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Europe

The European Crisis

2005-05-25

A freebie from Stratfor(Tm) - well, I can't afford the paying ones... plus, I've got RB... -, about the ramifications of the TCE vote in France, with some good points, at least from a non-european perspective; no link since it came by mail.

France will vote on the new draft European constitution May 29. All 25 EU members must ratify the constitution if it is to take effect. The odds of that happening are pretty slim under any circumstances. However, at the moment it appears that the referendum in France might fail. Whether it actually does is less significant than the fact that France is the engine
behind European unification -- and if ratification of the constitution in France is in doubt, it is difficult to imagine how it could possibly pass in many other European countries.

Posted by:Anonymous5089

#3 It's going to take some country withdrawing entirely from EU before it can be hurt.
!

Posted by: Shipman 2005-05-25 19:45

#2 I am far less optimistic on the demise of the EU if a couple of countries refuse to ratify the CONstitution. There is a tremendous bureaucracy in place that will not fade away. In fact,it has been issuing Directives on the assumption the CONstitution will eventually be ratified. They will continue to do so whether or not it is ratified.
Second,the idea that France or Britain or the Netherlands rejected the EU will be rejected by the EU Elites almost immediately. Already we see the excuses being readied-it's not the CONstitution,it's a vote on unpopular leaders,it's fear of Muslims,the voters don't understand the benefits of the EU(ie,they're stupid!). There will be some summit that will tidy up "unclear language" and then the NO countries will be given another chance to vote the right way. Quite probably,there will not be another referendum in France,the Govt. will simply approve it.
The EU is the living dead-it cannot be killed by mere NO votes. It's going to take some country withdrawing entirely from EU before it can be hurt.

Posted by: Stephen 2005-05-25 17:15

#1 Immigration appears threatening on two levels: Economically, it increases competition for jobs; This is the conventional wisdom about immigration. However, it is not true about Europe. Historically, immigrants left home for better economic prospects and were prepared to work hard to get ahead. All the data I have seen bears this out and workforce participation rates are much higher amoungst immigrants than native populations. Which makes Europe a glaring exception. Immigrants come not to work, but to collect welfare benefits. The name of the game is to get as many dependants as possible to maximize your welfare take. Any work tha tis done is in the black economy. While governments are starting to recognize the problem, its hard to see how they can stop the trend short of kicking out the immigrants or cutting the welfare system.

Posted by: phil_b 2005-05-25 16:54

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