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Europe
Post-Modern Warfare
2005-01-19
Stephen Green, the Vodkapundit, has some thoughts:
We call the French "cheese-eating surrender monkeys." The Germans, for all their fearsome reputation, haven't thrown a winning war since 1870. It took Italy two wars before it could beat godforsaken Ethiopia. Poland owes its national existence to the kindness of strangers negotiating around a Versailles conference table. The last time the Spanish won a war, they were fighting each other — and so ineptly that the damnable, sad affair was half-fought by foreigners.

But make no mistake: The Europeans are good at killing. Revolutionary France started the first modern revolution in warfare by inventing the mass army of conscription. A Brit, James Puckle, invented the machine gun. Put the two together, and you get the First World War — global war and "total war" being two other European gifts to the world, wrapped into one shiny little conflict.

From tanks to civilian bombing to Hitler's ovens, Europe has given the world more ways to kill more numbers of people than probably any other continent. In fact, Europeans named Lenin and Hitler invented those killing machines we call "totalitarian states."

Not that each and every one of those items is a bad thing. Were it not for the tank, Europe might still be fighting on the Western Front, nearly 91 years after the Great War started. Civilian bombing certainly shortened that war's popular 1939 sequel. Despite some local atrocities, it's hard to argue that European colonialism wasn't more civil for western Africa and the Middle East than the local governments they have in those places today. And how did European nations become global empires? In no small measure because of their talents for killing.

Anyway, that's what popped into my head after reading the most recent post here by Will Collier. After reading an article showing that the Netherlands (former owners of Indonesia, one of the world's largest Muslim nations) could be majority-Islamic fairly shortly, Will said:

What happens 20 or 30 years from now, when demographic trends could well result in "minority-majority" (or even outright majority) status for the Islamic cohort in western Europe? If they're faced with the options of dhimmitude or flight, where will the native Europeans flee to?
Why, here, of course.


What Will left out is the third option. If somewhere down the road the worst should come to worst, Europeans could always stay home and fight. And don't think they couldn't.

Problem is, the fight wouldn't be the pretty kind where you see a few bold arrows drawn on the map, confidently slicing through history and the enemy lines. We're not talking Desert Storm here, which you could draw with five arrows and lasted only 96 hours. We're not even talking about the Liberation of France in 1944, which took slightly more arrows and just six weeks. Oh, no.

We'd be talking about city fighting. But not the kind of city fighting you saw in Saving Private Ryan, where the likeable, well-trained and battle-hardened soldiers could call in an air strike just when all seemed lost. Thanks to modern Europe finally putting "ain't gonna study war no more" into nearly full effect, they hardly have any battle-hardened soldiers. They hardly have any soldiers left at all.

The city fighting we'd see in Europe would look like what we saw in Sarajevo ten years ago. You know, ragtag bands of men with no uniforms, stolen weapons, and a desire to kill anybody who looked Muslim (or on the Muslim side, European). Holland and Denmark would fare worst. They're both tiny, both have very high (and increasing) Muslim populations, and neither country has much of a modern military tradition. In this worst-case scenario, the likelihood of ethnic mob rule ala Bosnia seems high.

Want to take the worst-case a little further? Both countries border Germany, which might feel the very legitimate need to march in to restore Ordnung. I think we all know what usually happens once the Germans start goose-stepping through their smaller neighbors.

No, the result wouldn't be World War III (or V?). But Europe could very well become Bosnia on a continental scale, with all the devastation, mass graves, and ethnic cleansing that implies. You can bet, at best, there would be a whole lot of people put at gunpoint onto refugee boats bound for North Africa and the Levant. Assuming, of course, the Europeans win in such a scenario. If not, the poor refugees would speak languages much like our own, and be bound for our own shores — just like Will suggested.

Me, though, I'd put my money on the Europeans winning a war of mass, mechanized murder.

After all, they invented it.
Posted by:Steve

#23  I believe that something like this can, and probably will, happen here.

