CATASTROPHES unleash great human energies. For now, the world's attention is fixed on the stunning destruction wrought in South Asia, on global mourning. But the long-term effects of nature's terrorism may surprise us all. In the short-term, the misery is incalculable. Even after the last corpses have been buried or burned, survivors will continue to lack adequate shelter. Food and water shortages, the threat of epidemics and psychological paralysis will drag out the misery. Entire cities may not rise again. The key outcome of the disaster is going to appear in Indonesia, especially on the ravaged island of Sumatra, where Aceh province suffered the worst effects of the tsunami. Vast stretches of coastline, thickly settled, disappeared. Even now, the full extent of the destruction has not been surveyed.
Aceh lies in the far northwest of Indonesia's mini-empire of 17,000 islands. Islam penetrated there six centuries ago, arriving with traders from the Arabian peninsula. Early ties with Mecca gave the faith of the Prophet deeper roots and stricter tenets in Aceh than elsewhere in Indonesia, where Islam came later and Muslim beliefs are wonderfully muddled with folk religion, Buddhist strains and even hints of Hinduism. As a result, Aceh has suffered under a long Islamic insurgency that means to establish an independent state closer in spirit to Riyadh than to Jakarta. Wandering through Indonesia, I was struck by the complexity and humanity of the many local variants of Islam — and by the lack of interest in the Aceh-style intolerance the Saudis were anxious to spread throughout the country.
At present, the United States is doing the right thing — and the wise thing — by hurrying aid to Aceh. The efforts are critical in purely human terms, and they also help polish our tarnished relations with Indonesia, the world's most-populous Muslim country. But we need to have realistic expectations. The Acehnese may remember our help fondly, but aid alone will not change the province's centuries-old prejudices. Such change must come from within. We can play a constructive role on the margins, but the dynamic that matters is already at work within the local society. The question that matters is this: How will Indonesians interpret the disaster that has befallen Aceh? |