are carried out is known, people declared allegiance to Abdullah and condemned any changes that eroded the traditions of Islam. Downtown, however, in Starbucks â which is partitioned into sections for men and for women â a young man was calling for quicker social change and speaking of a need for job creation and education, albeit with continuity. âWe donât want these harbingers of hate, terrorism, intolerance and obscurantism to flourish here,â he said. âThe root to stopping them is education.â
The country is facing a demographic timebomb. With 70% of its population under 21, incomes falling and a soaring birth rate, Saudi society is like a runaway train heading for a crash. With the price of oil shooting to $60 a barrel, Abdullah now has the money to keep it running on the rails, provided he does not waste it. Over the years the monarchies of Egypt, Iran, Iraq and Yemen have all been swept away. But in Saudi Arabia in the past week 3m people have pledged their allegiance to Abdullah. The kingâs supporters see it as a referendum from which the monarchy has emerged with its authority enhanced. The era of royal unaccountability and unlimited wealth seems destined to continue. But after Fahdâs death, no one really knows how much longer the old order can be sustained. At best, Abdullah and Sultan can be expected to reign for 10 years. Then comes the moment of truth.