| I'll be very surprised if they don't... |
 As Parliament convenes Monday to discuss former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassination and most likely renews its confidence in the government, eyes are turned to Hizbullah, which has become the center of political polarization between the opposition and loyalists. For the first time since its participation in Parliament in 1992, Hizbullah is expected to vote for the government, this time for purely "Syrian" reasons that have nothing to do with the Cabinet itself.
| Both Syria and Lebanon are owned by Iran, two separate arrows in the same quiver. Of course they're going to vote the interests of their masters. |
The party, which over a decade has either abstained or voted against the successive governments, will make a different choice Monday, amid a political battle whose real slogan is not the continuation of Prime Minister Omar Karami's government, but the persistence of Syria's hegemony over the country. In such a battle, none of Syria's allies can afford any faux pas, which could be extremely costly for those who still bet on Damascus' influence here.
| I think it's too early in the process for them to be sure the Syrians are going to lose the fight. Only when it's inescapable will they join the opposition, and then it'll be to offer their "good offices" to make any divestment as advantageous as possible. |
One of the reasons why the party never vested its trust in successive Cabinets formed since 1992 - including the current one upon its formation last November - is possibly related to the fact that it was never part of the government. But in previous cases, Hizbullah could afford demarking itself from the rest of the loyalist camp, knowing they clearly had the upper hand in Parliament, and that there were no chances they could be defeated. This time, however, the situation is different. With an important number of former loyalists joining the opposition's ranks, the margin of the loyalists' supremacy has been significantly trimmed: Subsequently, the votes of Hizbullah's 12 MPs will constitute a determinant factor in such a tight political battle. The suspense over Hizbullah's stand has persisted until the last moment, fueled by a variety of factors, including the fact that Hizbullah avoided taking a clear stand on Karami's government. |