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| 2005-01-26 |
| An interesting follow-up on the Rantburg discussion on biowarfare. From Nat'l Review Online, The Kerry Spot (scroll down) A FEW MORE THOUGHTS ABOUT SMALLPOX AND EPIDEMICS
[01/24 10:46 PM] Boy, David Frum is right, NRO readers collectively know everything about everything. So do Rantburgers, but I won't argue with a man on his own blog about the calibre of his readers ;-) TKS reader Mike, who was a microbiology major during the glory years of KC and the Sunshine band (which he compares to Ebola), writes in: At any rate, on one hand, it is remarkable simple to manufacture virulent strains of some really nasty stuff. But, the virulence comes at a price. VOLUME. You need a crap load of the stuff to really do the job. AND, it's pretty fragile too. Why do you think it takes a lab with all the fancy schmancy heaters/coolers, humidifiers, etc to make it? Once made, it needs that type of environment to survive. I'm not saying I'd go out and drink a margarita of cholera mind you, I'm just saying that delivery really gets to be a female dog if you get my meaning. So, I live in Arizona, a few million people going about their day-to-day lives. Typical day in January-High Temps in the 60's (eat your heart out) lows in the 30's to 40's. Humidity around 18% or so. Winds light gusting to maybe 15mph. From what I understand, you'd have to almost saturate 100 sq miles and I mean SATURATE the ground, buildings, etc for any form of virus, bacteria, disco band to have any penetration. You'd need a crop-duster to do this flying almost at roof-top level. And remember, that for the most part people are wearing clothes. Time to infection is crucial. Most places just are not habitable for these things. ALL the conditions, not just some or even most, ALL, need to be there, temperature, humidity, wind patterns, susceptibility of people, virulence half-life, incubation period, response, etc. Now, if someone did develop the super resistant, super virulent bugga-boo, what's to stop it? If you're the developer, you gotta test it right? How's that gonna go? How do you keep it a secret. Like the proverbial genie, once it's literally out of the bottle, there's no putting it back in. How do you keep it contained in these places? It's not like, your other reader pointed out, the ME emirs would stockpile any sort of vaccine or antidote would they? This type of research just cannot be done in the black. Well, maybe we could or are, but Iran? Syria? Indonesia? Please, just not likely to happen. Echoing some of his thoughts, TKS reader Richard observes, "Before they used the Sarin gas, the Aum followers tried spraying botulism toxin and anthrax spores in Tokyo. They didn't make anyone ill with those, but that was due to their technical incompetence. If they'd had access to smallpox, I have no doubt they would have used it. And given the low level of general immunity in the human population now, it would have been horrific." And TKS reader Michael Bellomo tips us off to the June 2005 release of his book, with co-author Dr. Alan Zelicoff, that discusses how to detect and minimize the effects of a bioterrorism event - called Microbe: Are we Ready for the Next Plague?. I look forward to reading it, next time I feel like I'm sleeping too soundly. Me, too. I've added it to my books I want list. |
| Posted by:trailing wife |
| #4 You got it Lex or perhaps a parade of some sort. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2005-01-26 7:27:29 PM |
| #3 Frankly, the next terror attack seems far more likely to be small arms fire in a densely crowded open public space, maybe a dozen or two dozen fascists doing the firing. Probably at a mall or in a subway. |
| Posted by: lex 2005-01-26 3:43:27 PM |
| #2 More long term, you would have a divergance of opinion regarding ground zero issues. Was it an isolated "no big deal" event for those not impacted early or a more than subtle "I ain't shopping at that Walmart anymore"? Would business in the nebulous decontamination zone have to relocate by necessity, or just because all of their customers are going to other places. What about your housing value? If a little mold can screw up a house closing deal, what about the uncertainty over the longer term effects of having an event in your major metropolitan area? Money lenders do not like uncertainty, and there is plenty of it in this scenario. Pity the bastard that just closed on his dream home the week before. |
| Posted by: Capsu78 2005-01-26 3:29:31 PM |
| #1 Even given that a bioweapon would be seriously difficult to manufacture and deploy, it could still have a major psychological effect. I think that any bioweapon would function like a dirty nuke: not all that dangerous in and of itself, but possibly leading to lethal panic among the uninformed. Usage in a subway system or a heavily trafficked public building -- say, the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum during the summer months -- coupled with an announcement to the public about what was done could lead to stampedes and the like. |
| Posted by: Jonathan 2005-01-26 11:27:38 AM |