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On first impressions it would appear that China's South Sea Fleet at Zhanjiang, with major bases at Yulin, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong,could easily dominate the whole Spratly archipelago. The nearest are just 70km north of Hong Kong and Chinese forces are camped on seven of the disputed reefs. Nonetheless, while the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) looks quite formidable on paper, its actual capabilities are another matter. The modernisation of its surface combatant fleet has been slow and it has done little to enhance its amphibious warfare forces or perhaps, just as importantly, its mine counter-measure capability.
Similarly, although the Spratlys are only a two day boat trip from Vietnam, its Navy and Coast Guard remain small and under funded. Taiwan, in contrast, has, in recent years, procured a number of fairly new American and French frigates and destroyers, and Malaysia is also procuring a fleet of small frigates. The latter currently occupies three Spratly reefs. It is clear that tourists and 'bird-watching' towers are blatant attempts by Vietnam and Taiwan to reinforce their claims to the islands. Vietnam has made it clear that it intends to send more tourists to the islands, something that China is unlikely to take quietly. A war in the South China Sea would be disastrous for international trade, as 50 per cent of merchant tonnage and 30 per cent of crude oil shipments pass by the Spratlys. With ASEAN seeking to settle its members differences, a workable solution is unlikely to be forthcoming, which means at some stage a limited shooting match in the region is more than probable.
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