Rank and file lefties are mostly middle class fantasy-ideologues and status-seekers. With the exception of certain committed cadres, this group has have little capacity for sustained violence.

Their allies in the burgeoning Muslim gangs do, however. Keep in mind that average lefty or associated terror-sympathizers do not see the media as being on their side.
They are likely to interpret media soft-peddling (as in the NJ murders) as a sign of weakness in the larger society and a green light for further atrocities.

Beyond that, the middle class radical culture has forged many links and de facto alliances with violent groups. These now include white supremacist groups as well as minority racist elements like the Black Panthers and MECHA. Criminal opportunists, especially the drug culture and its violent gangs, may be expected to join this alliance.
Shielded behind the pop-left's media license, this alliance will grow in power and numbers, and its atrocities will multiply, until the pressure becomes unbearable and the larger society lashes out in an uncontrollable sequence of reprisals.
Posted by: Atomic Conspiracy   2005-01-19 4:36:33 PM  

#22  The article's dopey. The likely responses to muslim violence and increasing share of the population will be, first, state-driven corporatist-style co-optation attempts, with separate state institutions headed by "well-behaved" muslim leaders (cf Sarkozy's proposals in France). When these fail, you will see a public backlash against immigration and heightened police/judicial powers to detain and deport, which, combined with the demographic catastrophe, would deprive the euro economies of one of the greatest drivers of economic growth, a growing domestic consumer market. France already has accorded such powers to its judges and police; Germany is moving in that direction and Holland and Spain will soon follow.

When the effects of this are felt-- ie when eurozone growth slumps to close to zero, or actually slides into negative territory-- you'll see the third phase: relaxed immgration for educated Chinese and other Asian immigrants. The smartest policy would be to skip phases I and II and bring the Chinese and Indians into Europe now.
Posted by: lex   2005-01-19 4:35:25 PM  

#21  The frightening this is I believe the article. Bosnia and Croatia were lovely, civilized places before Tito died and the idiots took over.
Posted by: trailing wife   2005-01-19 3:56:10 PM  

#20  I've been reading up on the Franco-Prussian war recently, from William Manchester's The Arms of Krupp and several other sources.
One of the striking things about this period, frankly, is the stupidity and callousness of military tactics at the time. As in the American Civil War a few years earlier, commanders lined their brightly uniformed troops up shoulder to shoulder just as they would have at Waterloo. Manchester describes how the Prussian infantry kept their distance while the Krupp guns massacred the conveniently conspicuous French ranks.
Tactics didn't really catch up to firepower until the final stages of World War I, when the allies introduced tanks and the Germans their innovative storm-trooper tactics (not to be confused with the later Nazi gangs of the same name).
In the meantime, millions were slaughtered by artillery and machine-guns.
Posted by: Atomic Conspiracy   2005-01-19 3:43:27 PM  

#19  "The first Maxim predated both the "Potato Digger"

Gee, Mike, great minds think alike and so do we apparently.

As an addendum, the Krupp field-guns of 1870-71 had more in common with present-day artillery than with the bronze smooth-bores that still equipped most armies at the time. The biggest conceptual difference is the early breechloaders' lack of a hydro-pneumatic recoil mechanism, an invention credited to the French a few years later.
Posted by: Atomic Conspiracy   2005-01-19 3:35:13 PM  

#18  JR, the Maxim gun, which was recoil operated, predates the potato-digger.
The real revolution in European killing power was brought about by Krupp's introduction of the steel breech-loading cannon in the 1860s. Early models were accident-prone but the kinks were worked out at the cost of a few hundred dead gunners and the weapons were decisive in the Franco-Prussian war of 1870-71. This was fortunate for the Prussians and their German allies, because the French had both a superior rifle (the Chassepot vs. the Dreyse "needle-gun") as well as a primitive machine-gun, the Mitralleuse. Like the Gatling gun, the latter was externally-powered and therefore not a true machine-gun. It could be lethal though. Its great weakness was that it was carriage-mounted and deployed in batteries like artillery. German artillerymen were able to spot them at great range and demolish the batteries with their quick-firing Krupp guns.
Posted by: Atomic Conspiracy   2005-01-19 3:30:12 PM  

