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Iraq-Jordan
US troops to withdraw from Iraq in 4 years
2004-12-07
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld indicated Monday that he expected American troops to withdraw from Iraq within four years, but he cautioned that any final decision hinged on the progress that Iraq's civilian government and security forces made by then. Asked by reporters traveling with him whether United States forces would be out of Iraq by the end of his second four-year term, Mr. Rumsfeld said, "I would certainly expect that to be the case and hope that to be the case." He noted that President Bush had repeatedly said American forces would stay as long as needed in Iraq. But his answer offered intriguing clues to his thinking on two crucial subjects: the duration of the American military presence in Iraq and how long he will stay in his job.
If they're gonna be out in four years, that means they won't be needed there in four years (or we'll have decided by then it's a lost cause, I guess...)
The Defense Department announced last week that it would increase the number of American troops in Iraq to 150,000, from 138,000, by early next month, to help provide security for the Iraqi elections on Jan. 30 and to keep pressure on the insurgency. Pentagon officials said the increase was only temporary, through next March. But many American military officers and senior Iraqi ministry officials have forecast that the United States will have to keep a sizable troop presence in Iraq for years to come to battle a resilient and deadly insurgency and to help prevent the country from spiraling into civil war.

Mr. Bush asked Mr. Rumsfeld last week to stay on as defense secretary, a request Mr. Rumsfeld confirmed Monday that he "enthusiastically" accepted. But he said they had not discussed how long he would remain, and he declined to go into the subject. Speaking to reporters aboard his plane on Monday, Mr. Rumsfeld struck an unusually reflective tone and ticked off several points that suggested he would relish the opportunity to serve another four-year term. Ultimately, of course, that decision rests with Mr. Bush. He said he enjoyed working with Mr. Bush, whom he called "an excellent executive," was in good health, had no young children and was eager to tackle of series of continuing professional challenges, from revamping the military's overseas basing arrangements to overhauling the Pentagon's personnel system. He remained defiant in the face of critics who say the United States failed to send enough troops to Iraq initially to handle postwar security and, now, to combat the insurgents.
Posted by:Dan Darling

#23  Leaddog is dead on. Iraq is not the war - merely one battle/campaign.
Posted by: JP   2004-12-07 10:09:04 PM  

#22  Iran WILL NOT be allowed to develop or keep Nuclear Weapons. You can draw your own conclusions on that, but I suspect that many Iraqi's will join us in the eventual move on Iran. However, Iraq's participation MAY NOT be a military move. It could EASILY BE the contrast between an Iraqi democracy and Iran's theocratic dictatorship.

As for Secretary Rumsfeld's comment, he is very cagy, so I will wait and see.
Posted by: leaddog2   2004-12-07 5:40:59 PM  

#21  I suspect that those troops will be on the move within the 4 year window, perchance to Syria, perchance to Iraq, perchance to Saudi, perchance to Turkey...
Posted by: RWV   2004-12-07 3:24:25 PM  

#20  And I see two groups sighing in relief, with a couple of potential reactions...

The asshats think they'll be around to see it - but reality says that's not likely.

Joe (Yagoub) Iraqi thinks, "Hmmmm. If they're leaving, then mebbe we don't need to march around carrying banners and other stupid shit... mebbe we should get bizzy with this election thingy..."

One can hope. :-)
Posted by: .com   2004-12-07 1:27:23 PM  

#19  I have to disagree here. I think it was brilliant. It tells the ordinary Iraqi that we will be leaving allowing them to want/enjoy our protection while it's here and to plan for the future when we are gone. This will prevent them from getting the Euro-complacency of depending on Americans while at the same time blaming us for being.

