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| Southeast Asia |
| UK attacks mirror Bali |
| 2005-07-09 |
| When in October 2002 a coordinated suicide attack by al-Qaeda-linked terrorists on two Bali nightclubs killed 202 people, it was widely seen to open a new south-east Asian front in the war against terrorism. Almost three years later that front remains an active one with the US, and others continuing to warn of potential attacks against western targets and police still rounding up suspected members of Jemaah Islamiyah, the al-Qaeda-linked group responsible for the Bali attack. If the battle is ongoing, though, experts argue there are also signs that authorities are winning it. Sidney Jones, the International Crisis Group analyst widely considered to be the best-informed expert on Indonesian extremists, argued in a Singapore meeting this week that the group was in disarray and riven by factionalism. As a result, she said, âthe terrorist threat (in Indonesia) is probably declining.â The weakening of what was once considered one of al-Qaeda's leading affiliates points to how effective the US-led global war on terrorism has been at times. Yet the Indonesian experience also highlights how the threat from al-Qaeda, its affiliates, and other like-minded groups is evolving and how it is likely to be increasingly difficult to combat. In the wake of Indonesia's crackdown, experts argue, the threat comes from extremists who are more likely to be members of small groups inspired by al-Qaeda rather than formally affiliated with the network or who have been newly recruited by JI veterans on the run. A regional crackdown that has seen the arrest of Afghan-trained JI leaders such as Hambali, the Indonesian once thought to be the only non-Arab in al-Qaeda's top-most leadership, has resulted in a severing of the human link to al-Qaeda, according to Ms Jones. Combined with growing opposition from some within JI to terror tactics as a way to pursue the goal of establishing a south-east Asian Islamic caliphate, that crackdown has led to the dismantling of command structures and turned one-time strategists into full-time fugitives. But that has not necessarily eliminated the long-term security risk. JI members have begun freelancing and recruiting other extremists to carry out bombings such as last September's attack on the Australian embassy in Jakarta. Ms Jones also says there are likely to be JI links to two recent Indonesian attacks - a May 28 bombing on Sulawesi island that killed 21 people and a May 16 assault on a police post on another island. And, says Greg Fealy, an expert on Indonesian extremists at the Australian National University: âJI people and estranged JI people are still convinced that bombings are the way to go.â Until such attitudes change, authorities around the world will have to continue to deal with attacks like this week's London bombings, however strong the experts believe al-Qaeda may or may not be. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #1 i don't get the new argument--so we shouldn't take out their command and contol because they will decentralize and be more hidden and effective--what should we do--give them an oscar |
| Posted by: SON OF TOLUI 2005-07-09 14:20 |