"But you don't understand! It is my destiny to someday rule the world! However I will stay away from Bakersfield, America. It seems that there are monkeys who eat family jewels there. That is not good."
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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Chinese Prepare for Operations Against Korea |
| 2005-03-04 |
| March 4, 2005: China appears to be building up logistics for military operations along its border with North Korea. This can be seen by the pattern of logistical facilities and operations along the Chinese coast. China is no longer the closed, Stalinist police state is was a few decades ago. Tourists, especially Chinese tourists, are all over the place. You still can't wander onto a military base without permission. But you can drive by and notice what is going on. That's how this pattern of logistical activity was noted. Most of it, of course, is concentrated on the coastal area facing Taiwan. But many similar bases and military storage installations are concentrated up the coast, halfway between Taiwan and North Korea. China seems to be covering its bets, and preparing for the possible large scale use of troops along the North Korean border. This would most likely happen if there were a revolution in North Korea, or simply a total collapse of order in that country. North Korea has suffered a decade of famine and economic decline. For the last few years, an increasing number of desperate North Koreans have been sneaking across the border into China. But civil disorder in North Korea could send millions of Koreans headed for China. In the last year, China has dispatched thousands of additional troops to the border, to increase patrols and discourage illegal border crossers. There is nothing to indicate that the situation in North Korea will calm down. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #18 There's another possibility - China is warning Uncle Sam not to attack North Korea. The last time Chinese troops massed along the Yalu River, it was to attempt to push General Walton Walker's 8th Army off the Korean peninsula. China has its goals, we have ours. Don't assume that they overlap much. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2005-03-04 11:23:58 PM |
| #17 Its makes sense (from a western point of view) that the Chinese do not want trouble in the back yard while things are looking up for them economically. NK rattling nuclear sabers will push the Japanese and South Koreans into the nuclear arena - launching a nuclear arms race in the far east that China does not want. It does not make sense (from a western point of view) to invade Taiwan. Most of the logistics tail seems to be pointed toward Taiwan though. Why would China put itself into a strategic confrontation with the US? While we may be tied up tactically in the ME, the Navy and AF are rested and ready. Wargaming it from the Chinese point of view - they would need assistance from Iran (staging a demonstration in the Gulf - threatening our supply lines into Iraq and SA,KU oil) which could draw off a sizable portion of our strategic assets to protect our LOC. NK made a similar arrangement with Iran back in 1993/94. A study of Sun Tzu may be in order - the Chinese intentions are not clear at this time. |
| Posted by: JP 2005-03-04 10:58:46 PM |
| #16 It's still going on. |
| Posted by: Holly 2005-03-04 9:39:28 PM |
| #15 NK, like the old Warsaw Pact with the USSR, doesn't make a move without China's knowledge or consent, so any Chicom move to denuke NK would be a Potemkin-style "invasion" against itself. Something(s) else is goin on. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2005-03-04 9:34:53 PM |
| #14 Actually, there is another possiblity. How about straight annexation? Then internal movement controls could be instituted full force, while bringing the N. Koreans up to the living standard of the Chinese peasant, which is unimaginably better than they have now. |
| Posted by: Brian H 2005-03-04 8:45:07 PM |
| #13 I like the strategy RJ. Make a nice Finnish state. Makes good sense all around. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2005-03-04 7:35:43 PM |
| #12 My guess is that if China invades they would destroy the nuclear weapons program and install a puppet government that would prepare the road for unification over a decade or so. That way they become close friends with South Korea and the unified Korea is not armed with Nuclear weapons. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2005-03-04 5:01:27 PM |
| #11 Justrand, I can't think of a better weight loss program. |
| Posted by: Matt 2005-03-04 2:28:28 PM |
| #10 I don't think there would be a reunification if China invades. Read something recently that said China claims part of Korea was historically theirs. Maybe Pyongyang is the 3rd holiest spot in Maoism or something. |
| Posted by: BH 2005-03-04 2:26:10 PM |
| #9 Justrand - practice up by developing a taste for wheatgrass. Apparently the NK's are real health nuts |
| Posted by: Frank G 2005-03-04 12:47:27 PM |
| #8 You folks obviously haven't read yesterday's Los Angeles Times. If you HAD you would know that North Korea is a PARADISE! Their "objective" reporter's story was PAGE ONE, and included these "insights": "There is love...there is charity...People marry....They make children. People are just trying to live a normal life." You guys ALMOST had me convinced North Korea was a nasty place. Luckily the LA Times has cleared this all up for me, and now my family and I are looking forward to our vacation at Club Med Ponyang. |
| Posted by: Justrand 2005-03-04 12:39:17 PM |
| #7 Watching the performance of the South Koreans over the last decade does not lead me to believe that they have learned anything from the German experience, either good or bad. They'll fight for reunification for irrational reasons and handle it much differently. |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2005-03-04 12:14:17 PM |
| #6 Reunification of Germany cost so much because the Germans helped out all of Eastern Europe at the same time, and they gave very generous values to East German currency. There is no reason South Korea can't learn from that lesson. I also think it would be nearly impossible for South Korea to turn their back on a peaceful reunification despite the massive costs. Lastly that picture posted by BigEd is hysterical. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2005-03-04 12:00:15 PM |
| #5 The economic cost to South Korea of unification would be tremendous. Thus removing a compeditor to Chinese business. |
| Posted by: Steve 2005-03-04 11:44:16 AM |
| #4 Hey, they have such a bad slum lord now, I'd have no problem with giving the neighbor the title for free :-) But...then...I'm not Korean. Good comment moose. I was hoping they weren't just mobilizing to keep the refugees out. |
| Posted by: 2b 2005-03-04 11:35:49 AM |
| #3 Looks like the PRC is doing rubbish removal on that vacant lot behind thier back fence... "But you don't understand! It is my destiny to someday rule the world! However I will stay away from Bakersfield, America. It seems that there are monkeys who eat family jewels there. That is not good." |
| Posted by: BigEd 2005-03-04 11:34:10 AM |
| #2 The economic cost to South Korea of unification would be tremendous. I've argued in another forum that Germany's woes at this time are largely do to reunification. And East Germany wasn't serving grass for supper. I believe a Chinese move into the North would be in support of a coup, not reunification. Change the government and the attitude, and foreign aid becomes a possibility. |
| Posted by: Chuck Simmins 2005-03-04 11:33:11 AM |
| #1 This could also be a prelude to a Chinese de-nuclearization invasion of North Korea. Kim Jong-Il has defied Beijing several times of late, and I'm sure the thought has crossed their mind that either a new puppet regime is in order, or better yet, a unified Korea (under SK rule) indebted to China, a very friendly ally and trading partner, pumping billions of dollars into the Chinese economy every year. As long as they remained a free, separate country, I doubt the US would have any grave reservations to this. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-03-04 11:25:52 AM |