#17  Jamie:

Hiram Maxim invented the recoil-operated MG. The first Maxim predated both the "Potato Digger" (designed by John Browning, but which was gas operated) and Browning's later recoil-operated design (the ancestor of Ma Deuce) by several years--other than that, I believe you've got the history pretty right.

Spanish-American War buffs note: the "Potato Digger" makes a cameo appearance, along with the Krag-Jorgensen rifle and a lovely matte painting of armoured cruiser USS Brooklyn in the classic rip-snorting adventure movie The Wind and the Lion.
Posted by: Mike   2005-01-19 3:25:58 PM  

#16  Despite some local atrocities, it's hard to argue that European colonialism wasn't more civil for western Africa and the Middle East than the local governments they have in those places today. And how did European nations become global empires? In no small measure because of their talents for killing.

And now the residents of those former colonies are moving back to the old colonial powers. Colonialism in reverse.
Posted by: eLarson   2005-01-19 3:20:39 PM  

#15  Sorry - didn't mean to muddle things. Gatling made the first acceptable version of Puckle's idea, but it was not what is considered today as a machine gun. BD's spot-on. Maxim invented the first true machine gun

I was under the impression (with no dates to hand) that Browning inventing the first gas-driven automatic (Gatling being a mechanical multi-barrel repeater) that was referred to as a 'potato-digger' by the troops for the flap on the front of the weapon that would dig a hole in the ground (or body part) that happened to be underneath the barrel when it was fired. This weapon would have been carried into the Spanish-American War and was replaced by the water-cooled .30 for WWI and would have been the precursor to the recoil operated (I just realized that I am not for certain) Ma Deuce (may she live forever).

But it should be fun to watch the fireworks when the Euros finally realize that the Moorish invasions of the past millenia have finally had success and they find themselves in a close in knife-fight to the finish. Get the popcorn. Maybe we could make some cash on sniper-tourism . . . here's 50 rounds and a BMG, make good use of your time in Amsterdam . . .
Posted by: Jame Retief   2005-01-19 3:04:46 PM  

#14  American Rifleman had an article on the Puckle gun 5-10 years ago. If I remember correctly, it was a big revolver (2-3 inch bore?) that had interchangeable cylinders, so that you could continue firing while assistants reloaded the extra cylinders. The ammo was a type of canister shot, it came in "round shot for use against christians or square shot (cubes) against the Turks."
Posted by: Anonymous5765   2005-01-19 3:01:34 PM  

#13  It is entirely possible that the Muslim immigrants will integrate into the society. Anonymoose spells out the different possibilities quite well.

I just returned from Ankara Turkey. What I saw was a modern country that happened to have a majority Muslim population. I saw attractive women dressed to show their curves, plenty of people in bars, women driving and billboards with women's undie ads. The people I spoke to had no interest in living life under Sharia. All said they would fight to preserve their secular state. It was an eye opener for me.

That said, this was Turkey and if the immigrants to Europe are mostly Arabs, then the issue of sharia for them could be quite different.
Posted by: Remoteman   2005-01-19 2:42:46 PM  

#12  a typo above: integration

That requires learning and using the language of the country you live in, ESPECIALLY in all religious venues.
Posted by: leaddog2   2005-01-19 2:23:27 PM  

#11  Sorry, but why should I care about France or Germany or Belgium. It really is their choice, to die or live as Moslem slaves.