Rumsfeld has made clear - enjoy the protection we are offering now - we'll be gone soon and you're on your own.
Posted by: 2b   2004-12-07 1:21:54 PM  

#18  That's the only beneficial construction I can see, but it could have been done better privately.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2004-12-07 1:00:35 PM  

#17  I think he's signaling that Iraqis should not take American protection for granted.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2004-12-07 12:59:04 PM  

#16  Maybe he simply neglected to say those troops would be stationed in Iran by that time.
Posted by: BrerRabbit   2004-12-07 12:14:07 PM  

#15  I love Rummy, but... I hope this is some wheels within wheels thing beyond my ken. Sigh.
Posted by: .com   2004-12-07 12:01:35 PM  

#14  That's what they'll have to keep asking themselves every morning when they wake up and see a U. S. base across the border. Just that might have an ameliorative effect.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2004-12-07 11:44:12 AM  

#13  My question is this: If we stay in Iraq for 4 year, what about Syria and Iran? Are the plans for them scrapped?
Posted by: Charles   2004-12-07 11:35:56 AM  

#12  yep
Posted by: Frank G   2004-12-07 11:25:03 AM  

#11  I suspect it will be a lot like all American occupations. We'll leave the minute you formally ask us, but you live with the consequences. I wonder if the Phillipines have ever had second thoughts about throwing us out.

Frank, several eastern bases might come in even handier, I hope.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2004-12-07 11:18:09 AM  

#10  If you read the net, vice the MSM, the iraqi people know some of the terror and destruction going on in their country is the work of Iran and other neighbors. Once a stable government takes hold in the next four years, don't you think they will want some form of American military force, much like we did in Germany, to keep potential threats from using or threatening to use military force against them. However, it is better for the Iraqi to ask rather than for the American to insist.
Posted by: Don   2004-12-07 10:36:24 AM  

#9  Is it not also sending a message that if we stay in perpetuity there, that Iraqis won't have to exert quite as much energy and capital into their democracy themselves? What incentive is there for Iraqis to take responsibility for their country if we do all the tough lifting for years and years?

I agree with you to this extent Mrs D-we should avoid boxing ourselves into a corner with too explicit and rigid language about the departure date.
Posted by: Jules 187   2004-12-07 10:29:10 AM  

#8  post- election, sign long term basing rights (particularly those nice ones (H1, H3) we're renovating in the western desert) with Allawi
Posted by: Frank G   2004-12-07 10:28:30 AM  

#7  I agree completely that things are changing, but the Chinese curse. I don't know how long the Iraqis will want us there in what capacity. I wouldn't be surprised if they want us infidels out soon. I also wouldn't be surprised if they concluded it's a rough neighbourhood and it would be a good idea to keep a protector nearby. At come point we have to accept it's their country and we have to go with what they want.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2004-12-07 10:23:56 AM  

#6  fair enough. I just don't think they have 4 yrs...the landscape will look a lot different in less than a yr or 2, IMNSHO
Posted by: Frank G   2004-12-07 10:19:46 AM  

#5  I think the bad guys are not just al-Q, but Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia. So yes, I think they can wait and will. Their current strategy has failed and createing a new one is easier with a date certain for U. S. withdrawal. I agree that all it will take is a "revisiting" but it was still a bad signal to send to the enemy.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2004-12-07 10:12:46 AM  

#4  you think the bad guys can maintain status quo for one year, much less four? How would we be abandoning an ally? All it would take is a "revisiting" of security assumptions in a yr or two to change anything he said off the cuff today
Posted by: Frank G   2004-12-07 10:08:56 AM  

#3  He could have done the same thing by saying "As long as it takes." Any time you give squirrels like this light at the end of the tunnel, they gain a new weapon, patience. He should say we're still in Germany and Korea and we'll stay in Iraq that long if that's how long it takes. This is announcing the abandonment of an ally. As bad as 1975.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2004-12-07 10:06:07 AM  

#2  I disagree. He just put Iran, Saudi, Syria on notice that they can forget about us leaving after the elections next month - we've got unfinished business
Posted by: Frank G   2004-12-07 10:00:44 AM  

#1  One of the dumbest things Rumsfeld has done.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2004-12-07 9:45:44 AM  

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