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-Short Attention Span Theater-
Bird flu outbreak could kill 1.5 billion people
2005-02-04
This is the worst-case scenario keeping virologists awake at night, yet the world's scientists have failed to develop a plan to protect us SCIENCE is all about understanding the natural world. And a big part of that has always been understanding those bits of the natural world that threaten us, so we can protect ourselves. While medical science has helped keep disease from the door, we haven't licked it. For the past year, New Scientist has warned that an epidemic of bird flu in east Asian poultry could turn into the next great human plague. Twelve months on, you might expect that scientists would have worked out exactly what we're up against and how we should protect ourselves. Yet surprisingly - and scarily - they haven't. It is surprising and scary because the stakes are so high.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has so far had trouble infecting people, but when it does it kills 75 per cent of them. The fear is that it could evolve to spread easily between people -
Unfortunately the rest of the article requires subscriber access which I don't have.
Posted by:phil_b

#13  phil_b - What? Hmmmm.

Then your notion of the statement is what?

You know that it is a simple-minded statement befitting a 10 year old, not a professional - so that's why I reacted as I did.

There are cookbook reasons why viral strains are investigated, for both identification, initially, and possible intervention later -- or ignored, such as there's no value to the research. Why is the H5N1 bird flu virus being "ignored"? Or is it being ignored... I'd expect they could've discovered that info a hell of a lot easier than we can - and that's what the story should be about... Perhaps further in, in the subscription portion, they begin to get serious, I dunno.

Long ago I used to get Science News - an 8-16 page synopsis of what was hot across the bandwidth of science and medicine, but they didn't survive the print to online transition AFAIK. I've been looking for a decent replacement.

science.com might fill the bill, and a quick check offers the following article (subscription only) which seems to contradict this article.

GM Vaccine in the Works for Bird Flu
ScienceNOW 27 January 2004
Posted by: .com   2005-02-04 11:47:55 PM  

#12  Take Fairbanks off the sign and put Bethel and you have a deal, heh.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2005-02-04 11:33:02 PM  

#11  New Scientist is a widely read and respected magazine. While they are prone to orthodoxy they are certainly not a pressure group.

A longer article here covers the issue in more detail. I saw first-hand how a couple of hundred SARS cases caused panic and near collapse of a healthcare system, so perhaps I am more sensitive to the risks than others.

More generally, there are real risks out there and this is one of them (which is one reason I regularly attack teh global nonsense because it distracts us from the real risks. A point I made here 2 weeks prior to the Asian tsunami when I pointed out an undersea magnitude 9 earthquake was something people should worry about)

Will it happen? Probably not. Could it happen? You bet it could and there is not a lot we can do to stop it when/if bird flu becomes easily transmitted person to person. Will it kill a billion people? If it kills 10,000 then I doubt we can stop it killing at least that number.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-02-04 11:09:59 PM  

#10  Wherever this shit is starting to break I want Eason's ass there pronto.......(Rove doing an impression of Ted Turner on the phone to the CNN home office)
Posted by: Jeamp Ebbereting9472 aka Jarhead   2005-02-04 10:11:42 PM  

#9  "This is the worst-case scenario keeping virologists awake at night, yet the world's scientists have failed to develop a plan to protect us."

The site may be New Scientist, but this was not said by a scientist - it's idiot-talk. So I will write off New Scientist as yet another Science in the Public Interest wankeroo group.
Posted by: .com   2005-02-04 10:07:35 PM  

#8  It would be interesting to see how manyof the MSM showed symptoms the next day.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2005-02-04 7:50:53 PM  

#7  How about infecting Barbara Boxers panties with bird flu?

That would be an improvement over what she's most likely packing in there.
Posted by: Lil Dhimmi   2005-02-04 7:49:51 PM  

#6  Mr. Davis I was thinking along the same lines..How about the Blue States for starters? All joking aside, How about infecting Barbara Boxers panties with bird flu?
Posted by: Mr. Peepers   2005-02-04 7:44:22 PM  

#5  Howbout Berzerkly? Any chances that it would feel at home?
Posted by: Sobiesky   2005-02-04 7:34:47 PM  

#4  Disorganized ya say? Sacramento is toast.
Posted by: Rex Mundi   2005-02-04 7:14:36 PM  

#3  Mrs D, most fatalities would occur in 'disorganized' states - Africa, Middle East, Ex-soviet Union. India, China and SE Asia could go either way. Developed states could control it but it would require martial law.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-02-04 7:05:18 PM  

#2  Is there any way to control which 1.5 billion?
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2005-02-04 6:56:32 PM  

#1  M-O-O-N spells 'bad'.
Posted by: Rex Mundi   2005-02-04 6:51:34 PM  

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