Holland, (if it succeeds at intergration) may be different.
Posted by: leaddog2   2005-01-19 2:21:18 PM  

#10  Over time, the US has discovered that there are three distinct generations that follow a wave of immigrants, with two possible outcomes. The two variants are based on whether it is *demanded* of the immigrants that they integrate, or not. The first generation are strangers in a strange land, speaking a strange language and willing to work at low-paying jobs while behaving themselves. The second generation are half in-half out: they are troublesome, forming mafias and gangs, and are neither part of the old world or the new. The third generation is either fully part of the new country, if they have been forced to integrate; or ghetto-ized and stuck in a second-generation pattern if they have not been integrated. Therefore, we can look to Europe to have different outcomes, depending on what policies are *now* in place. The Dutch want to force integration; whereas others are more concerned with encouraging outsiders to "preserve their cultural identity", even if it keeps them segregated and poor. A third, unfortunate pattern is suggested, and that is of "ethnic cleansing", conducted by their hosts. Ironically, it would be the 'liberal' treatment of such immigrants now, that would eventually result in this horror being visited upon them later.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2005-01-19 1:31:43 PM  

#9  Liberal leftish immigration policies--you reap what you sow dhimmis.
Posted by: John Q. Citizen   2005-01-19 12:39:27 PM  

#8  This article is scarry enough to have us look at our own immigration policy. The exodus from these Muslim backwaters to the civilized countries will undoubtedly lead to collapses in the democratic fundamentals these countries pride themselves on. Look at demographics the Muslims are breeding and spreading exponentially. We can't allow anymore into Europe and the US. Lord know's we don't know what to do with the ones we've got.
Posted by: Rightwing   2005-01-19 12:32:30 PM  

#7  Sorry - didn't mean to muddle things. Gatling made the first acceptable version of Puckle's idea, but it was not what is considered today as a machine gun.

BD's spot-on. Maxim invented the first true machine gun, was rebuffed in the US, and trotted his invention over to Europe, where there was business as there was some sort of conflict in progress. The Maxim Gun was the first. Green's being a bit obtuse - and lazy - methinks he just googled a bit and slapped the first item that appeared to fit his point into his piece - without really finding out the history of it. Not an egregious error except in the confusion sewn, heh.
Posted by: .com   2005-01-19 12:27:46 PM  

#6  "Europe could very well become Bosnia on a continental scale, with all the devastation, mass graves, and ethnic cleansing that implies"

What a chilling thought and exactly on the mark.
Posted by: TomAnon   2005-01-19 12:20:25 PM  

#5  Interestingly, Gatlin was a dentist.
Posted by: John Q. Citizen   2005-01-19 12:18:00 PM  

#4  I wondered about the inventor of the machine gun also.

Looked it up on the web and the following was obtained: The idea of a gun that would keep up a continuous stream of fire attracted inventors early in the development of firearms. In 1718 James Puckle invented what he called his Defence Gun. Placed on a tripod it was a large revolver with a cylinder behind its single barrel. Although the cylinder had to be turned manually it could fire 63 shots in seven minutes.

This would not be a machine gun as one thinks of it. Gatlin may have been the inventor of the machine gun around the time of the civil war.
Posted by: John Q. Citizen   2005-01-19 12:17:08 PM  

#3  Dr Gatling had a little to do with it, IIRC.
Posted by: .com   2005-01-19 12:15:48 PM  

#2  One quibble: I thought the American Hiram Maixm invented the machine gun, not this Puckle guy (who?!). As the story goes he was famously advised that, to make a guaranteed fortune, all he needed to do was to create something that would help Europeans kill each other in greater numbers. Duly enough, both sides used Maxims during WWI. Did Puckle invent a precursor? Da Vinci doodled multi-barrelled guns way back...
Posted by: Bulldog   2005-01-19 12:07:14 PM  

#1  Stephen Green said: Me, though, I'd put my money on the Europeans winning a war of mass, mechanized murder.

After all, they invented it.


...war of mass, mechanized murder??? Sounds like self-defense to me.
Posted by: John Q. Citizen   2005-01-19 12:03:25 PM  

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