| Which side of his mouth did it come out of this time? |
By Rami G. Khouri
The question of Syria and its regional policies - on Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Palestine/Israel, terrorism, economic reform, weapons of mass destruction and others - has garnered considerably more attention among Middle East observers in the last six months than at any other time in recent years. Yet, observing, analyzing and understanding Syria and its policies is one of the more complex challenges of contemporary Middle Eastern politics, mainly because decision-making in Damascus takes place largely out of view of the public.
| That's pretty much a characteristic of dictatorships, isn't it? |
Consequently, there is much speculation about the intentions, motivations and plans of Syria's main players, and little certainty when it comes to future policies. This has been exacerbated by the intense international pressure on Damascus - formally through the UN Security Council, informally and bilaterally from the U.S., France and other Western powers - which seems to be spurring changes in Syrian policies. The withdrawal from Lebanon is the most immediate one, and others may follow.
| It'll be interesting to see what they are... |
In this paradoxical context of obvious changes taking place in Syria yet without much clarity about the direction of change or the line-up of the key domestic players, the thoughts of the special adviser to the Syrian president become particularly intriguing, especially when he speaks the language of change, transparency, reform, free markets and accountability.
| ... when these decisions are paradoxically being made in the Star Chamber. |
This language has been heard before in Damascus, but was not always pursued or implemented in a sustained manner.
| That's an indication of competing hardline and reformist elements. Keep an eye on the cemetaries to track who's winning this week... |
It is back, with more clarity and precision, perhaps driven by the gravity of the challenge facing the government. Presidential adviser Nibras al-Fadel spends much of his time working on issues of economic and administrative reform in Syria. When we sat down for a long chat in Doha, Qatar last weekend during a meeting focused on promoting Arab economic competitiveness, his language and style reflected his experience: bachelor's and master's degrees in engineering, public administration and technology and policy, from ENA and the Ecole Polytechnique in Paris and MIT in the U.S., and 20 years of consulting and management work in Europe and the U.S. "We are in a serious and dangerous context in the Middle East, and we should see the options before Syria as an opportunity. There is no change without discontinuity, and there is usually no discontinuity without an external factor. We learned this in physics class, and it applies to organizations, systems and countries alike," says Fadel.
| You've got your external factors: People are looking at you and they're evaluating your usefulness. On top of that, your populace — "the masses," in Baathspeak — is communicating with the outside world and being communicated with in turn. If you repeat a lie often enough, people will come to accept it as the truth, until it bumps up against empical observation, at which time it becomes fertilizer. |
"If we hope to ensure the well-being of Syria, especially its prosperity and stability, we have to achieve the elements needed for a sustainable competitive environment in today's world. Three in particular stand out. First is sound macro-economic management based on a free market regulated by a strong state, and integrated into the world economy where globalization is an opportunity and not a threat.
| If the "macroeconomic management" include five year plans, fiddling with wages and prices and the other typically socialist stuff then you're going to continue having problems. I suspect, though, that what he's saying is that they're trying to figure how to jigger the Chinese model of capitalism under an intrusive state to fit it into Syria... |
Second is good governance and democratic values, promoting human rights, dignity and freedom, and not pitting different religious, ethnic and other population groups against each other. The third is peace, which in our case is the relatively basic idea that some of our land is occupied and we want it back."
| That'd be the Golan Heights. Negotiations work better than making faces and running terrorist networks. But it hasn't been the Syrian way to consider the relative value of loaves: half versus none, for instance. |
He makes the point that achieving peace in the Middle East is not necessarily a prerequisite for reform.
| That's a blinding statement of the obvious that's been either denied or danced around for years... |
He also insists that "we should not make the mistake of going from one extreme to the other, suddenly ignoring the requirements of ending occupation, to speak only of reform."
But if you institute the reforms, the problem of the occupation might simply evaporate.
There's more at the link, if you're interested... |
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