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| Iraq-Jordan |
| The Sunni Arab War Against Elections |
| 2004-11-22 |
| November 22, 2004: Sunni Arab gunmen continue to fight for control of towns and neighborhoods throughout central Iraq. While some gunmen remain in Fallujah, the majority of those who are active are in Baghdad and Mosul. Both of these cities have large Sunni Arab populations. But Mosul has a large Kurdish population, and Baghdad a large number of Shiites. These non-Sunni populations provide endless numbers of recruits for the army and police. Too many Shia Arab and Kurdish families want revenge on the Sunni Arabs for murder, torture and abuse in the past. While the Sunni Arab thugs have the edge in experience, and reputation, their violence is not overwhelming. The army and police are fighting back, killing and arresting thousands of Sunni Arab gunmen. The Sunni Arabs don't like to dwell on the fact that they are only a fifth of the population, or that they get slaughtered whenever they get into a fight with American troops. Trying to disrupt the January elections is now a major goal for the Sunni Arab extremists. They can do some of that in Sunni Arab areas. But in the next ten weeks, the number of Sunni gunmen available for this may be too low to make much of an impression. The Sunni Arabs are fighting a losing battle. Trying to bring back the good old days of Sunni domination will only work if the Shia Arab and Kurd majority is too weak to resist. No wonder the Sunni Arabs hate foreigners so much. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #5 It's too late, IMHO, Lucky. Their time for derailing anything has passed. They're holed up in small pockets in Anbar Province, mainly, and all they can create is a tempest in a teapot. On Jan 30th they'll manage to kill some people, and before then too, of course, but it won't be enough. The Big Wheel started to turn, IMHO, when Allawi was selected as PM for the interim Gov't. He took awhile to get his sea legs, but he showed exactly the right stuff from post-Najaf on where I believe he began to seriously "get it". His statements about and backing for the Fallujah sweep were perfect and the jihadis don't have many places left they can run to and actually be effective. Hearing an Arab leader say "This is your last chance!" - and meaning it - was a real eye-opener for me, heh, and I'll bet it was UNbelievable to a shitload of Iraqis. Nope. Methinks the Fat Lady's warming up in the wings and soon the morons will have to play border games from Syria or Iran - until Teheran gets some deserved attention, that is... |
| Posted by: .com 2004-11-22 5:53:14 PM |
| #4 Possible sunnies are angling for that civil war now or a large sunni massacre in order to further regionalize the conflict by bringing SA and Syrian participation to a much larger degree. |
| Posted by: Lucky 2004-11-22 5:34:25 PM |
| #3 The elections will be fatal to them. Out of 18 Iraqi provinces there are only 4 or so where violence will hinder elections, and all of those are Sunni-dominated. Which means that on February 1, the Iraqi National Assembly will consist of clear electoral winners who are not ~80% Shi'a or Kurd but 95% Shi'a or Kurd. At some point ordinary, non-Ba'athist, non-jihadist sunnis will figure out that the greatest enemies of sunni empowerment in the new Iraqi reality are the sunni hard boyz themselves. What follows will be fun to watch. |
| Posted by: lex 2004-11-22 11:24:42 AM |
| #2 It may be their only remaining plausible goal. Once the game is really "on", their time ends. They can "get it" and participate and govern in those areas where they numerically dominate - or be permanently marginalized and, eventually, hunted down for their murderous and larcenous traditions. Choices. The one they want isn't on the list anymore. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-11-22 11:17:31 AM |
| #1 Bingo. The situation isn't, as the MSM spin it, one of "chaos" caused by US "incompetence." It's the last gasp of the Sunni/Ba'athist elite before they become a minority player in a country dominated by the shi'a. |
| Posted by: lex 2004-11-22 11:15:36 AM |